New election data shows independent voters breaking for former President Donald J. Trump after the 81-year-old incumbent Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27—and the subsequent calls by leading Democrats that he drop out of the 2024 presidential race. The polling by Emerson College shows Trump leading among independents with 42 percent of the vote, compared to Biden’s 38 percent. This is an inversion from last month when Biden led 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.
In addition, Biden‘s impaired debate performance appears to be dampening Democrat enthusiasm ahead of November’s election. Nearly 80 percent of Republican respondents said they were extremely motivated to vote. Meanwhile, just 65 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independent voters said the same.
The Emerson poll is one of the most stark data points showing the impact that Biden‘s public display of cognitive impairment has had on his campaign. In the wake of the June 27 debate, several leading Democratic lawmakers have pushed for Biden to step aside, ostensibly making Kamala Harris the nominee. However, the data shows former President Trump handily defeating Harris with 49 percent of the vote to the Vice President’s 43 percent.
In fact, should the Democrats force Biden out of the race, none of his potential replacements fare as well as the octogenarian Democrat, who currently trails Trump by three points. Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in a rematch 48 percent to 41 percent. Meanwhile, Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) only musters 40 percent to Trump’s 48 percent. Likewise, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer— floated among top Democrats as their preferred choice to replace Biden—would go down in defeat to Trump by a 10-point margin.
