PULSE POINTS
❓WHAT HAPPENED: A near record number of Republican lawmakers in the modern political era are retiring from Congress ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. As of the end of March, seven Republicans have announced they will not seek reelection to the U.S. Senate, while a whopping 37 Republicans are forgoing reelection to the House of Representatives.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: House Republicans, House Democrats, Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats, President Donald J. Trump, and American voters.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The 2026 midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
🎯IMPACT: While some retirements are explainable by advanced age and health issues, as in the case of Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), they are, on the whole, a foreboding signal that the GOP anticipates losing control of at least one chamber of Congress, and perhaps both.
A near-record number of Republican lawmakers in the modern political era are retiring from Congress ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, an exclusive analysis from The National Pulse can reveal.
As of the end of March, seven Republicans have announced they will not seek reelection to the U.S. Senate, while 37 Republicans are forgoing reelection to the House of Representatives. While some retirements are explainable by advanced age and health, as in the case of Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), they are, on the whole, a foreboding signal that the GOP anticipates losing control of at least one chamber of Congress and perhaps both.
Earlier this month, Representative Darrell Issa (R-CA) became the 36th Republican in the House to announce he will not seek reelection. The 72-year-old Issa is an example of a trend particular to House Republicans, in which senior lawmakers retire ahead of what they believe will be a bad election cycle that will prevent them from being elevated to a committee chairmanship.
Similar to Issa, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO)—a 25-year incumbent and chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee—announced late last week that he will not seek reelection, marking the 37th retirement. Graves, who is 62, is another example of a senior Republican House member whose decision to exit Congress likely revolves around the politics of committee chairmanships. Meanwhile, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) was forced into retirement after losing his primary race on March 3.
EXPECTING TO LOSE, AND FAILING TO REDISTRICT.
House Republicans have traditionally imposed term limits on their committee chairs, which forces senior lawmakers to rotate through various committees. When they believe the party will be out of the majority for at least one election cycle, these senior members will often opt for retirement since it could be a number of years before the GOP returns to the majority and they are rotated back in as a committee chairman.
The high number of House retirements—which appears to be the most in a single cycle since 1930—is at least in part explained by the committee chairmanship dynamic. However, it also likely reflects the anticipation of further Republican losses due to the failure of several states to shore up the narrow majority through mid-decade redistricting. Efforts to draw new district lines in states like Indiana failed to be adopted despite a concerted push by President Donald J. Trump, with Texas being the most successful redistricting plan, increasing Republican House margins by a significant number. Other GOP redistricting plans adopted in North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio could add one Republican seat each, while Utah’s attempt to draw a more favorable Republican congressional map has languished amid court challenges.
The last time the GOP saw a similar number of retirements was during the 2018 midterm election cycle, when 34 House members retired. Subsequently, Democrats took the House majority, picking up 41 seats. Democrat redistricting efforts in California alone will likely net the Democrats five seats in that state.
TROUBLE IN THE SENATE?
The Senate retirements should also be of concern.
Currently, seven Republican lawmakers in the upper chamber have announced they will not seek reelection. Critically for the GOP, the only seat expected to be hotly contested is in North Carolina, which is being vacated by anti-Trump Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). The open seat will see former RNC co-chairman Michael Whatley face off against former Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC). Iowa will also have an open Senate race with the retirement of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).
The other Senate retirements include Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)—the former Republican Senate leader and outspoken critic of President Trump—who is 84 years old and has suffered a significant decline in his physical and cognitive health in recent years. Joining McConnell in not seeking reelection is Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), who is 71 years old. Lumis’s retirement decision appears mostly influenced by her legislative efforts in support of cryptocurrency, with political speculation suggesting she intends to cash in on that influence as a lobbyist for the industry.
While the technical number of retirements is seven, Sen. Alan Armstrong (R-OK)—who was appointed earlier this week to fill the seat held by now-Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin—is barred under Oklahoma law from running in November’s election due to his appointment. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), who announced he will run for the seat, has already received backing from President Trump and is expected to easily win the race.
Another departure is Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), though the former Auburn University football coach is instead running for Governor of Alabama and not exiting politics. Similarly, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) is running for governor of her state.
However, the most surprising has been Sen. Steve Daines’s (R-MT) retirement announcement. At 63, Daines is just under the median age for a Republican senator, which currently sits at 64.5. Notably, Daines led the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) efforts during the 2024 election cycle, which saw Republicans capture the Senate majority and pick up critical seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Montana—with razor-thin losses in Wisconsin and Michigan.
VOTER DATA IS BLEAK.
Polling data continues to show voters believe the Trump administration is too focused on foreign policy and not doing enough to address domestic matters. The economy is of particular concern, along with renewed inflation fears—though the latter is primarily driven by pressure on housing and energy affordability.
While several recent surveys have shown Republican candidates remaining competitive with Democrats on the generic Congressional ballot, record-low approval ratings for President Trump could have a downward drag, swinging close races toward Democrat candidates. This has become especially evident in a slew of off-year and special elections, in which the Democrat Party has largely won, with its candidates overperforming and Republicans underperforming prior election cycle results.
Image by Ted Eytan.
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