The lead Donald Trump holds over Joe Biden in terms of who would handle the economy better is the biggest of any candidate in the history of NBC polling.
The network, which began asking voters which candidate for the presidency would handle the economy better in 1992, found that 55 percent of voters believed that Trump would do the better job, compared to just 33 percent who put their faith in Biden.
Forty-eight percent also rated Trump as more likely to be competent and effective, against just 37 percent for Biden. In 2020, Biden led Trump on this measure by nine points, but his advantage has evaporated now voters have seen him in action in the White House.
The 81-year-old Democrat’s approval rating currently sits at 37 percent, lower than at any point in either his presidency or his predecessor’s.
Trump now leads Biden in all seven swing states, by margins as high as ten percent in North Carolina and eight percent in Nevada and Georgia — both officially won by Biden in 2020.
📊 NBC News National Poll Highlights
▪ 55% – Proportion of voters who believe that Trump is better dealing with the economy than Biden (33%) — the largest advantage of any candidate in the NBC poll's history back to 1992. — ▪ 48% – Share of voters who say that Trump will do a… pic.twitter.com/r18J9unWby
The lead Donald Trump holds over Joe Biden in terms of who would handle the economy better is the biggest of any candidate in the history of NBC polling.
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Editor’s Notes
Behind-the-scenes political intrigue exclusively for Pulse+ subscribers.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reportedly hid in the back of his own political action committee’s campaign bus, fearing that same committee was spying on his actions as fractures grew between his campaign proper and the “Never Back Down” arms-length operation.
In a devastating new report by writer Marc Caputo, DeSantis’s campaign is revealed to have been at odds with itself and his PAC from day one, with major blowups over their infamous failed launch, state-level strategies, and staffing issues.
“DeSantis was so concerned he was being spied on by Never Back Down staff that he would try to isolate himself in the back of the super PAC’s bus during swings through Iowa,” wrote Caputo in a lengthy telling of DeSantis’s short-lived campaign tale.
“This should be a course they teach at Harvard over how not to lead an organization. The super PAC can’t coordinate with the campaign. And the super PAC was micromanaged in a weirdly opaque way,” one source told Caputo.
Another stand-out moment in the article describes the tensions between the campaign and the PAC:
It was a constant power struggle from the jump: The DeSantis operation in Tallahassee pitted against Roe’s Axiom team in Atlanta. The Tallahassee crew thought the professional consultants were pretend experts who masked fecklessness with data and jargon, while Atlanta thought Tallahassee exemplified a Dunning–Kruger effect of inexperienced rubes overestimating their abilities.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reportedly hid in the back of his own political action committee’s campaign bus, fearing that same committee was spying on his actions as fractures grew between his campaign proper and the “Never Back Down” arms-length operation.
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Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley’s campaign is working to downplay the fact they cannot win a single delegate in the Nevada Republican presidential nomination contest. Haley opted last year to appear on the state-run primary ballot, which the Nevada Republican Party does not recognize. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump will compete in the Republican Party-run Nevada Caucus, which will allocate delegates for this summer’s Republican National Convention.
“We have not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada,” said Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney earlier today, adding: “We made the decision early on that we were not going to pay $55,000 to a Trump entity to participate in a process that was rigged for Trump.” Despite the Haley campaign spin, the Trump campaign was not the reason why the Nevada Republican Party moved the nomination contest to a caucus instead of participating in the state-run primary.
In 2021, Democrat lawmakers in the Nevada state legislature codified a state-run primary into law. However, they did not require state parties to allocate convention delegates based on the primary results. Nevada Republicans, concerned about election integrity following the 2020 election, moved to hold a separate caucus to determine who would be awarded the state’s 26 Republican convention delegates. Unlike the state government-run primary, the Nevada Republican Caucus requires paper ballots, same-day voting, and Voter ID.
While all indications point to former President Donald Trump handily winning the caucus, Haley may face stiff competition from the “none of these candidates” option, which will appear on the state-run primary ballot.
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Nimarata 'Nikki' Haley's campaign is working to downplay the fact they cannot win a single delegate in the Nevada Republican presidential nomination contest. Haley opted last year to appear on the state-run primary ballot, which the Nevada Republican Party does not recognize. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump will compete in the Republican Party-run Nevada Caucus, which will allocate delegates for this summer's Republican National Convention.
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Editor’s Notes
Behind-the-scenes political intrigue exclusively for Pulse+ subscribers.
In case you made it past all the links I’ve scattered throughout Will’s excellent article above, you should know that I have written a far more detailed explanation of this situation here in our analysis section! Enjoy!
In case you made it past all the links I’ve scattered throughout Will’s excellent article above, you should know that I have written a far more detailed explanation of this situation here in our analysis section! Enjoy! show more
A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac’s accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles.
New poll (Quinnipiac): President Biden leading Trump by 6 points. Fox News: “The trends here may be changing”. (Video: Fox News) pic.twitter.com/E63PQ8PQI2
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight provides several valuable measures for understanding how accurate a pollster has been in the past. According to their data, Quinnipiac ranks 15th overall by their custom rankings, which weight accuracy, number of polls conducted, and data transparency. When isolated for just accuracy, Quinnipiac ranks 36th overall. By comparison, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data, the New York Times/Siena poll is number one in both their custom rankings and by accuracy alone.
The Quinnipiac poll gives the Democrats a weighted three-point edge in the 2024 election, with the survey comprised of 32 percent registered Democrat voters, 29 percent Republican, 29 percent independent, and 10 percent who said other or do not know their affiliation. The last New York Times/Siena poll conducted in November showed Trump leading in five of the six key battleground states — indicating the former Republican President likely has a slight edge over the Democrat incumbent.
A bevy of pollsfielded just after Quinnipiac’s show Trump and Biden in a statistical tie or Trump with an edge over Biden. Only one poll from YouGov for The Economist shows Biden with a lead (1 point). The RealClearPolitics polling average still has Trump with a 1.7 percent edge over Biden — even with their aggregate incorporating the Quinnipiac poll.
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A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac's accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles.
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Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he’s made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he’s given $1 million towards the former President’s legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs.
Bigelow previously supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s Republican presidential primary bid — and was at one point the single largest donor to the pro-DeSantis SuperPAC Never Back Down. Early on during the Republican primary, however, Bigelow and other major donors jumped ship after raising concerns the DeSantis campaign was too reliant on the SuperPAC, out-of-touch with voters, and unable to raise small-dollar donations.
Late last year, the billionaire donor signaled he was considering redirecting his financial resources to the Trump campaign. “Who would you want as a commander? I’d want somebody that would be a hell of an ass-kicker if he needed to be,” Bigelow said in an interview at the time, concluding: “On the face of it, you lean toward Trump.” He continued: “I think Trump is too strong.”
The contributions made by Bigelow to the Trump campaign suggest major donors are beginning to come to terms with the inevitability of another Trump White House run. In the first two contests of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump posted historic wins, easily defeating DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley in Iowa and defeating Haley again in New Hampshire.
Political observers believe the former President is likely to win by double digits again in South Carolina, effectively ending any hopes Haley has of remaining in the primary.
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Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he's made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he's given $1 million towards the former President's legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs.
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A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets.
Expenditures like expensive, customized jackets became the norm for Never Back Down — partly explaining why the SuperPAC sustained such a high burn rate of donor cash throughout the early Republican primary contest. From the start of the DeSantis campaign in the spring of 2023 to its implosion after the Iowa Republican Caucus earlier this month, Never Back Down blew through a staggering $131 million. On the other hand, the DeSantis campaign committee raised far less, resulting in a total spend of just $28.2 million. For comparison, former President Donald Trump’s campaign committee raised just shy of $20 million in the 4th Quarter of 2023 alone.
Pitfalls Of A Campaign Run Through the SuperPAC
Weak fundraising forced the DeSantis campaign early on to rely on the Never Back Down SuperPAC to run many operations that the campaign committee would typically handle. The SuperPAC took on not just ad spending — typical for such an entity — but funded ground-game operations in several states to the tune of $23 million.
The $131 million spent by Never Back Down was partly sourced from money DeSantis raised during his 2022 gubernatorial re-election campaign in Florida. As previously reported by The National Pulse, at the start of his presidential campaign, DeSantis transferred $82.5 million from his gubernatorial campaign PAC to Never Back Down. At least $21 million in funds supplied to DeSantis’s 2022 re-election by the Republican Governor’s Association may have ended up in Never Back Down’s accounts.
When all was said and done, the DeSantis campaign spent $1,697.96 per vote to come in a distant second in Iowa with just 21.2 percent of the vote. Former President Donald Trump captured 51 percent in his historic win.
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A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets.
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Joe Biden’s approval rating has dipped three points to 38 percent compared to December in AP/NORC polling, while disapproval is up two points to 61 percent.
The share of adults who view the economy negatively is down by four points but still stands at 65 percent overall, compared to 35 percent who view the economy positively. Opinions on Biden’s handling of the economy are similar, with 64 percent disapproving of his performance against 35 percent who approve.
Views on Biden’s performance overseas are also poor, with 60 percent saying he is managing relations with China badly. In terms of foreign policy in general, disapproval stands at an even higher 62 percent.
The AP/NORC polling on Biden, the economy, and foreign policy follows Morning Consult polling that puts Donald Trump ahead of the incumbent nationally and in all seven swing states.
Swing state voters seem particularly aggrieved by the Democrat’s performance on immigration, with six in ten Morning Consult respondents holding him responsible for the crisis at the southern border.
AP/NORC: President Biden Job Approval
Approve: 38% [-3] Disapprove: 61% [+2] . The Economy Approve: 35% [+1] Disapprove: 64% [-1] . Description of the economy Net good: 35% [+5] Net bad: 65% [-4]
Joe Biden's approval rating has dipped three points to 38 percent compared to December in AP/NORC polling, while disapproval is up two points to 61 percent.
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In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden’s ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today.
Democrat Voters Don’t Think Biden Can Beat Trump
According to Yang, voters in several swing states and South Carolina have expressed concerns that Joe Biden is too old and insulated from criticism to realize that the Trump campaign could win in November. Yang said he’s heard concerns about Biden’s viability, especially among older Black female voters in states like South Carolina. He also pointed to the Democratic National Committee’s move to restrict primary challenges to Biden, which is dampening overall enthusiasm among Democrats he says.
“I had some conversations like that in South Carolina over the last number of days where people would actually come to me and say, do you really think Joe could lose to Trump?” Yang said, adding: “And I would say, not only could he lose to Trump, but if the election were held today, he would lose to Trump and the poll numbers are generally getting worse, not better.”
He continued: “The most extreme thing the DNC has done to stifle democracy is canceling the primaries in Florida and North Carolina and attempting to do so in another state or two.”
Democrat Establishment Is Content Risking Trump Win
Yang has been traveling the country on behalf of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN), who is challenging Biden for the Democrat presidential nomination. The Phillips campaign surrogate said he believes a lot of the potential primary challengers to Biden — like California Governor Gavin Newsom — declined to run because they’re content running in 2028 even if that means “…throwing the country to Trump who is beating Joe Biden in most every national poll and in the all-important swing states.”
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In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden's ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today.
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Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats.
He questioned whether the nation could endure another four years of these economic conditions. “I don’t know that the country, frankly, is prepared for four more years of that,” Schwarzman said in Davos.
As of January 31, the U.S. national debt reached $34.1 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of the world’s next five largest economies: China, Japan, Germany, India, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, the U.S. federal budget deficit stood at $1.75 trillion. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio sits at around 122 percent. Schwarzman commented that the U.S. should aim to “get our financial house in order,” but he did not believe a significant financial crisis was impending.
Despite his warning, Schwarzman expressed optimism for the future of the American economy in 2024. He referenced the slowed economy as a normal response to high interest rates but projected that rates would decrease during the latter part of the year. With Blackstone measuring U.S. inflation at approximately 2 percent, the Federal Reserve’s target rate, Schwarzman said he is confident in the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
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Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats.
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The support of union households across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada increasingly appears to be the critical swing vote in the 2024 presidential election. An ‘arms race’ is underway between President Joe Biden’s and former President Donald Trump’s campaigns to secure the votes of rank-and-file union members. However, data shows that former President Trump may hold an early edge.
Just before the 2020 election, internal polling conducted by POLITICO showed a near dead-heat between Biden and Trump with 48 and 47 percent of the union vote, respectively. A similar trend is emerging in polling data heading into the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and President Biden have shown to be tied at 47 percent each among union voters, according to a recent poll. The erosion of union support for Democrats, as well as Republican gains under Trump, in large part explains the former President’s consistent lead in swing-state polling.
Trump Prioritizes Union Workers.
Trump has made it a point to court union voters this election cycle. During the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike last year, he traveled to Michigan, where he delivered a historic policy speech laying out his “Patriotic Protectionism” agenda. During the strike, the former President expressed a certain degree of solidarity with the auto workers and noted Biden’s electric car mandates were hurting the American auto industry.
Despite UAW president Shawn Fain announcing the union will back Biden, rank-and-file members indicate they’re willing to break for Trump.
The Michigan speech was followed by Trump sitting down with Teamsters union leader Sean O’Brien late last year. That meeting was followed up earlier this week with the former President sitting down again with O’Brien and rank-and-file Teamsters members to discuss his agenda should he retake the White House. When asked about a potential Teamsters endorsement, Trump said: “Stranger things have happened.”
Union Votes Can Swing Key States.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States has 14.2 million union members. During the 2020 election, former President Trump saw significant gains among union households in Ohio and Pennsylvania — with the former President only narrowly losing the latter to Biden. In Wisconsin and Michigan, however, Joe Biden was able to hold his vote margins among union members, heading off Trump’s efforts to flip both states in his favor again.
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The support of union households across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada increasingly appears to be the critical swing vote in the 2024 presidential election. An 'arms race' is underway between President Joe Biden's and former President Donald Trump's campaigns to secure the votes of rank-and-file union members. However, data shows that former President Trump may hold an early edge.
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