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Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Tag: 2024 Election
October 4, 2024
Data
Election 2024

Harris is Running Significantly Behind Joe Biden’s 2020 Margins Over Trump.

Polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign for the White House is faltering with just over a month before the November presidential election. A survey conducted between September 29 and October 1 by Emerson College Polling indicates the Democratic Party presidential nominee is falling well shy of President Joe Biden’s margins in the 2020 election.

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris sits at 50 percent to President Donald J. Trump’s 48 percent. With a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the Emerson poll essentially confirms Trump and Harris are in a dead heat. Biden’s margin over Trump in the 2020 popular vote was four and a half points.

Polling data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight illustrates an even steeper decline in Harris’ advantage compared to Biden’s, placing her current lead at approximately 2.8 percentage points, in contrast to Biden’s 7.4-point lead at this juncture in 2020. RealClearPolitics’ aggregation indicates an even greater difference between Biden’s and Harris’s leads over Trump, with Biden holding a 7.8-point lead in the Fall of 2020 versus Harris’s 2.2 points now.

In the battleground states where election outcomes are often decided the races appear exceptionally close. For instance, North Carolina and Pennsylvania show statistical ties, while Trump holds a minor edge in Arizona and Georgia. Conversely, Harris shows a slight advantage in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

As in the 2016 election, Trump holds a significant advantage among non-college-educated and white working-class voters. Recent data released by the Teamsters Union shows the former Republican president holding about 60 percent support among the union’s rank-and-file members.

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Polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign for the White House is faltering with just over a month before the November presidential election. A survey conducted between September 29 and October 1 by Emerson College Polling indicates the Democratic Party presidential nominee is falling well shy of President Joe Biden's margins in the 2020 election. show more
October 4, 2024
Data
Election 2024

DATA: RFK Jr’s Trump Endorsement Outshines Taylor Swift’s Harris Support.

Psephologist Nate Silver believes Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to back former President Donald J. Trump is the most significant public endorsement of the 2024 election. According to Silver, Kennedy’s endorsement has fueled a significant shift in voter support for Trump, possibly costing his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris around half a percentage point nationally.

Conversely, Silver notes that popstar Taylor Swift’s decision to back Harris has not had a similar effect. He says he’s observed no substantial change in polling for Harris since Swift posted her endorsement of the Democratic Party nominee on Instagram immediately following the September 10 presidential debate. The statistician and election modeler—speaking on his Risky Business podcast—claims Swift’s 2020 endorsement of Joe Biden made her decision to support Harris predictable for voters, meaning those likely to be swayed were already backing the Democratic Party nominee.

While most national polling shows the election between Trump and Harris in a dead heat, the Democrats are fretting that they may face a similar electoral environment as they did in 2016, when most pollsters missed Trump’s victory. Among the concerns for Harris is her lagging support among young voters—a demographic that many thought Swift’s endorsement would help boost. However, a recent survey found that Harris currently has just over half as much support among young people as Biden during the 2020 election.

Meanwhile, data released by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio shows Kennedy voters breaking for Trump by a two-to-one margin over Harris in seven critical battleground states. With several states only being decided by just tens-of-thousand of voters in 2020, Kennedy voters could be pivotal to a Trump victory.

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Psephologist Nate Silver believes Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s decision to back former President Donald J. Trump is the most significant public endorsement of the 2024 election. According to Silver, Kennedy's endorsement has fueled a significant shift in voter support for Trump, possibly costing his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris around half a percentage point nationally. show more
October 4, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
War

John Bolton Just Proved How Unserious He Is, Again.

Neoconservative foreign policy advisor John Bolton is now backing down from his publicly stated intention to write in former Vice President Dick Cheney on his 2024 presidential election ballot, citing the Iraq War architect‘s endorsement of Kamala Harris. Instead, Bolton—himself a backer of the disastrous Iraq invasion under then-President George W. Bush—is suggesting he may write in Ronald Reagan, who died in 2004.

“It’s caused me to reassess whether to vote for Dick,” Bolton told CNN’s Kasie Hunt. He continued: “I’m looking to vote for a conservative Republican, and I certainly think Dick is a conservative Republican. And if he were to win—not much chance of that, I suppose—I don’t think he’d put Kamala Harris in his cabinet.”

“I had originally thought in 2020 I’d write in Ronald Reagan to make the point even more effectively, and maybe that’s what I’ll do this time,” Bolton added.

The National Pulse reported in April that Bolton had written in Dick Cheney for President of the United States in 2020 and intended to do so again in the 2024 election. However, it appears Cheney’s backing of Harris is a bridge too far for the neoconservative war hawk, who served just over a year as National Security Advisor to President Donald J. Trump before being fired for publicly undermining the Republican president’s agenda.

Botlon’s career is checkered with bizarre claims and statements that have undermined his credibility in the eyes of many Americans. During the George W. Bush administration, Bolton—then an official with the State Department—was one of the originators of the lie that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The claim was used as a pretext for the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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Neoconservative foreign policy advisor John Bolton is now backing down from his publicly stated intention to write in former Vice President Dick Cheney on his 2024 presidential election ballot, citing the Iraq War architect's endorsement of Kamala Harris. Instead, Bolton—himself a backer of the disastrous Iraq invasion under then-President George W. Bush—is suggesting he may write in Ronald Reagan, who died in 2004. show more
October 3, 2024
William Upton
2A
Election 2024

‘Gun Owners for Harris’ Group Has Just 8 Members Per State.

A gun owners coalition supporting Vice President Kamala Harris‘s presidential campaign has only eight members on average in each state it is active in. GIFFORDS Gun Owners for Harris-Walz, organized by a pro-gun control PAC founded by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), reports having just 400 active members across 45 total U.S. states as of its launch on Thursday.

The Democrat gun owners group aims to organize pro-gun voters in support of Harris and Walz, a demographic with which Democrats have almost universally struggled to win over for decades. Additionally, GIFFORDS Gun Owners for Harris-Walz says it will provide cover for the Democratic presidential ticket from Republican attacks highlighting Harris and Walz’s past anti-Second Amendment stances.

Giffords is one of the Democratic Party’s most visible advocates for gun control. Notably, she was featured on the main stage of the 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) alongside her husband, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ). In 2020, she also appeared on the party convention’s main stage, backing Joe Biden and pushing for stringent gun control laws.

GUN OWNERS FOR GUN CONTROL?

The former Arizona Congressman, once seen as moderate on gun policy, founded the pro-gun control GIFFORDS PAC after being shot in the head in an assassination attempt in 2011. Giffords suffered a severe brain injury as a result of the shooting but has since regained much of her ability to speak and walk.

Kamala Harris claims she owns a handgun, a point which she emphasized during the September presidential debate with former President Donald J. Trump. Despite the claim, the Harris campaign has been evasive when pressed for more details about the firearm.

Meanwhile, Harris’s running mate, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), suffered an embarrassing gaffe during his debate square-off with Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) earlier this week while defending his anti-Second Amendment record. While attempting to use school shootings as a shield, Walz stated that he had “befriended school shooters.”

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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A gun owners coalition supporting Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign has only eight members on average in each state it is active in. GIFFORDS Gun Owners for Harris-Walz, organized by a pro-gun control PAC founded by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), reports having just 400 active members across 45 total U.S. states as of its launch on Thursday. show more
October 3, 2024
William Upton
Economy
Election 2024

Govt Dependence is Skyrocketing in U.S. Swing States.

American dependence on government assistance has skyrocketed in recent years, especially in critical 2024 battleground states. According to new data from the Economic Innovation Group, government assistance is now crucial for residents in 70 percent of counties in Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, 60 percent of counties are reliant on government spending programs.

Reliance on government aid has increased exponentially over the past two decades, with 53 percent of counties nationwide now drawing a bulk of their income from government spending. Just 10 percent of counties were reliant on government spending in the year 2000.

Social safety net programs like Social Security, SNAP, Medicare, and Medicaid account for most of the assistance, with the increased reliance driven—in part—by the aging U.S. population. As more members of the Baby Boomer generation retire from the workforce, these programs will continue to see their budgets balloon.

Additionally, the concentration of high-salaried workers in major U.S. cities is compounding the problem. Almost all of the counties reliant on government aid are rural or recently de-industrialized through outsourcing. This has resulted in American wealth becoming concentrated in just a few major cities.

Runaway healthcare costs are also a contributing factor. According to the Economic Innovation Group report, medical costs “have risen nearly twice as quickly as overall inflation over the past several decades.”

The overreliance on government assistance programs among critical election demographics in battleground states could make tackling the country’s ballooning deficit a politically fraught decision for either major U.S. political party. “Significantly raising taxes and dramatically cutting… programs could choke off the very economic activity that finances [them] and immiserate the lives of people who depend on them,” the report notes.

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American dependence on government assistance has skyrocketed in recent years, especially in critical 2024 battleground states. According to new data from the Economic Innovation Group, government assistance is now crucial for residents in 70 percent of counties in Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, 60 percent of counties are reliant on government spending programs. show more
October 3, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

Chicks Dig JD Vance After Debate Performance.

President Donald J. Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), saw a significant improvement in his standing with female voters after his vice presidential debate with Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) earlier this week. The data indicates that Vance far outperformed expectations, while Walz—the Democratic Party’s vice presidential nominee—underperformed.

Prior to Tuesday’s debate, 56 percent of female respondents to a CNN survey were more inclined to believe Walz would do better than Vance. Meanwhile, 44 percent said they believed Vance would best Kamala Harris’s vice presidential nominee.

However, a second CNN poll, taken immediately after the vice presidential debate, shows Vance overtaking Walz, with 51 percent of women saying the Ohio Republican performed better. Conversely, 49 percent said Walz did a better job. The data also shows Vance’s approval ratings among female voters increasing after his debate performance, with a 12-point shift in his favor.

Vance’s overall favorability ratings also appear to be improving, with the Republican vice presidential nominee seeing significant increases in popularity across voter demographics. The Ohio Senator’s favorable ratings jumped 10 points among men and eight points among minorities. Additionally, he saw improvement among voters over the age of 45, moving from a 35 percent favorable rating pre-debate to 47 percent post-debate.

The National Pulse previously reported that international media outlets were nearly unanimous in declaring Vance the winner of the debate. Publications in the United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada noted Vance came across as “polished” and “genteel.”

Meanwhile, the foreign press panned Walz‘s performance, stating the Minnesota Democrat appeared “visibly nervous,” “distinctly uncomfortable,” and “confused.”

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President Donald J. Trump's running mate, Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), saw a significant improvement in his standing with female voters after his vice presidential debate with Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) earlier this week. The data indicates that Vance far outperformed expectations, while Walz—the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee—underperformed. show more
October 2, 2024
Election 2024

Doug Emhoff Allegedly Slapped NYC Girlfriend at 2012 Gala.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, is being accused of physically assaulting his former girlfriend in 2012 during an event at the Cannes Film Festival in France. The Second Gentleman allegedly slapped his then-girlfriend after confronting her for apparently flirting with a valet worker. Three unnamed friends of the woman are raising the assault accusations.

Emhoff, an entertainment lawyer, reportedly struck his then-girlfriend, a New York attorney, so forcefully that she spun around. The woman contacted one of her friends immediately after the incident, sobbing as she recounted that Emhoff had hit her. Another friend, also a New York-based attorney, corroborated the story, adding that the woman had been completely caught off guard by the sudden attack. A third friend, currently a corporate executive, recounted being told about the incident in 2018.

The relationship between Emhoff and the woman began on Match.com in early 2012 and had become serious within three months. In the Spring of 2012, they traveled to the Cannes Film Festival, where Hollywood sex offenders Harvey Weinstein and Roman Polanski were also in attendance. The trip was cut short after the alleged assault. Emhoff is said to have returned to Los Angeles for his daughter’s birthday, breaking off the relationship with his then-girlfriend.

BIDEN CAMPAIGN KNEW.

In August, Emhoff admitted to CNN that he had cheated on his first wife, a situation that reportedly involved a nanny who became pregnant but did not keep the baby. Emhoff’s history, including these latest allegations, was reportedly disclosed during the vetting process before Harris was selected as the Democratic Party vice presidential nominee by Joe Biden before the 2020 election.

Investigative reporter Laura Loomer has unearthed video of individuals walking the red carpet at the 2012 Cannes Film Festival, with a man—who is clearly Emhoff—appearing alongside a woman in a red dress. The video appears to corroborate that the two were at Cannes in 2012.

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Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, is being accused of physically assaulting his former girlfriend in 2012 during an event at the Cannes Film Festival in France. The Second Gentleman allegedly slapped his then-girlfriend after confronting her for apparently flirting with a valet worker. Three unnamed friends of the woman are raising the assault accusations. show more
October 1, 2024
Election 2024

DATA: Trump Gains Working Class Voters as Kamala Sees Union Support Collapse.

President Donald J. Trump is building strong support among working-class and union voters, potentially outperforming any Republican nominee in recent memory. According to CNN data guru Harry Enten, recent polling suggests the former president is making significant gains among union families, trade school graduates, and minority voters without college degrees.

Current data suggests that Kamala Harris only leads among union households by nine points, a stark decline from Bill Clinton’s margin in 1992, which sat at 30 points. Concerningly for Harris, her predecessor—81-year-old Joe Biden—won union households by 19 points over Trump in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris—the current Democratic Party presidential nominee—is far closer to Hillary Clinton‘s 12-point margin in 2016.

Despite left-wing political dominance among working-class voters for several decades, Trump has broken through and made considerable headway in traditional Democratic Party strongholds.

“More so perhaps than any other bloc, the folks who go to trade school, vocational school, that has moved from being a core Democratic group to now being a core group of Donald Trump’s massive amount of support among the working class,” Enten says.

Among trade school graduates, Trump is ahead of Harris by 31 points. This marks a significant shift from 1992, when Bill Clinton won this group by seven points, representing a 38-point swing towards the Republican Party over the past three decades.

Enten also noted Trump’s gains among working-class minority voters. Harris leads this group by 28 points, down from the 45-point margin of the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020. Trump’s surge in support is primarily among racial and ethnic minorities without college degrees, reflecting a broader trend of increased GOP appeal to working-class voters.

WATCH:

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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President Donald J. Trump is building strong support among working-class and union voters, potentially outperforming any Republican nominee in recent memory. According to CNN data guru Harry Enten, recent polling suggests the former president is making significant gains among union families, trade school graduates, and minority voters without college degrees. show more
October 1, 2024
Election 2024
Election Integrity

Abortion Ballot Measure Would Also Establish Noncitizen Voting Rights.

A broadly worded New York state ballot measure could enshrine voting rights in the state constitution for noncitizens even though it is ostensibly aimed at protecting abortions. Proposition 1, known as the Equal Rights Amendment, would guarantee the right to abortion in the state constitution. However, there is mounting concern the measure’s broad anti-discrimination provision could lead to significant unintended consequences.

The proposed amendment states, “No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws of this state,” and lists protections regardless of “race, color, ethnicity, national origin, age, disability, creed [or], religion, or sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.” According to critics, the inclusion of “national origin” could extend protections and potentially voting rights to noncitizens, including illegal immigrants.

Westchester County-based constitutional lawyer Bobbi Anne Cox, who is spearheading a campaign opposed to Proposition 1, argues the anti-discrimination amendment is so broadly worded that it equates noncitizens with citizens in terms of legal protections.

“It covers anybody. That includes people who came here illegally and broke our laws,” she emphasized, suggesting it is a “Trojan horse of epic proportions.”

Additionally, Cox notes the measure could result in taxpayers having to cover even more services for illegal immigrants than they already are—further ballooning state and local budgets.

Republican pollster John McLaughlin agrees with Cox, suggesting that voter support for Prop 1 decreases when they learn of its broader implications, said to include allowing transgenders to compete in women’s sports and share female locker rooms. He described the ballot measure as a “radical wish list.”

Image by rchristie/Ryan.

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A broadly worded New York state ballot measure could enshrine voting rights in the state constitution for noncitizens even though it is ostensibly aimed at protecting abortions. Proposition 1, known as the Equal Rights Amendment, would guarantee the right to abortion in the state constitution. However, there is mounting concern the measure's broad anti-discrimination provision could lead to significant unintended consequences. show more
October 1, 2024
William Upton
Economy
Election 2024

The Teamsters Are Backing the Dockworkers’ Strike.

The Teamsters Union has announced it is backing the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at 36 ports across the eastern seaboard of the United States. In a statement issued just hours before the strike began, the Teamsters indicated they would not cross picket lines. This means the logistics union won’t haul freight from ports where the dockworkers are on strike.

“The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, including our members in the freight industry, stand in full solidarity with the International Longshoremen’s Association as they fight for a fair and just contract with the ocean carriers represented by USMX,” Teamsters president Sean O’Brien said in a statement late yesterday. Taking issue with what he characterized as meddling by the Biden-Harris government, O’Brien continued: “The U.S. government should stay the f**k out of this fight and allow union workers to withhold their labor for the wages and benefits they have earned.”

“Don’t forget—Teamsters do not cross picket lines. The Teamsters Union is 100 percent committed to standing with our Longshoremen brothers and sisters until they win the contract they deserve,” the Teamsters leader added.

The Biden-Harris government’s Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has met several times with the port operators—namely USMX—in the lead-up to the strike. Many in organized labor remain skeptical of Buttigieg, a former McKinsey & Company management consultant. The Longshoremen union’s hesitancy in dealing with the Biden-Harris cabinet secretary due to his corporate consulting ties has further complicated talks.

Earlier this month, the Teamsters announced they will not endorse a presidential candidate in the 2024 election—the first time in nearly 30 years. The union’s internal polling, however, shows rank-and-file members overwhelming support President Donald J. Trump against Kamala Harris.

Image by Matt Michalski.

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The Teamsters Union has announced it is backing the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at 36 ports across the eastern seaboard of the United States. In a statement issued just hours before the strike began, the Teamsters indicated they would not cross picket lines. This means the logistics union won't haul freight from ports where the dockworkers are on strike. show more