A polar vortex poised to pummel the Midwest could result in low voter turnout in Iowa that “would disproportionately affect Trump.”
Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State. Schmidt, told Axios the harsh winter conditions are most likely to negatively impact turnout amongst older Iowans. This “could disproportionately affect Trump,” said local Democrat strategist Jeff Link, as older voters skew in favor of the former President compared to his opponents. Bad winter weather in the Hawkeye State has already disrupted campaigning, with Trump and a number of his opponents having canceled campaign events due to inclement conditions.
Iowa, which holds its Republican Caucus vote on Tuesday, faces a winter storm warning with a projected snowfall of roughly one foot as an Arctic storm front descends upon the Midwest. Meteorologists are predicting that the extreme snowfall will be followed by a polar vortex sweeping into the region.
Trump’s dominance in the polls could also prove a hindrance to him on Caucus Day, as the feeling that his win is inevitable may cause complacency amongst his supporters, many of whom would then choose to stay home rather than face the cold.