New Iowa Poll: Is Cruz Stealing Away Carson Supporters?

November 3, 2015

by Paul Dupont

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (photo credit: Michael Vadon via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (photo credit: Michael Vadon via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Maggie, it might be a tad premature to be announcing Ben Carson as the GOP’s new front runner.

A new PPP Iowa poll released yesterday—the first post-CNBC debate Iowa poll—shows Donald Trump and Carson in a statistical dead heat, with 22 percent and 21 percent support, respectively.  This is the first major poll showing Trump with even the slightest lead in Iowa since late September.

Meanwhile, the big mover in Iowa since the debate appears to be Ted Cruz.  Following his stellar performance last week, Cruz has moved up to third in the PPP poll with 14 percent, the largest number he’s had in any major Iowa poll since he joined the race.  Marco Rubio was the only other candidate to crack double digits, with 10 percent.

Cruz’s rise seems to be coming at the expense of Carson.  Although some (including Cruz himself) expected the Texas Senator to eventually siphon support from Trump, the Cruz campaign’s focus on social issues, particularly religious liberty, as well as other issues of strong importance to Evangelicals has aligned more closely with Carson.  And as a recent Wall Street Journal article points out, Carson has been drawing much of his support from “values voters” and very conservative Republicans, while Trump’s support has come more from voters who describe themselves as fiscal conservatives or moderate/liberal Republicans.  Therefore, it would seem reasonable to conclude that Cruz’s surge and Carson’s slump are related, since both candidates are courting the same group of voters.

On a final, unrelated note, trailing only the top four candidates at 6 percent support in the PPP poll is another unexpected candidate: Bobby Jindal.  Shane Vander Hart argued here not long ago that Jindal has been extremely active in Iowa and should not be overlooked.  Now virtually tied with higher profile candidates Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, and Carly Fiorina, Jindal may be on pace to peak at just the right moment in Iowa, a la Rick Santorum in 2012.  He will certainly be a candidate to watch as we close in on the caucuses.

Paul Dupont is the managing editor for

Paul Dupont is editor of

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14 comments on “New Iowa Poll: Is Cruz Stealing Away Carson Supporters?”

  • jk105 says:

    The word “homosexual” does not appear
    in any English version of a Bible before 1954.  It was not a coined word before
    1863, and did not appear in any psychological treatise until 1894. 
    Today’s pastors, priests, etc. are just latching on to a highly-charged word
    made out of two Greek words that were never combined in the past, and those
    “Christians” who site Hebrews, Romans, etc. do not read the full text
    that lumps “homosexual” with “drunkards, blasphemers” et
    al.  If religion must be incorporated into a civil function (taking an
    oath)–which I personally oppose–then at least use correct texts in
    context–not some bigot’s attempt to become a deity and recreate a book written
    in the last 1900 years (the bible was not even issued until 385 CE and then
    under the orders of the Emperor Constantine who demanded that the Arian Bishop
    Eusebius of Cesaraea craft it for 50 Eastern churches after Constantine I
    created his “catholic [universal] church” in 325 CE (Eusbius,
    Constantini Vita, 36-37, in Greek [English did not exist then]).

  • jk105 says:

    Those are quotes from the Bible you are calling stupid.
    You pray to Satan.

  • Jim144 says:

    jk105 Jim144 
    :) Are you THAT stupid?

  • jk105 says:

    Jim144 jk105 Bible Endorses
    Exodus 21:1-4: “If thou buy an Hebrew servant, six
    years he
    shall serve: and in the seventh he shall go out free for nothing. If he came in
    himself, he shall go out by himself: if he were married, then his wife shall go
    out with
    him. If his master have given him a wife, and she have born him sons or
    daughters; the
    wife and her children shall be her master’s, and he shall go out by
    Deuteronomy 15:12-18: “And if thy brother, an Hebrew man, or
    an Hebrew woman, be sold unto thee, and serve thee six years; then in the
    seventh year
    thou shalt let him go free from thee.And when thou sendest him out free from
    thee, thou
    shalt not let him go away empty: Thou shalt furnish him liberally out of thy
    flock, and
    out of thy floor, and out of thy winepress: of that wherewith the LORD thy God
    blessed thee thou shalt give unto him.”
    Exodus 21:7: “And if a man sell his daughter to be a
    maidservant, she shall not go out as the menservants do.”
    Leviticus 25:44-46: “Your male and female
    slaves are to come from the nations around you; from them you may buy
    slaves. You may also buy some of the temporary residents living among
    you and members of their clans born in your country, and they will
    become your property. You can will them to your children as inherited
    property and can make them slaves for life, but you must not rule over
    your fellow Israelites ruthlessly.” (NIV)
    Leviticus 25:48-53: “After that he is sold he may be redeemed
    again; one of his brethren may redeem him: Either his uncle, or his uncle’s
    son, may
    redeem him, or any that is nigh of kin unto him of his family may redeem him;
    or if he be
    able, he may redeem himself. And he shall reckon with him that bought him from
    the year
    that he was sold to him unto the year of jubilee: and the price of his sale
    shall be
    according unto the number of years, according to the time of an hired servant
    shall it be
    with him.”
    The Bible even says that
    slaves are property. How can this be justified?
    Exodus 21: 20 and 21 says,
    “20”If a man
    strikes his male or female slave with a rod and he dies at his hand, he shall
    be punished.
    21″If, however, he survives a day or two, no vengeance
    shall be taken; (M) for he is his property.

  • jk105 says:

    So in other words you indeed butcher the Bible, toss aside the bits you do not like (the multitude of sanctions favoring slavery), but use the bits you like (barbarically anti gay) as a weapon to hurt people you hate. I totally addressed you comments. You embrace the Sodom story, where Lot offers his daughter up for rape and your God rewards him for this deed by sparing only him from destruction.
    You worship depravity.
    Jesus is not your Savior. Jesus never said a word about homosexuality. Your savior is Satan.

  • Jim144 says:

    jk105 Jim144 
    I toss nothing that is of history or is the doctrine of today. You on the other hand toss out the multitude of commands against fornication and homosexuality. 
    You did not even address my comments, but I knew you would not because of your mindset. Grow up son, grow up.

  • jk105 says:

    Jim144 jk105 Typical lies from Jimmy Old Boy!  The Old and New Testament sanction slavery.  

    So Jimmy Old Boy, was your god right or wrong when he sanctioned slavery in the Old and New Testament?

    Was your god right or wrong when he commanded you to murder disobedient children.

    It sounds to me like Jimmy Old Boy is butchering the Bible, tossing aside the bits he doesn’t like (pro slavery) and using the malicious bits he likes (anti-gay) as a weapon to harm people he hates.

    You worship depravity.

  • Jim144 says:

    You ignorance is astounding, especially your Biblical ignorance. 
    is NOT Gods children. The Bible teaches that ONLY those who have
    repented of their sins and been born again are the children of God. He
    loves everyone yes, but the Bible also says He is angry everyday with
    the sinners.
    He never once sanctioned slavery as you so ignorantly
    profess. The Bible does teach that we should live as peaceably as
    possible in whatever circumstances we are in. If in slavery then do all
    the work as unto God and God will note that in your reward. It also
    teaches that by being obedient to your master you  will bring upon
    yourself better conditions and your good works just might convert your
    If you knew anything about the Bible you would
    know that the Old Testament (where you get the stoning of children from)
    was the penalties for sin before Jesus came and shed His blood. Reading
    and understanding the Old Testament gives us a clearer picture of just
    how much Jesus has accomplished on our behalf. He has stayed Gods hand
    of judgment giving us time and space to repent and get right with him
    instead of being struck down on the spot, though some seem to deserve to
    As for homosexuality, the Old and New Testaments
    have ample reference and admonition against the practice. Only those
    willfully ignoring or not reading can say otherwise. One example:

    Peter 2:5  And spared not the old world, but saved Noah the eighth
    person, a preacher of righteousness, bringing in the flood upon the
    world of the ungodly;
    6  And turning the cities of Sodom and Gomorrha
    into ashes condemned them with an overthrow, making them an ensample
    unto those that after should live ungodly;
    7  And delivered just Lot, vexed with the filthy conversation of the wicked:
     (For that righteous man dwelling among them, in seeing and hearing,
    vexed his righteous soul from day to day with their unlawful deeds;)
     The Lord knoweth how to deliver the godly out of temptations, and to
    reserve the unjust unto the day of judgment to be punished:
    10  But
    chiefly them that walk after the flesh in the lust of uncleanness, and
    despise government. Presumptuous are they, selfwilled, they are not
    afraid to speak evil of dignities.

    someone is not agreeing with them or condoning what they do or say. I
    love you because you are made in the image of God, but I hate what you
    promote and the lies you write about my Savior. 
    My prayer
    is that you get saved and turn from the sin that Satan has convinced
    you is normal and okay. It is not. Salvation is not based on feelings of
    the flesh.

    God judgeth the righteous, and God is angry with the wicked every day.
    Psalms 7:11

  • jk105 says:

    Jim144 SageTex So says Jimmy Old Boy, who worships a god who sanctions slavery and commands Jimbo to murder disobedient children.   You worship depravity.   The Jesus you refer to makes no mention of homosexuality–ever.  But He does demand that you love ALL God’s children–which would include His gay ones.  This Jesus is morally repelled by your bigotry.

  • Jim144 says:

    Yep, it is part of the carnal humanist doctrine that rules the homosexual and others. They go by “what feels right”mixed with a dose of pseudo-science and their own mind blurbs. Walla! They are their own god. A god with no power, no authority, and no future but of suffering the pains of Hell. 
    Jesus made a way of escape but one has to sacrifice the old ways…

  • jk105 says:

    The God who made me gay is Christian. Now you know.

  • SageTex says:

    Gayness is a religion? Who knew!

  • jk105 says:

    Jim144 So Jimmy Old Boyis in favor of religious liberties!!!  Wow! That means you are morally repelled by the heinous monster Kim Davis, who used the brute force of government to deny gay couples their religious liberty and constitutional rights. Welcome to the world of common decency!

  • Jim144 says:

    While I find much to like about both Carson and Trump I’m glad to see some of the others getting some attention. Actually I trust Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee to do more to protect my Constitutional and religious liberties (did I just repeat myself?) than most of the others. 
    I’ve heard too many generalities from Trump so I have moved on from him. Carson I like a lot but not sure he has the fire or the experience I think is needed to handle today’s problems. 
    Right now my vote would be for Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee and I’m still watching Bobby Jindal. I like them all but Cruz does look very promising I agree.

Comments are closed.