❓WHAT HAPPENED: New Department of Labor (DOL) data indicates that inflation has largely subsided, with the rate having largely stabilized at 2.4 percent for the moment.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), President Donald J. Trump, analysts, and energy market experts.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Data covers February 2026 and was released on Wednesday, March 11, 2026.
🎯IMPACT: While the threat of inflation has largely subsided for now, ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran have caused significant volatility in energy markets, which could temporarily push some prices higher for a short period.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation remained steady at 2.4 percent in February, with monthly inflation ticking up to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, stayed at 2.5 percent year-over-year, while the monthly rate decreased to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent. The BLS data suggests that—for now—the threat of inflationary pressure in the economy has largely subsided.
Housing costs were a significant driver of February’s price increases, rising by 0.2 percent. The food index climbed 0.4 percent, and the energy index saw a 0.6 percent increase, with gasoline prices rising 0.8 percent over the month. These figures align with January’s data, which analysts viewed as a sign of stability in the U.S. economy under the Trump administration.
However, the BLS data does not reflect the impact of current hostilities in the Middle East. Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury—with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran—on February 28, Brent crude oil prices surged, reaching nearly $120 a barrel, then plunging to $80, before settling at around $90. This volatility has been largely driven by the disruption of oil tanker traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with insurers refusing to underwrite the ships in the face of sporadic Iranian drone and missile attacks.
Retail gasoline prices have already risen sharply in March, now averaging $3.60 per gallon, the highest since at least 2024. Still, any inflationary pressure stemming from current energy price volatility is largely supply-driven and is expected to quickly subside once combat operations wind down.
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