Can This Pro-Trump Candidate Pull Off an Upset Tomorrow?

A new poll out in Virginia shows that tomorrow’s gubernatorial primary election may be a lot closer than many originally predicted. Previous polling showed establishment favorite, former RNC chairman and unsuccessful 2014 Senate candidate Ed Gillespie, with a comfortable double digit lead over Prince William County supervisor — and outspoken Trump supporter — Corey Stewart. However, the new poll places Stewart ahead with 42 percent to Gillespie’s 41 percent among Republicans who say they will definitely vote. Stewart’s strength in this poll comes from his energized base and their likelihood to actually make the trip to their polling place. According to

Who Loves Abortion More? Democrats Race to the Bottom in Virginia

In the Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, it’s a race to the bottom as a pair of candidates try to prove who is more radical in his support for abortion. The two hopefuls, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam and one-term former Congressman Tom Perriello, are attacking each other for not supporting abortion enough. Perriello, a Bernie Sanders disciple, is apologizing profusely for voting in favor of the Stupak-Pitts Amendment, a 2009 amendment to an early version of Obamacare that would have banned taxpayer funding of abortions through Obamacare. Sixty-three other Democrats voted in favor of the amendment (which didn’t

Battleground 2017: A Rundown on This Year’s Biggest Elections

As I wrote last week, Virginia’s statewide elections this November will be a critical bellwether on how voters are feeling about Donald Trump, the Republican White House, and the Republican agenda. Democrats will pour millions of dollars into the race, seeking to test their message in a purple state before the 2018 midterm elections. Republicans will be looking for a stamp of approval of their first year in control that will fuel their attempts to build their U.S. Senate majority in 2018. Political observers will be watching Virginia very closely. Virginia was a red state for decades, but demographic changes

Why Virginia Matters in 2017 — Even to Non-Virginians

It’s hard to underestimate the importance of the statewide elections in Virginia in 2017. Virginia is the epitome of a purple battleground state, with Democrats dominating the densely populated Washington, D.C., suburbs in Northern Virginia, and Republicans dominating pretty much everywhere else. As one of two states to have constitutionally-required statewide elections every year, it’s the place to be for political junkies. The results of the November elections will be a referendum on President Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress. Republican Bob McDonnell won the governorship in 2009 partly as a repudiation of Obama’s first year in office, in

Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot. Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs. Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a

New Polls Show Trump Needs Just One More State to Win

A new Florida poll from Suffolk University was released today showing Donald Trump with a slim, single-point lead over Hillary Clinton. But while this was only the latest poll showing a close race in the Sunshine State, it was enough to tip RealClearPolitics’ Florida polling average in the direction of Trump, who now leads by a slender 0.1-point margin. This means, going by RCP’s polling average in each state, Trump has closed to within six electoral votes of Clinton if the election were held today:   So, assuming all current polling is generally accurate, Trump still needs to see significant

New State Polls Confirm Trump’s Upward Trend

On Friday, we broke down the Electoral College and proposed several different scenarios where Trump could win the presidency. He needs to perform well in 12 key battleground states. Iowa and Virginia are two of those states. And according to a new pair of Emerson polls, Trump is winning in Iowa and virtually tied in Virginia. Emerson (Iowa, 8/31 – 9/1): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8 (Trump +5) Emerson (Virginia, 8/31 – 9/1): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11 (Clinton +1) That being said, we should probably curb our enthusiasm. Trump still has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania

State-by-State Breakdown: Here’s How Hillary Could Lose

When trying to handicap the presidential race, it is tempting to rely on national polling. But ultimately the next president is not determined by the popular vote — he or she will be determined state-by-state via the electoral college. We report on national polling at The Pulse 2016 all the time, so I don’t mean to suggest there isn’t use for it. Analytics outfits like FiveThirtyEight have found heavy correlations between national polling and election results at the state level. Because of this correlation, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that, if Clinton wins the popular vote by ten points on

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