Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s governing national conservative party, has likely lost power to a coalition of liberal parties led by former European Council president Donald Tusk in an election with record-high turnout.
Exit and late polls indicate PiS, which became the first party since the fall of communism to win an outright majority in the Polish legislature in 2015, and retained power in 2019, will still be the largest party in the Sejm (roughly equivalent to the U.S. House of Representatives) once all the votes are counted – but not large enough to govern alone.
Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), comprised of several “centrist” and left-leaning parties, is in second, but the smaller Third Way (TD) and New Left (Nowa Lewice/NL) coalitions have indicated they will ally with Tusk to form a combined government. The three together should be able to command a slim but decisive legislative majority.
Konfederacja (Confederation), a pro-tax cuts, anti-mass migration party, ruled out forming a coalition with PiS prior to the elections, but may have enabled it to continue leading a minority government in exchange for key policy concession. It appears to have performed far below expectations, however, and will most likely be unable to help PiS reach the required 231-seat majority to pass a budget.
Poland, Ipsos late poll:
Seat projection
PiS-ECR: 198 (-2)
KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 161 (-2)
TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 57 (+2)
NL-S&D: 30
Kon~NI: 14 (+2)Majority: 231
+/- vs. exit poll
Fieldwork: 15 October 2023
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— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) October 16, 2023
PiS organized four referendums to fall on the same day as the election. Voters were asked whether state-owned companies should be sold to foreign entities, whether the European Union should be allowed to impose migrant quotas on Poland, whether a border wall should be dismantled, and whether the retirement age, which PiS lowered to 60 for women and 65 for men, should be increased. All four proposals appear to have been rejected by overwhelming margins of over 95 percent.
Tusk increased the retirement age to 67 when he was Prime Minister, and his party agreed to a EU migrant quotas and opposed the border wall. They have attempted to sabotage the referendums, however, by urging supporters to boycott them, as results are not binding unless over 50 percent of the electorate participates.
Currently, turnout in the elections stands at over 70 percent, but turnout in the referendums is hovering around 45 percent.