Britain’s far-left Labour Party is on track to secure a historic majority in the upcoming general election, according to the latest MRP analysis conducted by pollster Survation. If the UK election were held today, Labour would achieve an unprecedented majority of 324 seats, the largest in modern British politics. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would take just three seats, and the governing Conservative Party would be reduced to a humiliating 71.
The analysis is based on interviews with 30,044 respondents, collected both online and via telephone from May 22 to June 2, 2024.
Labour is projected to dominate with 487 seats in total. The Liberal Democrat Party and the Scottish National Party are forecasted to win 43 and 26 seats, respectively. While Reform’s share seems low in comparison, it is a brand-new party without any current stronghold of support. In fact, this result represents the first time a pollster even has the party any winning seats.
In a notable shift, the Liberal Democrats are competitive in several Conservative strongholds, including Chesham and Amersham, and could make gains in Scotland. The Green Party, although not projected to win seats, could secure significant vote shares in Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central.
While the SNP remains the largest party in Scotland with an estimated 26 seats, it faces a strong challenge from a resurgent Labour Party, which is leading in 24 Scottish seats. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are also leading in four and three Scottish seats, respectively.
The Conservative Party faces an immense challenge, trailing Labour by 21 points in national polling. If this deficit persists, it could result in the party’s worst defeat in its history. Tactical voting could prove pivotal in key seats like Maidenhead, where the Conservatives hold a slim lead over both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
