For weeks, polls have shown Democrat Roy Cooper leading North Carolina’s Gov. Pat McCrory. But a September 11-12 Civitas poll found McCrory had fought his way back to a two-point lead. Pundits began saying opposition to all things transgender was a political death knell.

Now, a second new poll from Elon University of 644 likely voters surveyed from September 12-16 confirms that McCrory leads Cooper by 2.7 percentage points: 48.7 percent to 46 percent, as independents break strongly for him.  This poll was taken after the NCAA decided to strip the “March Madness” games from Greensboro, N.C., as punishment for the state passing HB 2.

Its also notable that McCrory is outpolling incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr, who is one point behind Democrat Deborah Ross in his race to retain his Senate seat. Burr has refused to support or oppose HB 2. “Burr has held a lead over Ross in many polls, including a 4-point lead in our last April poll of registered voters. That Burr has fallen in this poll while McCrory has risen is a surprise to us,” admit the Elon pollsters.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe.