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Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Category: Election 2024

trump biden
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

Quinnipiac, The Pollster Showing Biden in the Lead This Week, Ranks 36th for Accuracy.

A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac’s accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight provides several valuable measures for understanding how accurate a pollster has been in the past. According to their data, Quinnipiac ranks 15th overall by their custom rankings, which weight accuracy, number of polls conducted, and data transparency. When isolated for just accuracy, Quinnipiac ranks 36th overall. By comparison, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data, the New York Times/Siena poll is number one in both their custom rankings and by accuracy alone.

The Quinnipiac poll gives the Democrats a weighted three-point edge in the 2024 election, with the survey comprised of 32 percent registered Democrat voters, 29 percent Republican, 29 percent independent, and 10 percent who said other or do not know their affiliation. The last New York Times/Siena poll conducted in November showed Trump leading in five of the six key battleground states — indicating the former Republican President likely has a slight edge over the Democrat incumbent.

A bevy of polls fielded just after Quinnipiac’s show Trump and Biden in a statistical tie or Trump with an edge over Biden. Only one poll from YouGov for The Economist shows Biden with a lead (1 point). The RealClearPolitics polling average still has Trump with a 1.7 percent edge over Biden — even with their aggregate incorporating the Quinnipiac poll.

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A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac's accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles. show more
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

Former DeSantis Donor Robert Bigelow Backs Donald Trump With $20M Donation.

Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he’s made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he’s given $1 million towards the former President’s legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs.

Bigelow previously supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s Republican presidential primary bid — and was at one point the single largest donor to the pro-DeSantis SuperPAC Never Back Down. Early on during the Republican primary, however, Bigelow and other major donors jumped ship after raising concerns the DeSantis campaign was too reliant on the SuperPAC, out-of-touch with voters, and unable to raise small-dollar donations.

Late last year, the billionaire donor signaled he was considering redirecting his financial resources to the Trump campaign. “Who would you want as a commander? I’d want somebody that would be a hell of an ass-kicker if he needed to be,” Bigelow said in an interview at the time, concluding: “On the face of it, you lean toward Trump.” He continued: “I think Trump is too strong.”

The contributions made by Bigelow to the Trump campaign suggest major donors are beginning to come to terms with the inevitability of another Trump White House run. In the first two contests of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump posted historic wins, easily defeating DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley in Iowa and defeating Haley again in New Hampshire.

Political observers believe the former President is likely to win by double digits again in South Carolina, effectively ending any hopes Haley has of remaining in the primary.

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Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he's made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he's given $1 million towards the former President's legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs. show more
desantis
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

DeSantis PAC Blew $9,000 of Donor Cash On Vanity Jackets.

A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets.

Expenditures like expensive, customized jackets became the norm for Never Back Down — partly explaining why the SuperPAC sustained such a high burn rate of donor cash throughout the early Republican primary contest. From the start of the DeSantis campaign in the spring of 2023 to its implosion after the Iowa Republican Caucus earlier this month, Never Back Down blew through a staggering $131 million. On the other hand, the DeSantis campaign committee raised far less, resulting in a total spend of just $28.2 million. For comparison, former President Donald Trump’s campaign committee raised just shy of $20 million in the 4th Quarter of 2023 alone.

Pitfalls Of A Campaign Run Through the SuperPAC

Weak fundraising forced the DeSantis campaign early on to rely on the Never Back Down SuperPAC to run many operations that the campaign committee would typically handle. The SuperPAC took on not just ad spending — typical for such an entity — but funded ground-game operations in several states to the tune of $23 million.

The $131 million spent by Never Back Down was partly sourced from money DeSantis raised during his 2022 gubernatorial re-election campaign in Florida. As previously reported by The National Pulse, at the start of his presidential campaign, DeSantis transferred $82.5 million from his gubernatorial campaign PAC to Never Back Down. At least $21 million in funds supplied to DeSantis’s 2022 re-election by the Republican Governor’s Association may have ended up in Never Back Down’s accounts.

When all was said and done, the DeSantis campaign spent $1,697.96 per vote to come in a distant second in Iowa with just 21.2 percent of the vote. Former President Donald Trump captured 51 percent in his historic win.

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A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets. show more
February 2, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Data
Election 2024

Biden Disapproval Rises to 61 Percent, 65 Percent View Economy Negatively.

Joe Biden’s approval rating has dipped three points to 38 percent compared to December in AP/NORC polling, while disapproval is up two points to 61 percent.

The share of adults who view the economy negatively is down by four points but still stands at 65 percent overall, compared to 35 percent who view the economy positively. Opinions on Biden’s handling of the economy are similar, with 64 percent disapproving of his performance against 35 percent who approve.

Views on Biden’s performance overseas are also poor, with 60 percent saying he is managing relations with China badly. In terms of foreign policy in general, disapproval stands at an even higher 62 percent.

The AP/NORC polling on Biden, the economy, and foreign policy follows Morning Consult polling that puts Donald Trump ahead of the incumbent nationally and in all seven swing states.

Swing state voters seem particularly aggrieved by the Democrat’s performance on immigration, with six in ten Morning Consult respondents holding him responsible for the crisis at the southern border.

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Joe Biden's approval rating has dipped three points to 38 percent compared to December in AP/NORC polling, while disapproval is up two points to 61 percent. show more
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

Andrew Yang: ‘If Election Were Held Today, Biden Would Lose to Trump.’

In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden’s ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today.

Democrat Voters Don’t Think Biden Can Beat Trump

According to Yang, voters in several swing states and South Carolina have expressed concerns that Joe Biden is too old and insulated from criticism to realize that the Trump campaign could win in November. Yang said he’s heard concerns about Biden’s viability, especially among older Black female voters in states like South Carolina. He also pointed to the Democratic National Committee’s move to restrict primary challenges to Biden, which is dampening overall enthusiasm among Democrats he says.

“I had some conversations like that in South Carolina over the last number of days where people would actually come to me and say, do you really think Joe could lose to Trump?” Yang said, adding: “And I would say, not only could he lose to Trump, but if the election were held today, he would lose to Trump and the poll numbers are generally getting worse, not better.”

He continued: “The most extreme thing the DNC has done to stifle democracy is canceling the primaries in Florida and North Carolina and attempting to do so in another state or two.”

Democrat Establishment Is Content Risking Trump Win

Yang has been traveling the country on behalf of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN), who is challenging Biden for the Democrat presidential nomination. The Phillips campaign surrogate said he believes a lot of the potential primary challengers to Biden — like California Governor Gavin Newsom — declined to run because they’re content running in 2028 even if that means “…throwing the country to Trump who is beating Joe Biden in most every national poll and in the all-important swing states.”

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In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden's ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today. show more
February 1, 2024
Economy
Election 2024

Blackstone CEO Says ‘U.S. Isn’t Prepared For 4 More Years Of Joe Biden.’

Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats.

He questioned whether the nation could endure another four years of these economic conditions. “I don’t know that the country, frankly, is prepared for four more years of that,” Schwarzman said in Davos.

As of January 31, the U.S. national debt reached $34.1 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of the world’s next five largest economies: China, Japan, Germany, India, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, the U.S. federal budget deficit stood at $1.75 trillion. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio sits at around 122 percent. Schwarzman commented that the U.S. should aim to “get our financial house in order,” but he did not believe a significant financial crisis was impending.

Despite his warning, Schwarzman expressed optimism for the future of the American economy in 2024. He referenced the slowed economy as a normal response to high interest rates but projected that rates would decrease during the latter part of the year. With Blackstone measuring U.S. inflation at approximately 2 percent, the Federal Reserve’s target rate, Schwarzman said he is confident in the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.

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Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats. show more
February 1, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

Trump Zeroes In On Critical Union Voters.

The support of union households across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada increasingly appears to be the critical swing vote in the 2024 presidential election. An ‘arms race’ is underway between President Joe Biden’s and former President Donald Trump’s campaigns to secure the votes of rank-and-file union members. However, data shows that former President Trump may hold an early edge.

Just before the 2020 election, internal polling conducted by POLITICO showed a near dead-heat between Biden and Trump with 48 and 47 percent of the union vote, respectively. A similar trend is emerging in polling data heading into the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and President Biden have shown to be tied at 47 percent each among union voters, according to a recent poll. The erosion of union support for Democrats, as well as Republican gains under Trump, in large part explains the former President’s consistent lead in swing-state polling.

Trump Prioritizes Union Workers.

Trump has made it a point to court union voters this election cycle. During the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike last year, he traveled to Michigan, where he delivered a historic policy speech laying out his “Patriotic Protectionism” agenda. During the strike, the former President expressed a certain degree of solidarity with the auto workers and noted Biden’s electric car mandates were hurting the American auto industry.

Despite UAW president Shawn Fain announcing the union will back Biden, rank-and-file members indicate they’re willing to break for Trump.

The Michigan speech was followed by Trump sitting down with Teamsters union leader Sean O’Brien late last year. That meeting was followed up earlier this week with the former President sitting down again with O’Brien and rank-and-file Teamsters members to discuss his agenda should he retake the White House. When asked about a potential Teamsters endorsement, Trump said: “Stranger things have happened.”

Union Votes Can Swing Key States.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States has 14.2 million union members. During the 2020 election, former President Trump saw significant gains among union households in Ohio and Pennsylvania — with the former President only narrowly losing the latter to Biden. In Wisconsin and Michigan, however, Joe Biden was able to hold his vote margins among union members, heading off Trump’s efforts to flip both states in his favor again.

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The support of union households across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada increasingly appears to be the critical swing vote in the 2024 presidential election. An 'arms race' is underway between President Joe Biden's and former President Donald Trump's campaigns to secure the votes of rank-and-file union members. However, data shows that former President Trump may hold an early edge. show more
February 1, 2024
Economy
Election 2024

Ex-Soros Investment Chief Confirms ‘Trump Rally’ is Behind Stock Market Surge.

Billionaire investor Scott Bessent, former Chief Investment Officer of the Soros Fund Management, has confirmed that former President Donald Trump’s potential return to office is fueling the current surge in the stock market.

“We believe that equity markets are in the midst of a “Trump Rally” that will last as long as he remains ahead of Biden in the polls,” Bessent wrote to investors in his Key Square Capital Management fund on Wednesday.

“We strongly believe that a significant impetus for the recent rally in equity markets is the commanding lead that he holds over President Biden in early polling on both a national basis and in the key battleground states,’ Bessent added.

He also dismissed forecasts that anticipated a tumultuous second term under the former President, suggesting the future administration would resemble the relatively stable period of 2017-2018 rather than the more turbulent 2019-2020 pandemic timeframe. He projected a prospective Trump presidency would spur an economic boom, riding on deregulation, energy independence, and a resurged domestic manufacturing sector.

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Billionaire investor Scott Bessent, former Chief Investment Officer of the Soros Fund Management, has confirmed that former President Donald Trump's potential return to office is fueling the current surge in the stock market. show more
January 31, 2024
Election 2024
Media
News
Politics

Biden SuperPAC Makes Largest Ad Purchase in U.S. History to Target Battleground States.

The Democrat SuperPAC backing President Biden’s re-election bid is reserving television air time it claims will be the largest political ad buy in U.S. history. Future Forward plans to reserve $250 million worth of advertising through a variety of mediums across the country.

Future Forward says the bulk of its ad buy  — $140 million — will be committed to television, while the remaining $110 million will be spread across digital and streaming services. The spending represents a significant uptick from the group’s expenditure during Biden’s 2020 campaign, in which the Democrat-aligned SuperPAC spent $151 million.

Swing State Media Blitz

The SuperPAC plans to target critical battlegrounds, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a barrage of ads from August to Election Day. Future Forward’s campaigns are expected to spotlight topics such as Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and various Latino concerns in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

President Biden’s 2024 campaign committee and the PrioritiesUSA SuperPAC have already rolled out a strategy centered around a significant use of social media to mainly target the presumptive Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. The SuperPAC and Biden campaign’s aggressive spending is likely in response to recent polls showing Trump leading the Democrat incumbent in most swing states.

Polls indicate that concerns about the 81-year-old Biden’s advanced age, his handling of inflation, increasing global instability, and the ongoing border crisis are fueling voter uncertainty toward his re-election.

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The Democrat SuperPAC backing President Biden's re-election bid is reserving television air time it claims will be the largest political ad buy in U.S. history. Future Forward plans to reserve $250 million worth of advertising through a variety of mediums across the country. show more
January 30, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Election 2024
Politics

Trump’s Lead Over Biden Grew Again After the E. Jean Carroll Verdict.

Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Joe Biden nationally in the latest Morning Consult poll, with a particularly strong 12-point lead over the incumbent among Independents. The data comes on the back of the E. Jean Carroll verdict against Trump, wherein a Manhattan jury awarded the advice columnist a whopping $83M.

Overall support for Trump stands at 44 percent, while support for Biden stands at 42 percent — a slight narrowing of the gap since the last Morning Consult poll.

Trump’s lead among Independents is much stronger, however. His share of Independent support had increased by four points to 42 percent, while Biden’s share of Independent support languishes at just 30 percent, far behind his predecessor despite a two-point bump.

Contrary to the claims of Trump’s GOP rival Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley, the survey also suggests he is the “more electable” of the two. This is due to “a significant appetite among Republicans for a third-party vote in the event of a Biden-Nikki Haley matchup — especially in battleground states.”

The 45th President continues to dominate Haley in primary polling, 81 percent to 18 percent.

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Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Joe Biden nationally in the latest Morning Consult poll, with a particularly strong 12-point lead over the incumbent among Independents. The data comes on the back of the E. Jean Carroll verdict against Trump, wherein a Manhattan jury awarded the advice columnist a whopping $83M. show more