Nate Silver, known for his analytical work at FiveThirtyEight, predicts a victory for former President Donald J. Trump in November. In a piece published in the New York Times on Wednesday, Silver writes, “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast… Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’ So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump.”
Silver believes his gut feeling may resonate with “many anxious Democrats.” Previously, Democrat pollsters have expressed fear that Trump’s support is being significantly undercounted, as it was in 2016 and 2020, which would turn tight margins between Trump and Harris into comfortable leads for the America First leader.
“What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in ’20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters,” said pollster Celinda Lake in September.
Silver is skeptical that there are “shy Trump voters” who mislead pollsters but believes there may be merit to the idea that the former president’s supporters have a “nonresponse bias.” They “often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization,” he observes.
On his election prediction more broadly, Silver cautions people against placing too much credence on his instinct or anyone else’s. He emphasizes, “A 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50.”
