Carson leads Clinton in a head-to-head match up, crushing her 50 percent to 40 percent (Rubio, Cruz and Christie also top Clinton, although by smaller margins). Campaigns matter, and Carson hasn’t yet been tested as a candidate or a leader. But Carson appears able to draw some fraction of Clinton’s base.
The signs of a Final Four are emerging, with Cruz and Rubio neck-and-neck at 13 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
Jeb Bush has dropped to 4 percent.
Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project.