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Saturday, October 4, 2025

Category: Economy
September 5, 2025
William Upton
Economy

Too Late Powell: August Jobs Report Will Likely Force Rate Cut.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the addition of only 22,000 jobs in August, with significant downward revisions for prior months, likely signalling a slowing labor market.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The U.S. labor market, with notable changes in employment among various demographic groups and industries.

📍WHEN & WHERE: The report was released on September 5, 2025, reflecting employment data for August 2025 across the United States.

🎯IMPACT: The data underscore a weakening labor market, leading to increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates by 25bps later this month—though a 50bps cut could now be on the table.

IN FULL

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment report for August 2025, revealing a significant slowdown in job creation. Only 22,000 jobs were added, falling short of Wall Street’s expectations of 75,000. Additionally, revisions to previous months showed June’s numbers dropping to -13,000, marking the first negative print in five years.

August’s lower-than-expected job growth—along with the June negative revision—may put a 50bps cut to interest rates on the table for the Federal Reserve‘s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Markets appear to have already priced in a 25bps rate cut for the FOMC’s September meeting. Concerningly, lagging demand and slowing job growth suggest Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s fixation with the possibility of renewed inflation blinded the central bank to the deflationary pressures impacting the economy.

Notably, the unemployment rate only increased slightly to 4.3 percent, with 7.384 million unemployed individuals. Among major demographic groups, unemployment rates rose for blacks (7.5 percent), whites (3.7 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.3 percent). Labor force participation edged up to 62.3 percent, while the employment-population ratio remained steady at 59.6 percent.

Full-time employment saw a sharp decline, with 357,000 jobs lost, while part-time employment surged by 597,000, the largest increase since February. The number of native-born workers dropped by 561,000, while foreign-born workers increased by 50,000. Additionally, the number of multiple jobholders rose by 443,000, reaching 8.785 million, the highest since COVID-19 pandemic.

Hourly earnings increased by 0.3 percent month-over-month, aligning with expectations, but the annual growth rate slowed to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent the previous month. The average workweek remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, with manufacturing seeing a slight decline in hours worked.

Industry-specific data showed gains in healthcare (+31,000) and social assistance (+16,000), while federal government employment fell by 15,000, continuing a downward trend of over 100,000 jobs cut since President Donald J. Trump enacted his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cost-cutting effort earlier this year.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction also experienced job losses (-6,000), as did wholesale trade (-12,000) and manufacturing (-12,000). Most other sectors saw little change in employment.

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September 4, 2025
Economy
Lawfare

Trump Takes Tariff Fight to the Supreme Court.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to swiftly review a lower court ruling that invalidated the President’s tariffs.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Donald J. Trump, the Supreme Court, the U.S. Court of Appeals, and attorney Jeffrey Schwab, representing the plaintiffs.

📍WHEN & WHERE: The appeals court ruling was issued last week, with the Supreme Court asked to hear the case as soon as November.

💬KEY QUOTE: “Few cases have so clearly called out for this Court’s swift resolution.” – Trump administration filing.

🎯IMPACT: If the ruling stands, President Trump’s tariffs would be rescinded, significantly affecting his trade policies and negotiations.

IN FULL

The Trump administration is petitioning the U.S. Supreme Court to quickly review a lower court decision that found the President’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact certain tariffs was unconstitutional. According to the filing, the Trump White House is requesting that the high court hear arguments as soon as November. Notably, the lower court ruling is currently stayed from taking effect until October 14, 2025.

In the filing, the administration argues the U.S. Court of Appeals ruling “gravely undermines the President’s ability to conduct real-world diplomacy and his ability to protect the national security and economy of the United States.” The filing further states, “That decision casts a pall of uncertainty upon ongoing foreign negotiations that the President has been pursuing through tariffs over the past five months, jeopardizing both already-negotiated framework deals and ongoing negotiations.”

On August 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority under the IEEPA to impose tariffs. The court stated, “Absent a valid delegation by Congress, the President has no authority to impose taxes. Given these considerations, we conclude Congress, in enacting IEEPA, did not give the President wide-ranging authority to impose tariffs of the nature of the Trafficking and Reciprocal Tariffs simply by the use of the term ‘regulate … importation.’”

Under the IEEPA—enacted in 1977—the President is empowered to impose tariffs after declaring a national emergency. Earlier this year, President Trump declared a national emergency over foreign trade practices, stating that reciprocal tariffs were necessary to protect American workers and strengthen the U.S. economy. Subsequently, the Trump White House has reached bilateral trade agreements with a number of U.S. trade partners, while the tariffs have brought in record revenue for the federal government.

Jeffrey Schwab, representing the plaintiffs, expressed confidence in the legal arguments against the tariffs, saying, “Both federal courts that considered the issue agreed that IEEPA does not give the President unchecked tariff authority.” Meanwhile, President Trump criticized the “Highly Partisan Appeals Court” and warned, “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.”

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September 3, 2025
Economy
News

U.S. Oil Production Hits All-Time High Under Trump.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: U.S. crude oil production hit an all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, marking a significant increase over the previous month.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Key contributors included Texas, New Mexico, and the offshore Gulf region.

📍WHEN & WHERE: The record-breaking production occurred in June 2025, with significant activity centered in the Permian Basin, the Gulf region, and other key basins in the U.S.

💬KEY QUOTE: “The U.S. has now remained the world’s largest oil producer for six years in a row.” – Zacks Investment Research

🎯IMPACT: The surge in production is stabilizing global markets, boosting domestic energy security, and providing opportunities for key oil companies to thrive.

IN FULL

U.S. crude oil production reached a new all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, as President Donald J. Trump rolls back self-harming green policies and pursues “energy dominance.” The figure marks a significant increase from May.

Much of the surge in output comes from Texas, New Mexico, and offshore sites in the Gulf of America. These regions are producing at record levels.

At the policy level, the Trump administration has launched a sweeping overhaul of federal energy regulations aimed at boosting domestic production. In April, President Trump signed executive orders to roll back several Joe Biden-era environmental restrictions, including a federal moratorium on coal leasing and permitting delays. He has also unlocked 82 percent of the Alaska Petroleum Reserve for drilling.

In January, Trump’s nominee for Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, outlined a vision for achieving American energy dominance during his Senate confirmation hearing. Wright emphasized the need to remove burdensome regulations and support all forms of energy production, including fossil fuels, nuclear, and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Trump administration has stressed the economic benefits of its energy policy. On Labor Day, gas prices across the U.S. dropped to their lowest levels in five years. Energy officials credited the decline to expanded production and infrastructure improvements.

“President Trump campaigned on lowering costs and this Labor Day Weekend, the American people will see the results firsthand at the gas pump, with the lowest gas prices in years,” Wright said.

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September 2, 2025
Economy
News

Trump Tariff Revenues Hit Record $31 Billion in August 2025.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The U.S. collected over $30 billion in tariff revenues in August, marking the highest monthly total so far for 2025.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The Treasury Department, President Donald J. Trump, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and the Department of Justice (DOJ).

📍WHEN & WHERE: August 2025, with data released Thursday, and tariffs remaining in place through at least October 14.

🎯IMPACT: Tariff revenues for 2025 have already surpassed $183 billion, cutting the budget and trade deficits.

IN FULL

The Trump administration collected over $30 billion in tariff revenue in August alone, marking the highest monthly total of 2025 so far, even with data from the last three days of the month not yet factored in. According to Treasury Department figures released last week, total tariff revenue for the year has already surged past $183 billion, more than double what had been collected by this point last year.

Revenue has climbed fast in recent months, from $17.4 billion in April, to $23.9 billion in May, $28 billion in June, and $29 billion in July. At this pace, the government could match last year’s full-year tariff take in just a few months.

The surge comes as President Donald J. Trump’s trade agenda gains traction again, both economically and legally. Despite a federal appeals court ruling that said Trump overstepped by using emergency powers to impose global tariffs, the court has allowed the tariffs to stay in place through October 14. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the Department of Justice (DOJ) is appealing the anti-tariff decision to the Supreme Court.

Trump’s tariffs, aimed at levelling the playing field for American workers against sweatshop economies and countries that price out American expoirts through tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, are already “reshoring” jobs to the United States. For instance, GE Appliances recently announced a $3 billion investment to move manufacturing from China and Mexico back to the U.S. Products like refrigerators and water heaters will now be built in states like Kentucky, Georgia, and Tennessee, bringing over 1,000 new jobs. CEO Kevin Nolan said the goal is “manufacturing close to our customers.”

The U.S. goods trade deficit has seen major improvement, narrowing from $96.4 billion in May to $86.0 billion in June, thanks to falling imports, a sign that the tariffs are working as intended.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now projects Trump’s tariff policy could slash the federal deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, including $3.3 trillion in primary deficit reduction and $700 billion in interest savings. Customs duties alone could reach $200 billion by year’s end.

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August 30, 2025
Economy

Labor Day Gas Prices Hit Five-Year Low Under Trump.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: Americans are seeing the lowest gas prices for Labor Day weekend in at least five years, with additional savings on airfare, hotels, and car rentals.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Donald J. Trump, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, and GasBuddy analysts.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Labor Day weekend 2025, across the United States.

💬KEY QUOTE: “President Trump campaigned on lowering costs and this Labor Day Weekend, the American people will see the results firsthand at the gas pump—with the lowest gas prices in years.” — Secretary of Energy Chris Wright

🎯IMPACT: Families are saving money on travel and gas, with analysts forecasting further price drops in the coming weeks.

IN FULL

American motorists traveling over the Labor Day holiday weekend will pay the lowest gas prices in at least five years, alongside reduced costs for airfare, hotels, and car rentals. The Trump White House is touting a new report from GasBuddy, which states consumers will pay “the lowest price at the pump on Labor Day since 2020.” The administration says further relief is expected in the coming weeks.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt credited President Donald J. Trump’s energy policies, stating, “Thanks to President Trump fully unleashing American energy dominance, gas prices this summer are at five-year lows and families are saving significant money at the pump. President Trump ended Joe Biden’s Green New Scam policies and is making America affordable again.”

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright echoed the sentiment, highlighting the administration’s achievements, saying, “President Trump campaigned on lowering costs, and this Labor Day Weekend, the American people will see the results firsthand at the gas pump—with the lowest gas prices in years. His approach is simple and commonsense: more American energy means lower costs, more jobs, and more prosperity.”

GasBuddy predicts prices could drop below $3 per gallon on average this fall. Additionally, hotel rates have fallen by 11 percent, domestic airfares by six percent, and car rental costs by three percent compared to last year. The White House contends these reductions come as a result of President Donald J. Trump’s focus on revitalizing America’s energy sector and dismantling restrictive policies from the Joe Biden era.

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August 29, 2025
Economy

Trump Tariff Triumph: U.S. Sees Record Revenue, Lower Goods Prices, Stable Inflation.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: Inflation in July held steady, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge showing a slight deceleration in cost pressures, defying earlier predictions of tariff-driven price increases.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Donald J. Trump, the Federal Reserve led by Chairman Jerome Powell, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Data for July 2025, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.

🎯IMPACT: Despite fearmongering over tariffs, inflationary pressures have remained manageable, with consumer prices for goods showing minimal increases.

IN FULL

Inflation in July remained muted, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.6 percent from a year earlier, matching June’s annual pace. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2 percent, slightly down from the previous month’s 0.3 percent increase, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, increased by 2.9 percent annually and 0.3 percent for the month, aligning with Wall Street expectations. Services prices, the primary driver of inflation, rose 3.6 percent annually, while goods prices increased by just 0.5 percent.

Meanwhile, goods prices fell 0.1 percent in July, with energy costs dropping 1.1 percent and durable goods declining 0.1 percent. Over the past year, energy prices have dropped 2.7 percent, while durable goods prices rose modestly by 1.1 percent. These figures challenge earlier warnings from Federal Reserve officials about the inflationary effects of tariffs.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated, “Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” and warned of potentially persistent inflationary effects. However, consumer prices for durable and nondurable goods—the categories most affected by tariffs—have shown minimal increases despite trade tensions.

Consumer spending increased by 0.5 percent in July, driven by purchases of motor vehicles, financial services, and housing-related expenses. Personal income rose 0.4 percent, reflecting higher wages and employer contributions to employee benefits. After taxes and inflation, real disposable income edged up by 0.2 percent, providing consumers with modest additional purchasing power.

The National Pulse reported last week that a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis projects President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies could slash federal deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade through increased revenue.

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August 27, 2025
Economy

Here’s How Trump’s America First Economy Is Boosting Wages for the Average Worker:

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: President Donald J. Trump highlighted that his America First economic policies have resulted in a $500 wage increase for the average American worker this year, and the fastest blue-collar wage growth in 60 years.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Trump, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, and Treasury officials.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Across the United States since Trump’s inauguration in January.

💬KEY QUOTE: “The wages for blue-collar workers are now rising at the fastest rate in 60 years, which is so important to all of us around this table. The average American worker has already seen a $500 wage increase this year.” — President Trump

🎯IMPACT: Workers’ incomes are outpacing inflation, increasing purchasing power and signaling continued economic growth.

IN FULL

President Donald J. Trump has announced to the Cabinet that blue-collar wages are rising at the fastest rate in six decades, with the average American worker seeing a $500 wage increase this year. Trump emphasized the importance of this growth, noting its positive impact on American families and the broader economy.

“The wages for blue-collar workers are now rising at the fastest rate in 60 years, which is so important to all of us around this table. The average American worker has already seen a $500 wage increase this year,” Trump stated. He also highlighted that wages are outpacing inflation, providing workers with increased purchasing power.

Trump credited the stabilization of inflation to American energy production, thanking Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright for their efforts. “There’s no inflation because there’s been decreases, tremendous decreases, thanks to Doug and Chris, some of the people, the great job they’ve done with energy. Thank you very much,” Trump said. He also pointed to declining grocery prices, praising Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins for her contributions.

Joe Lavorgna, senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, echoed Trump’s optimism. He noted that the current 1.4 percent annualized wage growth for blue-collar workers is the second-fastest start for any administration in six decades, surpassed only by Trump’s first term. Lavorgna added that the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill, which includes incentives for factory and plant construction, will further boost blue-collar wages and job opportunities.

“Those are carpenters, electricians, plumbers, laborers,” Lavorgna explained, adding: “It also includes things like nursing assistants, people that work in retail and wholesale trade, basically the backbone of the economy. Those workers are going to benefit from the increased capital that companies are incentivized now to make those commitments, in addition to the building of factories.”

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August 27, 2025
Economy
News

Trump SBA Orders Lenders to Stop Debanking.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) issued a letter to its network of lenders requiring an end to politicized debankings.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, over 5,000 lenders, and the Trump administration.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Washington, D.C., under Executive Order 14331, with compliance deadlines set for December 5, 2025, and January 5, 2026.

💬KEY QUOTE: “Access to banking should not be a partisan issue—but far too many confirmed debanking cases have targeted right-leaning businesses, non-profits, and people—including Christian, pro-life, and Second Amendment organizations.” – Kelly Loeffler.

🎯IMPACT: Lenders must identify and reinstate wrongfully denied clients, submit compliance reports, or face penalties.

IN FULL

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) has ordered over 5,000 lenders to stop denying banking services based on customers’ political, religious, or ideological beliefs. This action follows Executive Order 14331, “Guaranteeing Fair Banking for All Americans,” signed by President Donald J. Trump, which aims to eliminate politically motivated debanking.

In a letter to lenders, the SBA warned that noncompliance could result in a loss of good standing with the agency and possible penalties. SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler stated, “Access to banking should not be a partisan issue – but far too many confirmed debanking cases have targeted right-leaning businesses, non-profits, and people – including Christian, pro-life, and Second Amendment organizations.”

Lenders are now required to review past account closures, identify clients denied service for ideological reasons, reinstate those clients where appropriate, notify them, and submit compliance reports by January 5, 2026.

Debanking practices drew national attention during the Barack Obama and Joe Biden governments. Programs like Operation Chokepoint targeted politically disfavored but lawful industries, including firearm manufacturers. Critics argue that these efforts used regulatory pressure to discourage banks from serving certain clients based on supposed reputational risk.

In March 2025, the Trump Organization filed a lawsuit against Capital One, alleging the bank closed over 300 business accounts in 2021 due to “unsubstantiated, ‘woke’ beliefs.” The suit contends the closures were politically motivated and caused significant financial harm. Separately, senior banking executives have reported pressure from regulators under Democratic presidents to sever ties with conservative clients. One executive described the pressure as clear and forceful: “When your regulator gives you a suggestion, it’s not a suggestion, it’s an order.”

Executive Order 14331 instructs federal financial regulators to remove “reputation risk” considerations from their policies. The order also mandates investigations into discriminatory banking practices, with regulators empowered to enforce penalties against institutions that engage in politically biased debanking.

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August 25, 2025
Economy
News

Trump Is Reducing His Planned Pharma Tariff on Europe, Here’s Why:

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The European Union (EU) avoided a potential 250 percent pharmaceutical tariff from the U.S., instead securing a maximum 15 percent levy as part of a broader trade agreement.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The Trump administration, the EU, President Donald J. Trump, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.

📍WHEN & WHERE: The agreement was announced on August 21 as part of ongoing trade negotiations between the two economic powers.

💬KEY QUOTE: “The America First Trade Agenda has secured the most important trading partner creating a major win for American workers, U.S. industries, and our national security. Tariffs should be one of America’s favorite words.” – Howard Lutnick.

🎯IMPACT: The agreement aims to address trade imbalances, promote U.S. industry, and secure lower pharmaceutical prices for Americans.

IN FULL

The European Union (EU) has avoided a looming 250 percent tariff on pharmaceutical exports to the United States, instead reaching a deal to cap such tariffs at 15 percent, according to a joint statement released on August 21.

The announcement revealed a high-level trade framework that formalizes a broader understanding reached in July. The agreement outlines the removal of all EU tariffs on American industrial goods and a mutual reduction in agricultural levies. Additionally, the EU is accepting a capped 15 percent tariff on European automobile exports to the U.S. and limits of up to 15 percent on EU semiconductor, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports.

This is a significant reduction from previously proposed tariff hikes. Seeking to reshore pharmaceutical production the U.S., President Donald J. Trump had previously said, “We’ll be putting initially a small tariff on pharmaceuticals, but in one year—one and a half years maximum—it’s going to go to 150 percent and then it’s going to go to 250 percent, because we want pharmaceuticals made in our country.”

This statement echoed Trump’s earlier threats against the EU. In March, he issued a stern warning, criticizing the bloc’s trade practices as “hostile and abusive” and threatening tariffs of up to 200 percent on key EU goods if the EU failed to adjust its trade policies.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick praised the new agreement on X. “The America First Trade Agenda has secured the most important trading partner creating a major win for American workers, U.S. industries, and our national security. Tariffs should be one of America’s favorite words,” Lutnick wrote.

The joint statement between Washington and Brussels noted that the deal “reflects acknowledgement by the European Union of the concerns of the United States and our joint determination to resolve our trade imbalances and unleash the full potential of our combined economic power.” The statement is described as “a first step in a process that can be further expanded over time to cover additional areas and continue to improve market access and increase their trade and investment relationship.”

Image: European Union 2019 – Source: EP.

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August 22, 2025
Economy
News

Trump Tariffs Projected to Cut Deficit by $4 Trillion.

PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that tariffs implemented by President Donald J. Trump could reduce total deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Trump and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

📍WHEN & WHERE: The updated projections were released by the CBO on Friday.

💬KEY QUOTE: CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote: “If there are no further changes in tariff rates, we project that customs duties from new and existing tariffs will total about $200 billion this fiscal year.”

🎯IMPACT: The analysis suggests that maintaining Trump’s tariffs would reduce federal borrowing and interest costs, leading to significant deficit reductions.

IN FULL

A new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis projects that President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies could slash federal deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade. The CBO, Congress’s impartial fiscal analyst, shared these updated projections on Friday.

If President Trump’s tariff policies persist for the next 10 years, the CBO estimates a $3.3 trillion reduction in primary deficits. Furthermore, the increased tariff revenue would decrease the need for federal borrowing, cutting interest payments by $700 billion, collectively driving the total deficit reduction to $4 trillion.

These findings highlight the potential of Trump’s tariff strategy to significantly lower federal deficits and reduce dependence on borrowing, in addition to its primary goal of making American products more competitive against cheap, foreign goods produced in low-wage economies, encouraging the “reshoring” of jobs to the United States.

“If there are no further changes in tariff rates, we project that customs duties from new and existing tariffs will total about $200 billion this fiscal year,” noted CBO Director Phillip Swagel.

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