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Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Tag: trade
May 27, 2025
Economy
News

Trump Tariffs Revenues Soar AGAIN, Creating More Wealth for America.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: U.S. government tariff receipts for May have already surpassed $22.3 billion.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, U.S. Treasury Department.

📍 Where & When: United States, May 2023.

💬 Key Quote: “We’re going to make a lot of money [from tariffs] and that money’s going to be used to reduce taxes,” Trump said on April 23.

⚠️ Impact: Tariff revenues have surged, now representing around four percent of federal revenue overall.

IN FULL:

Tariff revenues collected by the U.S. government in May have already exceeded $22.3 billion, according to data from the Treasury Department. A significant deposit of over $16.5 billion was recorded on May 22 alone.

This spike in receipts, categorized under “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes,” has been driven by President Donald J. Trump’s trade policies, aimed at encouraging the reshoring of American manufacturing from foreign countries.

The total for May has already surpassed the $17.4 billion collected in April and the $9.6 billion in March. Since January 1, more than $92 billion has flowed into government coffers.

The surge follows the implementation of a 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports starting April 5, marking the first full month these duties were in effect. Additional tariffs on products such as steel and aluminum are in place for most countries, and some countries also face tariffs particular to them, with China paying a 20 percent tariff for its role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis, for instance.

May did see tariff reductions on many imports from China and the United Kingdom. However, despite these concessions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of further tariffs, warning on social media, “I am empowered to ‘SET A DEAL’ for Trade into the United States if we are unable to make a deal.”

The America First leader has also indicated plans for new tariffs targeting specific sectors that make important products abroad, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and potentially companies like Apple and Samsung. These tariffs are part of broader efforts to reshape U.S. manufacturing and generate revenue.

Historically, tariff revenues have accounted for approximately two percent of federal revenue, with the recent surge roughly doubling that figure to around four percent.

“We’re going to make a lot of money [from tariffs] and that money’s going to be used to reduce taxes,” Trump stated on April 23.

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May 27, 2025
Economy
News

Trump Postpones 50% EU Tariff to July.

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❓What Happened: President Donald J. Trump announced a delay in implementing a 50 percent tariff on European Union (EU) goods from June 1 to July 9 to allow time for trade negotiations.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Trump, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and market analysts.

📍 Where & When: The announcement followed a Sunday phone call between Trump and von der Leyen, with Trump speaking to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey.

💬 Key Quote: “I agreed to the extension—July 9, 2025—It was my privilege to do so,” President Trump stated on Truth Social.

⚠️ Impact: The tariff threats caused market instability, with analysts warning of potential harm to global economic growth and market confidence.

IN FULL:

President Donald J. Trump announced on Sunday that the United States will postpone imposing a 50 percent tariff on goods from the European Union (EU), originally set to take effect on June 1, until July 9. Trump told reporters in Morristown, New Jersey, that the decision was made after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, during which she expressed a desire to engage in “serious negotiations. ”

“I told anybody that, they have to do that,” Trump said, referring to the need for negotiations. He added that von der Leyen committed to “rapidly get together and see if we can work something out.” The America First leader later took to Truth Social, stating, “I agreed to the extension—July 9, 2025—It was my privilege to do so.”

The delay follows a social media post by Trump on Friday in which he criticized the EU for being “very difficult to deal with” on trade and claimed negotiations were “going nowhere.” The announcement of the EU tariffs came alongside a potential 25 percent tariff on iPhones produced abroad.

Von der Leyen, for her part, emphasized the importance of the U.S.-EU trade relationship, calling it “the world’s most consequential and close.” She stated that Europe is “ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively” and highlighted the necessity of using the time until July 9 to reach a beneficial agreement.

Britain, which unlike EU member states manages its own trade policy, thanks to Brexit, has already secured a trade deal with the U.S.

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May 20, 2025
Economy

Major U.S. Chain Blames Fed for Slower Sales, Not Tariffs.

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❓What Happened: Home Depot reiterated its full-year sales forecast and announced it would not raise prices in response to tariffs.

👥 Who’s Involved: Home Depot, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail, U.S. consumers, suppliers.

📍 Where & When: United States, fiscal first quarter ending May 4.

💬 Key Quote: “We intend to generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio,” said CFO Richard McPhail.

⚠️ Impact: Home Depot’s pricing strategy contrasts with competitors like Walmart, and the company reported muted sales growth amid a tough housing environment.

IN FULL:

Home Depot announced on Tuesday that it will maintain its current pricing strategy despite claims that President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs could result in higher retail costs for consumers, citing strong supplier relationships and operational efficiency. Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Richard McPhail said that the company’s scale and partnerships would allow it to avoid price hikes.

“Because of our scale, the great partnerships we have with our suppliers and productivity that we continue to drive in our business, we intend to generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio,” McPhail said during an interview with CNBC on Tuesday morning.

The Home Depot CFO noted earlier on Tuesday, during a company earnings call, that the tariffs provided an opportunity for the massive hardware and supply retailer to expand its market share against competitors. “It’s a great opportunity for us to take share, and it’s a great opportunity for our suppliers to take share as well,” he said.

McPhail highlighted that over half of Home Depot’s products are sourced domestically. Additionally, the company has diversified its import sources, reducing reliance on China. By next year, no single country outside the U.S. will account for more than 10 percent of its purchases, according to McPhail.

The announcement coincided with the release of Home Depot’s fiscal first-quarter results. The company missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the first time since May 2020 but exceeded sales forecasts. Net income for the quarter, ending May 4, stood at $3.43 billion, or $3.45 per share, down from $3.60 billion, or $3.63 per share, a year earlier. Total sales grew 2.8 percent year over year, bolstered by the acquisition of SRS Distribution, a supplier for home professionals.

Home Depot CEO Ted Decker, on the same earnings call, contended that the slower sales were because of “stubbornly high” interest rates, laying the blame at the feet of the Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve—though he did not name the central bank directly.

Comparable sales fell 0.3 percent during the quarter, with U.S. comparable sales increasing slightly by 0.2 percent. McPhail attributed February’s decline to poor weather but noted that sales improved in March and April, with the latter seeing a 1.8 percent year-over-year increase. The company also reported a 2.1 percent rise in customer transactions, with an average ticket of $90.71.

Notably, McPhail’s comments add further evidence to the argument that many companies will attempt to maintain current price levels or mitigate increases as much as possible to maintain their market share. This appears to be especially true for suppliers and U.S. retailers who are considering shifting or even eliminating product sourcing in China.

Image by Harrison Keely.

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May 19, 2025
Economy
UK

Guinness Owners Revise DOWN the Expected Impact of Trump’s Tariffs.

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❓What Happened: Diageo, owner of Guinness and Johnnie Walker, is reducing the projected annual loss it attributed to President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies by $50 million.

👥 Who’s Involved: Diageo, U.S. President Donald J. Trump, Diageo CEO Debra Crew, and equity analyst Aarin Chiekrie.

📍 Where & When: Tariffs announced April 2, 2025; Diageo issued its update on Monday.

💬 Key Quote: “Looking ahead, we will continue to work on measures to mitigate this impact further,” Diageo stated, expressing confidence in navigating international tariffs.

⚠️ Impact: The company forecasts reduced profits but plans to mitigate losses and save $500 million by 2028.

IN FULL:

The British beverage giant Diageo, owner of Guinness and Johnnie Walker, has flagged a $150 million annual hit to its profits, claiming this will be due to U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald J. Trump. However, the company’s newest estimate, released on Monday, is a significant decrease from the expected $200 million loss it projected earlier this year.

It is unclear whether Diageo’s estimate includes provisions laid out in the new landmark bilateral trade agreement signed earlier this month between the United States and the United Kingdom, or if the loss is based mainly on the revenue impact of the 10 percent global tariff imposed by President Trump on April 2, 2025. Notably, President Trump paused higher, country-specific reciprocal tariffs for 90 days in mid-April. However, the recent U.S.-UK trade deal would preclude additional trade duties from being imposed on British exports once the pause expires.

Diageo’s recent shareholder update noted that its tequila and Canadian whiskey brands remain exempt from these levies, and tariffs on U.S.-China trade have had minimal impact on its operations. The company stated that it expects to mitigate about half of the tariff-related losses and expressed confidence in its ability to manage the challenges posed by international trade policies.

“Looking ahead, we will continue to work on measures to mitigate this impact further,” the company said, adding that its long history of navigating tariffs provided reassurance. The expected financial impact is already factored into Diageo’s fiscal guidance for 2025 and 2026. Importantly, the British company says it believes it can achieve around $500 million in savings by 2028, suggesting the long-term impact of the Trump administration tariffs will leave its business and market relatively unaffected.

CEO Debra Crew emphasized the company’s resilience: “We continue to believe in the attractive long-term fundamentals of our industry and in our ability to outperform the market. We view the near-term industry pressure as largely macroeconomic driven, with continued uncertainty impacting both the timing and pace of recovery.”

Diageo also reported a 2.9 percent rise in net sales for the first quarter of the year, reaching $4.4 billion.

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May 18, 2025
News

Yes, Europe Also Uses Non-Tariff Trade Barriers to Edge Out U.S. Firms in Digital Sector.

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❓What Happened: The tax policy advocacy group, Americans for Tax Reform, is sounding the alarm that the European Union (EU) is continuing to use non-tariff trade barriers to disadvantage U.S. technology companies in the European market.

👥 Who’s Involved: Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform; the European Union (EU); U.S. tech companies; and China.

📍 Where & When: Americans for Tax Reform’s president, Grover Norquist, laid out the concerns with EU regulatory burdens in a recent opinion editorial.

💬 Key Quote: “This is not regulation; it’s non-tariff protectionism disguised as principle,” Norquist said.

⚠️ Impact: Norquist warned that the EU’s actions could push American firms out of the European digital economy and risk ceding dominance to China.

IN FULL:

Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform, has sounded the alarm over European Union (EU) policies that he claims unfairly target American technology firms. Writing in an opinion editorial this week, Norquist criticized the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) as measures designed to penalize U.S. companies through excessive regulations and censorship demands.

Norquist argues that these policies are not genuine regulatory measures but rather “non-tariff protectionism disguised as principle.” He accused the EU of benefiting from U.S.-developed platforms and technologies, such as cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI), while imposing fines and taxes that ultimately fund the European welfare state “at the expense of America.”

Recent years have seen growing tensions between U.S. tech firms and European regulators. For example, X (formerly Twitter), the platform owned by Elon Musk, faced scrutiny after signing an EU code of conduct aimed at combating “illegal hate speech online.” Musk’s somewhat more permissive approach to free speech has clashed with European laws, drawing criticism from EU leaders.

Norquist further emphasized that 80 percent of Europe’s digital technologies are imported, primarily from the United States. He cautioned that the EU’s approach could undermine collaboration with American innovators and pave the way for China to dominate the digital economy.

“Europe’s leaders must recognize their role in escalating trade tensions and commit to a unified front,” Norquist urged. “Let us innovate together, compete together, and halt China’s march toward economic and technological dominance.”

This reflects similar criticisms by President Donald J. Trump, who has hammered the EU for its tariffs on U.S. goods and its use of regulations, security measures, and value-added tax (VAT) to undermine the competitiveness of U.S. exports.

Image: European Union 2017 – European Parliament.

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May 16, 2025
William Upton
Economy
World

Trump Promises Fair Tariff Adjustments for Trade Partners in Coming Weeks.

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❓What Happened: President Donald J. Trump announced that his administration will inform U.S. trade partners as to what tariff rates their exports will face in the next several weeks.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and leaders from the Middle East, the United Kingdom, China, and elsewhere.

📍 Where & When: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; May 16, 2025.

💬 Key Quote: “We have 150 countries that want to make a deal—but you’re not able to see that many countries. So at a certain point over the next two to three weeks, I think Scott and Howard will be sending letters out essentially telling people—and we’ll be very fair—but we’ll be telling people what they’ll be paying to do business in the United States,” Trump said.

⚠️ Impact: The administration plans to dictate trade terms to numerous countries in the coming weeks, impacting global trade dynamics and continuing its ‘America First’ agenda.

IN FULL:

President Donald J. Trump announced that his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, will inform around 150 nations within the next month regarding the U.S. tariff rate on their exports. The comments were made early Friday morning on May 16, as President Trump departed Abu Dhabi—the final leg of his Middle East tour in which he secured more than a trillion dollars in investments into the United States.

“We just reached a fantastic trade deal with the United Kingdom. And we have another big one that we reached with China. At the same time, we have 150 countries that want to make a deal—but you’re not able to see that many countries,” Trump said shortly before he departed from the Middle East. “So, at a certain point over the next two to three weeks, I think Scott and Howard will be sending letters out essentially telling people—and we’ll be very fair—but we’ll be telling people what they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.”

Trump reiterated, “It’s not possible to meet the number of people who want to see us.”

Shortly after announcing a 10 percent global tariff and even higher country-specific reciprocal tariffs in early April, the Trump White House moved to pause the trade duties after most nations around the world scrambled to open talks for bilateral trade agreements. While the higher reciprocal tariffs were set aside for 90 days, the 10 percent global tariff has remained in place for nearly every country that engages in trade with the U.S.

Last week, President Trump finalized a significant bilateral trade agreement with the United Kingdom—a deal that had been sought by the United States ever since Great Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU). Under the terms of the agreement, the United States has been given unprecedented influence over the United Kingdom’s supply chains, with provisions regarding ownership structure and security guarantees appearing to be targeted at excluding Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, earlier this week, the United States and China agreed to dramatically lower the trade barriers the two nations had erected against one another for 90 days. Under the agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropped from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China reduced its levies from 125 percent to 10 percent. The move aims to de-escalate tensions from the ongoing trade dispute.

While the renewed possibility of higher tariff rates on U.S. trade partners is likely to stoke a new round of market volatility, recent hard data has clearly indicated that the tariffs have had little to no impact on inflation and, in fact, appear to be deflationary.

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May 14, 2025
Economy
News

Swing Voters Back Trump Tariffs, Poll Shows.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: A survey shows Americans in swing districts support President Donald J. Trump’s China tariffs and blame retailers for gouging prices.

👥 Who’s Involved: Donald J. Trump, American voters in 19 swing districts, retail CEOs, China.

📍 Where & When: Polling was released on May 14.

💬 Key Quote: “Our data found that swing district voters are generally behind Trump in his efforts to correct decades of outsourcing through his recent tariffs and trust him far more than the retailers to stick up for American workers,” said the Protecting America Initiative.

⚠️ Impact: The broad support for President Trump’s tariffs in key swing states could affect the upcoming mid-term elections in 2026.

IN FULL:

A new poll reveals that a plurality of voters in several key swing districts support President Donald J. Trump‘s tariff policies. The survey, released May 14, examined the opinions of voters in 19 key battleground districts and found that more voters trust President Trump on defending American workers than they trust the CEOs of major retailers.

A massive 78 percent of those polled by the Protecting America Initiative (PAI) say that those retailers should absorb the price of tariffs themselves, and half say retailers have engaged in price gouging. A further 75 percent say retailers used the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to raise their prices and saw record profits as a result.

Over 80 percent say they wish to see investigations into possible price gouging by corporations, and 78 percent say they would like to see penalties for companies that used the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to raise prices.

“Our data found that swing district voters are generally behind Trump in his efforts to correct decades of outsourcing through his recent tariffs and trust him far more than the retailers to stick up for American workers,” PAI stated.

A total of 48 percent say they support President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports, insisting that American retailers should be less dependent on the communist country and prioritise support for American manufacturing.

President Trump’s tariffs have already prompted billions of dollars in investment for American manufacturing from some of the largest companies in the world, such as Nvidia, which pledged to invest $500 billion in infrastructure and manufacturing of AI supercomputers in the U.S.

The tariffs have also contributed to a government surplus for the month of April, as the Trump administration reported over $16 billion in tariff receipts.

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May 12, 2025
Economy

Trump’s Tariffs Net $16 BILLION and Slashed Budget Deficit.

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❓What Happened: U.S. tariff receipts reached a record $16.3 billion in April, marking an 86 percent increase from March and over double the amount collected in April 2024.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, the U.S. Treasury Department, and American taxpayers.

📍 Where & When: The United States, April 2025.

💬 Key Quote: Treasury Department data shows, “Customs duties totaled $16.3 billion for the month.”

⚠️ Impact: The tariffs contributed to a $258.4 billion budget surplus for April, though the fiscal year deficit remains at $1.05 trillion.

IN FULL:

U.S. tariff revenues surged to a record $16.3 billion in April 2025, as customs duties implemented under President Donald J. Trump’s trade policies began to take full effect, according to the Treasury Department. The figure represents an 86 percent jump from March’s $8.75 billion and more than double the $7.1 billion collected during the same month last year.

The increase follows the introduction of a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on foreign imports beginning April 2, adding to previously established duties. The year-to-date total for tariff receipts now stands at $63.3 billion, an 18 percent rise compared to the same period in 2024.

Despite the U.S. continuing to grapple with a significant budget deficit, the influx of tariff revenue contributed to a $258.4 billion surplus for April. Typically, this month sees an increase in government revenue due to the mid-April income tax filing deadline. The surplus marks a 23 percent increase from April 2024, though the fiscal year deficit remains high at $1.05 trillion, a 13 percent increase from the previous year.

On an annual basis, April 2025 receipts rose 10 percent compared to 2024, while government expenditures declined by 4 percent. However, year-to-date figures show a 5 percent increase in receipts alongside a 9 percent rise in spending.

Meanwhile, high interest rates continue to weigh heavily on the federal budget. Net interest payments on the $36.2 trillion national debt reached $89 billion in April, making it the second-largest expense category after Social Security. For the fiscal year, net interest costs have totaled $579 billion.

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May 12, 2025
Wake Up Right
Economy
News

US and China Reach Trade Truce.

The U.S. and China agreed to suspend most tariffs for 90 days following high-stakes weekend trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland over the weekend.

The details: The agreement will see both nations slash their tariffs from 125 percent to 10 percent during the three-month reprieve. A separate 20 percent tariff on China for its role in the fentanyl trade will remain in place.

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday the talks led to “substantial progress,” and U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer added that the differences were “not as large as maybe thought.”
  • China echoed the optimism, calling the pending joint statement “good news for the world.”

Markets react: U.S. stock futures surged, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ rising more than three percent. The dollar and bonds also jumped.

Trump reacts: President Trump struck an optimistic tone on Sunday, writing:

  • “A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland. Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner. We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!”

What happens next? Talks will continue, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

These terms go into effect on Wednesday.

Peace is in the air: Over the weekend, President Trump also announced that India and Pakistan agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire” following negotiations mediated by the United States.

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The U.S. and China agreed to suspend most tariffs for 90 days following high-stakes weekend trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland over the weekend. show more
May 8, 2025
Economy
News

Farmers Rally in Support of Trump’s Tariff Strategy.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: American farmers are showing strong support for President Trump’s trade policies, expecting tariffs to bolster the agricultural sector.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, American farmers, Purdue University, and CME Group.

📍 Where & When: United States, April (latest data from Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer).

💬 Key Quote: “This month, one out of four respondents said it was a good time to make large investments.” — Perdue University study.

⚠️ Impact: Increased farmer optimism and investment intentions, with expectations of improved financial performance.

IN FULL:

Farmers across America are expressing robust support for President Donald J. Trump‘s trade policies, according to the latest data from the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The survey reveals that 70 percent of farmers believe the tariffs imposed under Trump’s administration will ultimately strengthen the agricultural sector. This optimistic outlook is reflected in the significant rise in farmer sentiment observed in April, with both current and future expectations showing marked improvement.

The Farm Capital Investment Index, a key measure of farmers‘ willingness to invest, has reached its highest level since May 2021. This surge in investment sentiment is underscored by the finding that one in four respondents considers it a favorable time to make substantial investments. This figure is nearly twice the percentage recorded in surveys conducted from May to October of the previous year.

Moreover, the Farm Financial Performance Index has remained above 100 for four consecutive months. This indicates that producers anticipate financial performance this year to be on par with, or slightly exceed, the levels seen last year.

The data underscores a growing confidence among American farmers in the Trump administration’s economic strategies. By focusing on restoring fairness in global trade and opening new markets for U.S. producers, the administration has garnered significant support within the agricultural community.

The optimism of farmers matches the similar sentiment expressed by those in the manufacturing industry, who have also praised President Trump’s tariff policies.

President Trump has said his new trade deal with the United Kingdom, announced Thursday, will significantly open the British market to American produce.

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