AtlasIntel, considered the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential election, has released its final voter survey of the seven critical battleground states. While the electorate could certainly have shifted from the 2020 presidential contest—and no U.S. election is the same—the data suggests President Donald J. Trump holds leads in all but one of the seven states, which would result in a significant Electoral College victory.
According to the data, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by 4.2 points. Meanwhile, he leads Harris in North Carolina by 3.7 points and in Nevada by 3.6 points. The presidential race is closer in the remaining battleground states, with Trump leading Harris by 2.3 points in Georgia. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump leads Harris by just 1.5 and 0.6 points, respectively. And in Wisconsin, the America First leader narrowly trails his Democratic Party opponent by a razor-thin 0.2 points.
📊ATLAS POLLS – SWING STATES
Harris leads in only one of the 7 decisive swing states for the Electoral College outcome: Wisconsin. Trump's advantage over his opponent is most significant in states such as AZ, NV and NC. The race is tight in the Rust Belt swing states. pic.twitter.com/H0AqUuraoL
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
While the AtlasIntel survey suggests the electoral momentum continues to move in Trump’s direction, the narrow margins remain concerning for Republicans. Trump and Harris are well within the margin of error outside Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. In recent weeks, a majority of polls have shown the race tightening and beginning to lean in Trump’s direction. However, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee has not broken through entirely and put distance between himself and Harris.
It is unclear if recent polling has captured any movement among voters related to President Joe Biden’s Tuesday remarks during a Harris campaign event where he called tens of millions of Trump supporters “garbage.” Meanwhile, in another Harris campaign gaffe on Thursday, billionaire Harris donor and campaign surrogate Mark Cuban insinuated that women who back Trump are weak and dumb.