Russia has captured more Ukrainian territory since April, at 294 square miles, than Ukraine managed to capture across its entire 2023 counter-offensive, at 199 square miles. Russia’s gains across the past year are even greater, at 553 square miles.
Ukraine embarked on an ambitious counter-offensive in 2023 at Western urging, with forces trained in the West and armed with Western tanks and other equipment. However, only marginal gains were made in exchange for heavy losses, while the Russians were able to win a bruising battle for the fortress town of Bakhmut.
Since the beginning of 2024, the Ukrainians have been firmly on the defensive, with the Russians building up a substantial advantage in manpower and artillery and capturing another fortress town, Avdiivka, contested since hostilities between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists commenced in 2014.
Now, Russian forces have opened another front in the north-eastern Kharkov (Kharkiv) region, named for Ukraine’s second-largest city. Russian troops made quick, substantial gains despite Ukrainian forces having had well over a year to prepare defenses, with reports suggesting much of the money for fortifications may have been diverted to fake companies.
‘FANTASTICAL’ WESTERN GOALS.
The Kharkov offensive has seemingly involved only a relatively small number of troops, but has forced Zelensky to divert forces to the region despite his forces already being spread thin in the eastern Donbass (Donbas) region, which has been the epicenter of the war for months now.
Russian forces have also begun pressing Ukrainian lines in the south, where the Ukrainians made some of their modest gains last year.
Even with a multi-billion dollar aid package for Ukraine having been passed, it seems doubtful Zelensky can organize another counter-offensive any time soon. U.S. officials have lamented a “mountain of steel” was built up for the 2023 counter-offensive, and the equipment to build up another mountain “doesn’t exist.”
America First lawmaker J.D. Vance has further warned that however much aid Congress approves for Zelensky, the U.S. lacks the military-industrial capacity to meet Ukraine’s needs, particularly with respect to artillery production.
“Russia could soon have a 10-to-1 artillery advantage over Ukraine… Russia’s current advantage is at least 5 to 1, even after all the money we have poured into the conflict. Neither of these ratios plausibly lead to Ukrainian victory,” Vance stressed in April, urging Zelensky and the Biden regime to give up their “fantastical” war goals of a total Russian rout, including from Crimea, and come to a negotiated peace.
Russia's advance north of Kharkiv, as illustrated by @guardian using ISW map data pic.twitter.com/OSSJpwCBlO
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 17, 2024
