Poll after poll indicates young voters are warming to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Are they coming around to his policies—or has Biden driven them away from his own? It could be both.
The numbers: According to the latest NY Times polling, young voters [age 18-29] prefer Biden by just two points, 47 percent to 45 percent. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump beating Biden with young voters [age 18-34], 48 percent to 4 percent.
For perspective: In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden took the youth vote by 24 percent. A Republican has not won this demographic since 1988.
Biden’s losing message: Aidan Kohn-Murphy, the founder of a group called Gen Z for Change, which backed Biden in 2020, told the Washington Post, “Biden is out of step with young people on a number of key issues.” Three key issues are:
- The war in Gaza, where 51 percent of young voters support the Palestinians vs. 15 percent for Israel.
- Biden’s support for a TikTok ban is being received as an assault on free speech. 67 percent of Gen Z say this makes them less likely to vote for him.
- Economy: High inflation and interest rates have made food and housing costs unreasonable for young people entering the workforce or trying to buy their first time.
Trump’s winning message: The 45h president’s message is resonating with young voters.
- Gaza: While he backs Israel, he has promised to bring a peaceful end to the war in Gaza and points to his first term’s four years of peace as proof that he can.
- TikTok: He joined TikTok earlier this month and reminds young voters that Biden wants to shut the platform down.
- Economy: When asked earlier this month how they felt about Trump’s handling of the economy, 65 percent of young voters approved versus just 33 percent for Biden.
TikTok vibe check: According to CredoIQ, a social media analytics firm, nearly 25 percent of the top left-learning content creators on TikTok have posted anti-Biden content in the first four months of 2024. Those posts have gained over 100 million views.
- Most of the anti-Biden content is being created by young, non-White liberals who have a “shared ideology that the U.S. Government, and specifically Joe Biden, want to stop the flow of free speech and information
Anyplace, anytime In 2016, Trump broke through political orthodoxy with an ‘anyplace, anytime’ mentality that saw him dominate cable TV airwaves. In 2024, he’s adapted that mentality to new media—appearing on podcasts and YouTube shows, attending live events like UFC and Formula 1, and making campaign stops at bodegas, firehouses, and in the South Bronx.
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