❓ WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll has revealed that France’s Marine Le Pen is on track to win the country’s presidential election next year, despite a controversial lawfare campaign aimed at preventing her from running.

📺 DETAIL: Earlier this week, a new survey by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) revealed that Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, is leading in both rounds of next year’s French presidential election. French presidential elections use a two-round system, in which all candidates are permitted to run in the first round, but only the two most popular candidates in the first round advance to the second round. The winner of the second round of voting becomes President. IFOP’s poll showed that Le Pen would beat all her major opponents in the second round of voting, including establishment-backed centrists Gabriel Attal (54 percent vs 46 percent) and Édouard Philippe (55 percent vs 45 percent), and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (70 percent vs 30 percent). In the first round, Le Pen would receive roughly a third of the vote (36 percent). If she faces off against a centrist in the second round, Le Pen is expected to consolidate approximately 50 percent of the right-leaning vote. If she faces off against Mélenchon in the second round, she is expected to consolidate 90 percent of the right-leaning vote. IFOP’s survey follows a ruling by the Court of Appeals in Paris allowing Le Pen to run for the presidency after she was given a three-year sentence for allegedly misusing funds from the European Parliament. The court shortened Le Pen’s ban from running in European elections, allowing her to stand. Two of the three years in Le Pen’s sentence are suspended, with the remaining year being under house arrest with an electronic bracelet. As the ruling allowed Le Pen to appeal further to the Court of Cassation, the highest court in the French judicial system, her innocence is still presumed and will not have to serve any part of her sentence, including wearing a tag on the campaign trail, until her appeal is resolved.

💬 KEY QUOTE: “From now on, I am campaigning to convince the French, to talk to them about their lives, their security, their purchasing power, the rebirth of the country. My opponents would like this campaign to be judicial. I want it to be democratic, and I will not let anyone confiscate this presidential election from the French.” – Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party.

🎯 IMPACT: France’s two-round voting system has typically favored establishment-backed centrist candidates, as left-leaning and right-leaning voters tend to vote for the centrist candidate to block out the further right-leaning or left-leaning candidate who gets through to the second round. If elected, Le Pen would be the first National Rally candidate to win the French presidency. The survey suggests that the lawfare campaign against Le Pen may have backfired, strengthening her anti-establishment credentials.

📺 FLASHBACK: Last week, Le Pen vowed that she would run in the next French presidential election, despite her conviction. The first round is scheduled for April 2027.