Thursday, March 28, 2024

How President Trump Could Score a Huge Win in Venezuela

President Trump wasrecently presented with one of the greatest foreign policy tests of hisadministration when Nicolas Maduro’s regime closed its doors to humanitarianaid attempting to enter Venezuela by land and sea.

Despite the UnitedStates’ dubious history of intervention in Latin American politics, theadministration has been right not to ignore the politicaland humanitarian crisis unfolding south of our border.

If the Trump administration continues to respond to Venezuela as a humanitarian crisis (rather than a military one) by fighting for the delivery humanitarian aid and laying the groundwork for a negotiated political settlement, President Trump will have the opportunity to score a meaningful diplomatic and foreign policy win for his administration.

From the outset of thecrisis Maduro’s government has increasingly resorted to violence, arbitrarydetention of dissenters, and other repressive tactics favored by dictators theworld over. Venezuela’s currency has depreciated in value to the point ofworthlessness — contributing to widespread food shortages and giving rise tothe phrase “the Maduro Diet,” illustrating a crisis so severe that some havereportedly slaughtered zoo animals for food.

It is little wonder thenthat more than 3 million Venezuelans have already fled the country; a numberthat’s sure to rise if needed food and medical supplies are continuallyblocked.

Trump campaigned on thepromise to end our indefinite involvement in conflicts in the Middle East andelsewhere. Military interventions there have been a driver of regionalinstability as well as a refugee crisis that has had ripple effects throughoutEurope. But as we wind down our military presence in places like Syria, anopportunity presents itself for America to redefine its role on the globalstage and for Trump to begin to define his foreign policy legacy.

The administration’sresponse so far shows that the United States is still uniquely placed tocoordinate and leverage international pressure to achieve through peace whatforce cannot. Soon after Trump recognized Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s onlylegitimate, democratically elected leader, the overwhelming majority of Centraland South American countries followed suit. At present, 50 countries comprisingregional powers as well as important European allies stand in opposition toMaduro’s continued reign.

The next step must be thealleviation of human suffering in Venezuela.

Maduro has used theprospect of U.S. military intervention as pretense to deny aid shipments andput the military on high alert, but the worsening economic situation andU.S.-led show of unity against him has weakened his position significantly. Atpresent, the military’s support for Maduro is the only thing preventing thedistribution of aid and the organizing of new elections — and the dozens ofdefectors this past weekend show their support for Maduro is increasinglywaning.

This being the case, thebest course of action is to shore up the resolve of the internationalcommunity, continue to earnestly offer assistance to Venezuelans in need, andpressure and shame Maduro on the international stage for ensuring the sufferingof his own citizens in hopes of holding onto power.

We believe strongly that reports of the decline of American soft power have been greatly exaggerated, and that the Trump administration can use it to great effect in Venezuela. By mobilizing the international community to speak with one voice against Maduro, vocally supporting free and fair elections, and providing humanitarian assistance to those who are suffering, Trump can flip the page on American foreign policy. The “Trump Doctrine” can be one of re-establishing and effectively using American soft power to promote freedom and democracy without forceful intervention.

Author’s Note: Joshua Sande, a former researcher at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, also contributed to this report.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

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