History professor Allan Lichtman, best known for his 13 keys, a set of precepts used to predict nine out of the past ten U.S. elections, is forecasting a victory for Kamala Harris in November’s election. Lichtman, characterized as the “Nostradamus” of American politics, has effectively used his election-predicting model since 1981—including calling former President Donald J. Trump‘s victory in 2016.
According to Lichtman’s system—which is essentially a set of somewhat subjective ‘true or false’ questions regarding economic and political conditions before an election—Kamala Harris currently holds eight keys. This, the 77-year-old academic says, means the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee will win the White House.
The 13 keys system evaluates candidates based on various factors, including party gains in the prior midterm election, the incumbency factor, whether the nominees faced a primary contest, if there is a strong third party candidate present, the state of the short-term and long-term economy, and if there have been major national policy changes. Additional keys include whether there is recent social unrest, a major White House scandal, the charisma of the incumbent and challenger, and a major foreign policy failure or success.
CRITICISM OF THE KEYS.
Lichtman contends if five or fewer of the keys fall to “false,” the incumbent party retains the White House. However, his predictive system isn’t without its critics. Statistician and election modeler Nate Silver has frequently denounced the 13 keys, calling the system “p-hacked BS.” In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Silver challenged the history professor to a $250,000 bet over who could more accurately predict the 2024 election results.
While Lichtman insists Harris holds the short-term and long-term economic keys, recent data suggest a concerning weakening in the U.S. labor market. Additionally, major American stock indexes have seen significant losses over the past week as the Federal Reserve is likely set to cut interest rates in the hopes of reducing increasing economic volatility and a potential recession.
