The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to issue a major revision to employment numbers on Wednesday. The agency is set to announce its preliminary benchmark revision to the 2024 establishment survey.
Some preliminary estimates and indicators suggest the agency could announce a downward revision of around one million jobs between April 2023 and March 2024.
A downward revision of the one million jobs would suggest that the U.S. job market and economy are far weaker than the corporate media and Biden-Harris government has let on. Further, the revision will likely fuel additional concerns that the BLS and other agencies under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have essentially ‘cooked the books’ to the ultimate detriment of the American people.
Such dramatic revisions are rare but not unprecedented. Earlier this year, the nonpartisan California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) released data showing that all of the state’s reported job gains were, in fact, unrealized. While the state had reported significant job gains throughout the year, the LAO data revealed that the early benchmarks used to estimate job numbers in the state skewed the data in too positive a direction.
The National Pulse reported earlier this month that the July jobs report fell significantly short of estimates, though an unexpected jump in the national unemployment rate may be the more significant data point.
July’s unemployment spike suggests to some economists that the U.S. has entered a recession based on the Sahm Rule, named for a former Federal Reserve economist. The rule dictates a recession is underway if the unemployment rate—based on a three-month moving average—jumps by half a percent from its low in the past year.