State-level election data produced by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union suggests a significant working-class backlash against the 2024 Democratic Party’s presidential ticket after Joe Biden was forced to drop his re-election bid in July.
The Teamsters’ surveys show a decisive shift among their union members from supporting Biden to supporting former President Donald J. Trump after the 81-year-old Democrat incumbent was replaced by his vice president, Kamala Harris, as the party’s nominee. The Teamsters have declined to endorse either Harris or Trump.
Among eight battleground states, the Teamsters data suggests major double-digit swings among their membership in support of Trump. The swing from Biden to Trump in Wisconsin is a near-75 points. Biden led among Teamsters in the state with 73.5 percent to Trump’s 15.3. However, after Kamala Harris replaced the octogenarian Democrat, the vote drastically shifted. Trump now leads the current Democratic Party nominee with 57 percent to Harris’ 40.5 percent.
Among the eight states polled, Wisconsin saw the most significant swing in favor of Trump. However, the other battleground states show substantial movement among the union’s voters toward the Republican nominee as well. There has been a 43-point swing in Arizona, with Trump now leading at 57.3 percent to Harris’ 38.7 percent. Michigan has seen a 53-point swing, where Trump leads among Teamsters with 61.7 percent to Harris’ 35.2.
Meanwhile, states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada, and Minnesota all see between a 29-point and 44-point swing to Trump. In North Carolina, the former president leads Harris with 69.1 percent of Teamsters to the latter’s 29.2 percent.
The union member survey data implies Harris may suffer a similar weakness in support among working-class voters as Hillary Clinton, which largely contributed to the latter’s historic defeat in the 2016 election.
🚨 2024 ELECTION ALERT🚨
While Teamsters is neutral, and national Teamsters polls swung around 32 points towards Trump after Biden dropped out, the battleground Teamsters are FAR WORSE for Harris.
Arizona (43 point swing)
🔵Biden: 54.4% (+24.6)
🟥Trump: 29.8%🟥 Trump: 57.3%…
— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) September 23, 2024