The global head of credit for Vanguard — the second-largest global asset manager with $8.6 trillion in investments — has warned that there are signs the United States could slip into an economic recession in the second half of 2024. Chris Alwine, who leads the global credit team at Vanguard, says he believes the Federal Reserve hasn’t yet pulled off its ‘soft landing’ and that strong jobs numbers will likely delay any interest rate cuts until much later in the year.
“The challenge that the Fed has is that to be able to land that soft landing, which is always a low probability, they have to be able to ease policy at the exact correct time, which is difficult, and they need a little bit of luck,” Alwine said in a recent interview with Barron’s. He added that 2024 is likely to be “a tale of two halves” with greater economic risks emerging in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
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“What would precipitate that shallow recession is that corporations are just not hiring, with a modest increase in layoffs,” Alwine noted.
Strong job market numbers over the past few months, cheered by the Biden government, will likely cause the Federal Reserve to push back an expected cut to interest rates until at least the 3rd quarter of 2024. With rates remaining elevated, layoffs in capital-intensive industries are likely to continue — eventually causing the hot job market to cool.
Despite the positive employment reports, voter confidence in the economy remains low. High interest rates, continued worries about inflation, sluggish GDP projections, and fears of a recession are all likely drivers of President Joe Biden’s low economic approval rating.
By Popular Demand.
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❓ What Happened:The Atlantic quietly edited a hit piece smearing Joe Kent, Trump’s nominee for Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, after falsely suggesting his ‘panzer’ (‘tank’ in German) tattoo was a Nazi dogwhistle. The National Pulse produced evidence that he served in an anti-tank unit and has a matching ‘jäger’ (‘hunter’) tattoo.
👥 Who’s Involved: Joe Kent, The Atlantic writer Ali Breland, The National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).
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📍 Where & When: Online, with edits made to The Atlantic’s article in May 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “After this story was published, The National Pulse… released a photo featuring a man with a jäger tattoo on his right arm whom Kassam identifies as Kent,” The Atlantic’s edited article states.
⚠️ Impact: The controversy exposes media bias and sloppy reporting, undermining The Atlantic’s credibility and partisan efforts to discredit President Trump’s nominees.
IN FULL:
The Atlantic has edited its Who Gets Panzer Tattooed on Their Arm? hit piece on Joe Kent, President Donald J. Trump’s nominee for Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, which smears the war veteran for having a tattoo reading ‘panzer’—German for ‘tank’—on one of his arms.
Writer Ali Breland suggested the tattoo may be a Nazi dogwhistle, dismissing social media users who cautioned that U.S. servicemen in anti-tank roles often have the words ‘panzer’ and ‘jäger’ tattooed on each arm, for ‘tank hunter.’ This was popularized in the U.S. Army after the Second World War, as Americans were posted to West Germany—a NATO ally—to face off against Soviet forces.
Breland’s article originally stated he “couldn’t find any evidence that Kent was part of an anti-tank unit… or that he even has a jäger tattoo on his other arm.” However, Raheem Kassam, Editor-in-Chief of The National Pulse, soon produced photographic evidence that Kent does have a matching ‘jäger’ tattoo, and did serve in an anti-tank section of the 2nd Ranger Battalion from 1998 to 2001—forcing The Atlantic to edit Breland’s hit piece.
“After this story was published, The National Pulse, a right-wing website founded and operated by the Steven Bannon ally Raheem J. Kassam, released a photo featuring a man with a jäger tattoo on his right arm whom Kassam identifies as Kent,” the article now reads, as if the image published by The National Pulse—in which Kent’s face is clearly visible—is somehow open to question. “I reached out to both Kent and ODNI to inquire about the photo’s authenticity, but did not immediately hear back,” the edit adds, further trying to muddy the waters.
The image, as seen below, is clearly Kent:
Even more disingenuously, the section of the article in which Breland notes he “couldn’t find any evidence that Kent was part of an anti-tank unit” has been altered—with no editor’s note to inform readers of the alteration—to state that “Kent was part of a battalion that, in part, did anti-tank work.”
As of the time of publication, the only editor’s note attached to the doctored article simply states, “This article previously misstated the name of Alexa Henning, a deputy chief of staff at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It has been updated to include additional context about Joseph Kent’s military service.”
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By Popular Demand.
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❓What Happened: An F/A-18 Super Hornet fell off the USS Harry S. Truman for the second time in a week, ending up in the Red Sea. This second incident appears to have been caused by an equipment failure on the vessel’s deck.
👥 Who’s Involved: The aircraft’s pilot and weapons systems officer ejected safely, sustaining minor injuries. No flight deck personnel were harmed.
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📍 Where & When: The incident occurred in the Red Sea on May 6, 2025, following a similar incident in late April.
💬 Key Quote: “Both aviators safely ejected and were rescued by a helicopter assigned to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 11. The aviators were evaluated by medical personnel and assessed to have minor injuries. No flight deck personnel were injured,” a defense official said.
⚠️ Impact: The loss of the jet, valued at approximately $66 million, adds to a series of mishaps for the USS Harry S. Truman over the past year.
IN FULL:
In a troubling repeat occurrence, an F/A-18 Super Hornet has fallen from the USS Harry S. Truman into the Red Sea, marking the second such incident in a week. The pilot and weapons systems officer aboard the aircraft were compelled to eject after a failed arrestment, resulting in minor injuries. The two were promptly rescued by a helicopter, according to a defense official.
The mishap reportedly involved a failure of the tail hook to catch the arresting wire, a critical component in safely landing the aircraft on the carrier deck. This failure caused the jet to accelerate uncontrollably towards the bow and ultimately into the water.
“Both aviators safely ejected and were rescued by a helicopter assigned to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 11,” a defense official said regarding the incident, adding: “The aviators were evaluated by medical personnel and assessed to have minor injuries. No flight deck personnel were injured.”
This latest aircraft loss involving the USS Harry S. Truman follows another in late April, where a similar aircraft slid overboard while being towed in the hangar bay. Some sources suggested the first loss occurred after the crew lost control during evasive maneuvers against Yemen’s Houthi militants. The financial implications are significant, with each F/A-18E valued at approximately $66 million.
The USS Harry S. Truman has faced a string of operational challenges over the past year. Notably, the vessel collided with a merchant ship near the Suez Canal in February, resulting in a change of command. Additionally, an F/A-18 fighter jet was mistakenly fired upon by another American aircraft carrier in December.
❓What Happened: Former President George W. Bush is not expected to attend a White House ceremony honoring the late Barbara Bush with a U.S. Postal Service stamp.
👥 Who’s Involved: George W. Bush, Melania Trump, Dorothy Bush Koch, Alice Yates.
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📍 Where & When: The White House’s East Room, Thursday.
💬 Key Quote: George W. Bush previously remarked that politics has become “a naked appeal to anger, fear, and resentment.”
⚠️ Impact: The decision underscores ongoing tensions between Bush and President Donald J. Trump.
IN FULL:
Former President George W. Bush is reportedly not attending a White House event hosted by First Lady Melania Trump to honor his late mother, Barbara Bush, with a commemorative U.S. Postal Service stamp. The event is set to take place in the East Room on Thursday, with Dorothy Bush Koch, George W. Bush’s sister, and Alice Yates, CEO of the George and Barbara Bush Foundation, among the featured speakers.
Despite attending both of President Donald J. Trump’s inaugurations, George W. Bush refrained from endorsing him in any of his presidential campaigns. This absence from the ceremony further highlights the strained relationship between Bush and Trump.
In a 2021 event marking 20 years since the 9/11 attacks, Bush expressed concerns over the current state of politics, stating it had become “a naked appeal to anger, fear, and resentment.” Trump interpreted these remarks as directed towards him, responding by criticizing Bush’s presidency as “failed and uninspiring.”
The tension between Trump and the Bush family extends back to Barbara Bush herself, who was critical of Trump. In the bookThe Matriarch: Barbara Bush and the Making of a Dynasty, she described Trump as “a symbol of greed.” Before her passing in 2018, Barbara Bush reportedly distanced herself from the Republican Party, despite being a prominent figure within it.
Trump’s past comments also reflect this contentious relationship. In 2019, he remarked on Barbara Bush’s criticism, linking it to his rivalry with her son, Jeb Bush. “Look what I did to her sons,” Trump said, referencing his political battles with the former Florida Governor.
A critic of the pro-war foreign policy of the Bush era, President Trump has previously vowed the GOP is “never going back to the party of Paul Ryan, Karl Rove, and Jeb Bush,” now the America First era of conservatism has been ushered in.
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By Popular Demand.
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❓What Happened: House Democrats are urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to preserve the Community Relations Service, a civil rights-era office under threat of closure. The program, ostensibly intended to resolve ethnic tensions, was deployed twice in Minneapolis during the George Floyd riots with little effect.
👥 Who’s Involved: Over two dozen House Democrats, including Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), have reached out to Bondi and the Justice Department (DOJ).
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📍 Where & When: The letter was sent on Wednesday, May 7, 2024, with concerns stemming from a Justice Department memo reviewed last month.
💬 Key Quote: “We strongly urge you to abandon any plans of dissolving the work of the Community Relations Service,” wrote the House Democrats.
⚠️ Impact: Supporters contend that closing the office could increase the risk of racial unrest and legal challenges, while detractors contend it can exacerbate racial grievances.
IN FULL:
House Democrats are formally appealing to Attorney General Pam Bondi, urging her to maintain the Community Relations Service, a non-investigative and nonprosecutorial office established under the Department of Justice (DOJ) during the civil rights era. This office, often termed the “peacemakers program,” faces potential closure according to a DOJ memo issued last month.
Created under the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Community Relations Service ostensibly aims to mediate and resolve racial and ethnic tensions, conflicts, and civil disturbances, fostering racial harmony and stability. Notably, the office was twice deployed to Minneapolis during the George Floyd riots but appears to have had little impact.
“We are aware that during the previous Trump Administration there was a similar effort to abandon the valuable work of the Community Relations Service by recommending its elimination in budget proposals and reducing staffing,” the letter, spearheaded by Represenative Bobby Scott (D-VA), reads, adding: “We strongly urge you to abandon any plans of dissolving the work of the Community Relations Service.”
While the Community Relations Service, expanded under the 2008 Emmett Till Unsolved Civil Rights Crime Act, does not possess law enforcement authority—instead offering confidential and free services to communities—the program received a budget of $24 million in the 2024 fiscal year. Notably, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has recommended the elimination of similar programs at other federal agencies to cut government waste.
❓What Happened: Antifa militants and transgender activists disrupted a Turning Point USA event at the University of Washington, targeting attendees and volunteers.
👥 Who’s Involved: The protest involved Antifa militants, transgender activists, women’s rights activists Riley Gaines and Olivia Krolczyk, and Turning Point USA (TPUSA).
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📍 Where & When: The incident took place at the University of Washington in Seattle on Tuesday during a TPUSA event.
💬 Key Quote: “I bet your old a** blood is beautiful on the concrete,” a female militant told an elderly couple.
⚠️ Impact: No arrests were made. The event highlights tensions between free speech and transgenderism on college campuses.
IN FULL:
A Turning Point USA event at the University of Washington in Seattle on May 6 saw far-left Antifa militants and transgenders throw feces at attendees and threaten elderly people with violence. The event, featuring women’s rights activists Riley Gaines and Olivia Krolczyk, was targeted by the far-left extremists.
The protest began with around 100 demonstrators, primarily transgender activists, arriving an hour before the event. Antifa members, dressed in black bloc attire to conceal their identities, acted as “security” for the group. Demonstrators carried pro-trans signs and shouted phrases such as “God is trans” to challenge the presence of Gaines and TPUSA on campus.
The situation escalated when protesters left their designated area, moving closer to the event venue. At approximately 6:32 PM, a protester threw a bag of dog feces at a TPUSA volunteer, an act captured on video. Despite police presence, no arrests were made.
Breaking: Antifa militants are hunting down an elderly couple in Seattle after they left the Riley Gaines TPUSA event.
— Katie Daviscourt 📸 (@KatieDaviscourt) May 7, 2025
Later, Antifa militants targeted attendees exiting the venue. An elderly couple, escorted by police, was followed and verbally harassed by militants who wished death upon them. One militant told the couple, “I bet your old a** blood is beautiful on the concrete.” Half-hearted police efforts to intervene were unsuccessful, but the couple eventually reached their vehicle safely.
A woman with health issues, using a cane, was also targeted and mocked by the same militants as she made her way to the parking lot. The militants hurled insults and threats, accusing her of transphobia.
The protest was organized by the UW Progressive Student Union, which circulated a flyer featuring images of firearms and the phrase “Protect trans youth.”
The protests highlighted the willingness to use threats and violence by transgender extremists. Earlier this year, a Border Patrol official was murdered by a transgender duo who are allegedly part of a transgender terror group known as the Zizians.
Their leader, Jack “Ziz” LaSota, was arrested in February after skipping a trial last December and faking his death to avoid prosecution. The group is believed to be linked to at least four murders, including the killing of a former landlord whom one of the group had previously stabbed in the chest with a sword.
Breaking: A trans Antifa militant assaulted a volunteer at the TPUSA @Riley_Gaines_ event.
The militant suspect threw a bag of feces at the victim.
Tension has drastically increased. Antifa is now posted up in front of the event venue. pic.twitter.com/CCd2zMNRcE
— Katie Daviscourt 📸 (@KatieDaviscourt) May 7, 2025
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By Popular Demand.
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❓What Happened: The cost of accommodating asylum seekers in the United Kingdom is now projected to be $20.3 billion, triple the initial $6 billion estimate by the Home Office.
👥 Who’s Involved: The British government, the National Audit Office (NAO), Serco, Mears, Clearsprings, and Britain’s Home Office.
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📍 Where & When: United Kingdom, contracts signed in 2019.
💬 Key Quote: A Home Office spokesman blamed the prior Conservative (Tory) government for “disastrous contracts that were wasting millions in taxpayer money.”
⚠️ Impact: Rising costs are attributed to an increase in asylum seekers housed in hotels, with significant profits for private providers and ongoing challenges for the government.
IN FULL:
According to a report by Britain’s National Audit Office (NAO), the financial burden on taxpayers for accommodating asylum seekers is now expected to reach the equivalent of $20.3 billion. This figure is a significant increase from the $6 billion initially projected by the Home Office—roughly equivalent to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—when contracts were signed in 2019.
The NAO report highlights that the rising costs are largely driven by the increased number of asylum seekers in hotels. The number of asylum seekers in hotels rose from approximately 47,000 in December 2019 to an anticipated 110,000 by December 2024. Despite hotels accommodating around a third of the asylum seekers, they consume three-quarters of the budget for accommodation.
Contracts were originally signed with three private companies—Serco, Mears, and Clearsprings—to manage asylum accommodation. Between September 2019 and August 2024, these companies reportedly made a combined profit of $511 million. Clearsprings, in particular, saw its contract in the south of England balloon from $0.9 billion to an expected $9.3 billion.
The Home Office, now under the control of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, has faced criticism for its handling of the situation. A spokesman pointed fingers at the previous Conservative government for what they termed “disastrous contracts,” which have led to a significant waste of taxpayer money.
A senior Home Office source attributed the rising accommodation costs to the increase in people crossing the English Channel on small boats, a situation exacerbated by people-smuggling gangs. Despite the surge of migrants crossing the English Channel in recent years, and the migrants plainly not being in danger in France and the other Western European countries they launch from, a report from last year indicated very few have been deported. For instance, as little as 0.5 percent of those who entered illegally in 2023 were ever deported.
❓What Happened: The Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate at 4.3 percent, resisting pressure to lower it.
👥 Who’s Involved: The Federal Reserve, President Donald J. Trump, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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📍 Where & When: Washington, D.C., during the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on May 7, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent,” the FOMC statement reads.
⚠️ Impact: The decision reflects concerns over rising inflation and unemployment, exacerbated by economic uncertainty from tariffs.
IN FULL:
The Federal Reserve has chosen to keep its key interest rate steady at 4.3 percent, despite calls from President Donald J. Trump to lower borrowing costs. This decision, announced on Wednesday, marks the third consecutive meeting where rates have remained unchanged after a series of cuts late last year, when then-Vice President Kamala Harris was seeking to succeed then-President Joe Biden. The Fed’s statement claimed increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, noting heightened risks of both inflation and unemployment.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen,” the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee statement reads. It adds: “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
In recent months, President Trump has increased pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to increase domestic economic liquidity as his tariff policies reduce foreign imports. Late last month, the America First leader posted on Truth Social, urging Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower borrowing rates: “‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many… With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already ‘lowered’ seven times.”
Earlier in April, Trump accused Powell of playing politics by refusing to cut rates, leading to a push by the White House to see Powell removed as the central bank’s chairman.
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By Popular Demand.
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❓What Happened: A federal judge ruled that a class action lawsuit against Burger King for allegedly misleading advertising can proceed. The plaintiffs allege that the fast food chain misrepresents the size of its burgers in its advertisements.
👥 Who’s Involved: U.S. District Court Judge Roy K. Altman, Burger King, and 19 customers from 13 states.
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📍 Where & When: Florida, with the ruling handed down on Monday, May 5, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: Judge Altman noted the plaintiff’s claims “go beyond mere exaggeration or puffery.”
⚠️ Impact: The federal court ruling will allow the lawsuit to proceed, potentially affecting Burger King’s advertising practices. Similar legal actions against McDonald’s and Wendy’s were dismissed late last year.
IN FULL:
A federal judge will allow a class action lawsuit against Burger King to move forward, with plaintiffs claiming the fast food giant misrepresents the size of its Whopper cheeseburger in advertisements. U.S. District Court Judge Roy K. Altman, presiding over the case in Florida, determined that there is “some” merit to the argument that Burger King’s ads made their burgers appear larger than they are in reality.
The lawsuit, initiated in 2022, involves 19 customers from 13 states. These plaintiffs allege that the advertised burgers appeared approximately 35 percent larger and were shown to contain more than twice the meat of the actual product received. The plaintiffs provided side-by-side images comparing the vibrant, appealing advertisements to the less impressive burgers they received.
Judge Altman rejected Burger King’s attempt to dismiss the case, stating that the allegations “go beyond mere exaggeration or puffery.”
“The plaintiffs’ claims are false,” a Burger King spokesman commented, maintaining that the flame-grilled beef patties shown in advertisements are identical to those served to customers across the United States. Notably, similar lawsuits filed against McDonald’s and Wendy’s were dismissed last September.
❓What Happened: Nigel Farage’s Reform Party achieved a significant polling lead following local election successes in England.
👥 Who’s Involved: Nigel Farage, Reform Deputy Leader Richard Tice MP, Luke Tryl, and the Labour and Conservative parties.
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📍 Where & When: England, following the local elections on May 1, with polling data released shortly after.
💬 Key Quote: “Another record Reform poll… [and] these are before the latest Labour mass immigration blunder.” — Richard Tice.
⚠️ Impact: Reform is potentially reshaping the political landscape by positioning itself as the primary opposition to Labour, displacing the formerly governing Conservatives on the British right.
IN FULL:
Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has taken a commanding polling lead after a successful showing in England’s municipal elections on May 1. According to recent YouGov data, the party, led by Brexit leader Nigel Farage, is now 12 points ahead of the Conservatives and seven points clear of the ruling Labour Party. Reform is the only major party to have gained ground since the last survey conducted in late April.
The latest figures indicate that 29 percent of Britons would vote for Reform if a General Election were held today, compared to 22 percent for Labour and 17 percent for the Conservatives. Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, highlighted this surge: “Another record Reform poll… [and] these are before the latest Labour mass immigration blunder.”
Luke Tryl, a director at More In Common and polling expert, observed, “Reform UK momentum continues as they hit 27 per cent in our voting intention poll, their highest we have recorded and [their] first lead outside the margin of error.”
A Reform spokesman said that the Conservative Party, which governed largely from the center-left from 2010 to mid-2024, is in “terminal decline,” suggesting that Reform has now positioned itself as the real opposition to Labour.
Reform dominated the local council elections in England, with Farage saying that his party’s triumph was an “apocalypse” for the two-party system in Britain.
❓What Happened: Cory Bowman, half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance, advanced to the Cincinnati mayoral general election in November with 13 percent of the vote.
📍 Where & When: Cincinnati, Ohio; with the nonpartisan primary occurring on Tuesday, May 6, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: Bowman stated, “As I was flying back here from the inauguration, it occurred to me that I could do something to serve the community.”
⚠️ Impact: Bowman will square off against Cincinnati’s incumbent Mayor Aftab Pureval in the Democrat-leaning city during the November 4 election.
IN FULL:
Cory Bowman, the half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance, has secured a spot in the upcoming general election for Cincinnati‘s mayoral race. Garnering 13 percent of the vote in the recent nonpartisan primary, Bowman, a Republican, will face off against Democratic incumbent Aftab Pureval, who commanded a significant 82.5 percent of the vote. Only the top two vote recipients in the city’s nonpartisan primary advance to the November general election. A second Republican candidate, Brian Frank, was eliminated after receiving just 4.6 percent of the vote.
The city of Cincinnati, known for its Democratic leanings, has not seen a Republican candidate in its mayoral elections since 2009, when former Congressman Brad Wenstrup (R-OH) was defeated by Mark Mallory. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris secured 76 percent of the vote compared to President Donald J. Trump‘s 24 percent. Currently, all nine members of the Cincinnati City Council are Democrats.
Bowman, a pastor at River Church and owner of Kings Arms Coffee Shop, is making his first foray into public office. Inspired after attending the inauguration of President Trump and Vice President Vance, he expressed a desire to serve his community, stating, “As I was flying back here from the inauguration, it occurred to me that I could do something to serve the community.”
While Vice President Vance has not actively campaigned for Bowman, he did offer support via social media, describing Bowman as “a good guy with a heart for serving his community.”
Reacting to the primary results, Bowman acknowledged Pureval’s strong start but remained optimistic about closing the gap, noting, “We’re kind of catching up a little bit.”
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By Popular Demand.
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