Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could be the first third-party candidate to qualify for a presidential debate since Ross Perot in 1992. However, the scion of the Kennedy clan needs to jump through a few hoops before he finds himself on a debate stage with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Whether RFK, Jr. is allowed to debate alongside the Republican and Democrat Party nominees will largely depend on who organizes the presidential debate itself. Debates sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) have a series of criteria that third-party candidates must meet before they’re included on the debate stage.
COMMISSION DEBATE RULES.
New CPD rules adopted in 2019 require candidates to garner an average of 15 percent of the vote, averaged across five national presidential polls. Additionally, third-party candidates must have acquired ballot access in enough states to demonstrate their electoral viability. This means they, at least hypothetically, could win the 270 electoral votes required to secure the presidency.
RFK, Jr. does not currently meet either of the CPD’s stipulations. Recent national polling shows the Kennedy family member garnering between 8 and 11 percent of the vote, falling short of the 15 percent threshold. Additionally, the independent presidential candidate remains well shy of being mathematically able to win the presidency, having achieved ballot access in only a handful of states.
RFK JR. SHORT OF QUALIFYING, FOR NOW.
The Kennedy campaign site indicates that the candidate has secured a ballot line in only seven states — including Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. This comes to a total of 37 electoral votes, well shy of the 270 needed to win the White House. However, analysis by The National Pulse indicates that RFK, Jr. may be closer to electoral viability than his campaign lets on, having exceeded ballot qualification criteria in at least ten states when accounting for write-in rules — meaning he could win a maximum of 90 electors at the moment.
ALTERNATIVE DEBATE?
The CPD rules may not matter at all since the Republican National Committee (RNC) appears to be still boycotting the group’s sponsorship of presidential debates. An alternative debate agreed to by the Republican and Democratic Parties could potentially include Kennedy — though whether Biden or Trump would greenlight his inclusion is unclear.