❓WHAT HAPPENED: A NASA spacecraft weighing approximately just over half a ton is set to reenter Earth’s atmosphere after nearly 14 years in orbit.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: NASA, U.S. Space Force, and scientists monitoring the Van Allen Probe A.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Reentry is expected around 7:45 PM ET on March 10, 2026, with a 24-hour uncertainty.
💬KEY QUOTE: “The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low—approximately 1 in 4,200.” – NASA.
🎯IMPACT: With most debris likely to land in oceans, the risk to human life is minimal at approximately 0.02 percent.
An over half-ton National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite, the Van Allen Probe A, will make an uncontrolled descent through the Earth’s atmosphere this evening after nearly 14 years in orbit. The probe is expected to undergo reentry at around 7:45 PM ET, though the U.S. space agency cautions this estimate carries a 24-hour margin of uncertainty.
Importantly, NASA stressed that much of the Van Allen Probe A will burn up in the upper atmosphere, meaning the Earth will not be impacted by the entire half-ton satellite. Still, there are components of the probe that are likely to survive reentry and reach the planet’s surface. Notably, as over 70 percent of the Earth is covered by ocean, the likelihood of these surviving pieces striking land is low.
“The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low—approximately 1 in 4,200. NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions,” the agency said in a statement.
Initially launched into orbit on August 30, 2012, from Cape Canaveral, Florida, the Van Allen Probe A was part of a twin satellite mission to study the Van Allen radiation belts. Notably, the radiation belts—named after scientist James Van Allen—are crucial for shielding Earth from cosmic radiation and solar storms. The mission, originally planned to last two years, extended to nearly seven years, producing significant scientific discoveries before the probes exhausted their fuel in 2019.
NASA had initially calculated that the satellite would not return to Earth until 2034. However, an unexpectedly active solar cycle accelerated its descent. The sun’s solar maximum phase, confirmed in 2024, heightened space weather activity, expanding Earth’s upper atmosphere and increasing drag on orbiting objects. Meanwhile, the twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, remains in orbit and is not expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere until at least 2030.
Despite an estimated 5,400 tons of space debris impacting the Earth over the last 40 years, only one person has ever been struck, Lottie Williams of Tulsa, Oklahoma, in 1997. She was unharmed.
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