Election data guru and statistician Nate Silver—the founder of FiveThirtyEight—is accusing major public pollsters of “herding” their survey results to keep President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within a point or two of each other in the 2024 presidential race. According to Silver, it is statistically irregular for a single pollster to consistently show back-and-forth point leads between candidates, which suggests to him that the public polling firms are manipulating their results.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver says on the latest episode of his podcast. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f**king herding! You’re cheating!”
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“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver adds.
One pollster who especially drew Silver’s ire is Emerson College, which he suspects of herding most of their final run of polls. He vented, “You are lying! You’re putting your f**king finger on the scale!”
“Herding” is when a pollster uses their own and others’ prior polls to model or inform their current surveys—artificially creating a tighter contest than what the reality may be.
Currently, Silver’s own model has Trump at just over a 55 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is at 44.2 percent odds of victory.
Additionally, Silver appears to believe there is an increasing chance of a split in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ for Democrats—which includes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Pennsylvania falls to Trump and the Republican nominee sweeps the Sun Belt states, it is almost certain he will win the election.
❓WHAT HAPPENED: A German right-wing activist, Naomi Seibt, is seeking asylum in the United States, marking what she claims is a first under President Donald J. Trump.
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👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Naomi Seibt, U.S. Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Antifa, and German intelligence agencies.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Seibt announced her asylum claim on her X account on October 30.
💬KEY QUOTE: “Today, I am officially the first German asylum seeker in the U.S. under President Trump.” – Naomi Seibt
🎯IMPACT: Seibt’s case highlights concerns over political persecution in Germany and raises questions about freedom of speech and government overreach.
IN FULL
Naomi Seibt, a 25-year-old German right-wing activist, previously dubbed the “anti-Greta Thunberg,” has applied for asylum in the United States. She announced the move on her X account, posting a picture of herself wearing a red “Make America Great Again” hat with the caption: “Today, I am officially the first German asylum seeker in the U.S. under President Trump.”
Seibt, known for her support of the populist, anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, said she fled her home country out of fear for her safety. She said she had received multiple death threats from Antifa members, which police refused to meaningfully investigate, and that she was under surveillance by German intelligence agencies. “It starts with Antifa, which is stronger in Germany than it is anywhere else in the world… I have received many death threats from Antifa,” she said in an interview.
U.S. Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican from Florida, voiced her support for Seibt’s asylum claim. Writing on X, Luna said, “I will be personally assisting with her case and writing to the Secretary of State [Marco Rubio] regarding what she is facing as well as the German Government’s prosecution of its own citizens for fighting [W]estern ideology and their culture.” She also criticized Berlin’s approach to political dissent, stating, “The very same German government that claims to fight Nazism is becoming… like the secret police.”
Seibt has long described herself as a defender of free speech and conservative values. She expressed admiration for what she called American patriotism and argued that the AfD is the only party in Germany promoting similar ideals. “The AfD is not against immigration at all, we just want immigration that goes through strict and rigorous controls,” she said. She characterized the AfD as a libertarian-conservative movement aiming to “restore patriotism” rather than a nationalist or imperialist one. Seibt has used her online following to highlight political persecution in Germany and to campaign for tighter immigration and greater freedom of expression.
Her case comes amid a significant shift in U.S. refugee policy under President Donald J. Trump. The administration recently cut the refugee admissions cap to just 7,500 for the next fiscal year, the lowest in American history, while prioritizing white South African applicants, particularly Afrikaners, who face discrimination in their home country. Leftist organizations, including the Episcopal Church, have criticized the policy and suspended participation in federal resettlement programs, because the refugees are white.
President Trump is also reportedly considering allowing Europeans facing censorship for expressing anti-mass migration and conservative views to claim asylum, with Vice President J.D. Vance having warned against the erosion of free speech in Britain and the European Union (EU) multiple times.
This photo was taken exactly one year ago. Today, I am officially the first German asylum seeker in the U.S under President Trump.
❓WHAT HAPPENED: Thousands of flights across the United States have been delayed or canceled due to severe weather and staffing shortages caused by the ongoing Senate Democrats’ government shutdown.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air traffic controllers, airlines, and passengers.
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📍WHEN & WHERE: Delays and cancellations began escalating in October 2025, impacting major U.S. airports like Orlando, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Washington, D.C., with ripple effects across the East Coast and California.
🎯IMPACT: Passengers have faced significant disruptions, with cascading delays and grounded flights affecting travel plans nationwide and internationally.
IN FULL
The Senate Democrats’ government shutdown unleashed further travel chaos on Friday, with airports across the United States experiencing widespread delays and cancellations. As of 9 AM ET, FlightAware reported 787 delayed flights and 242 cancellations—likely setting off additional disruptions throughout the day.
On Thursday, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported that 7,250 flights were delayed and 1,249 were canceled nationwide. Airports in Orlando, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Washington, D.C. were particularly impacted by shortages of air traffic controllers, many of whom have been working without pay since the shutdown began on October 1.
The FAA’s Command Center has indicated that weather also remains a significant factor, with storms moving across the Northeast and expected to linger into Friday. Delays at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport reached up to 30 minutes, while Newark International Airport reported 15-minute departure delays. Ground stop and delay programs are anticipated at several East Coast and California airports.
In Canada, similar issues have arisen, with tower closures at Kelowna and Winnipeg airports due to staffing shortages. Tim Perry, President of the Canadian branch of the Air Line Pilots Association, stated, “This lack of stability in Canada’s aviation sector must be addressed.”
The disruptions have left thousands of passengers stranded, particularly in Orlando, where the FAA announced that no certified controllers would be available for a period of time, preventing landings at Orlando Airport. The ripple effects of these delays and cancellations are expected to continue throughout the day.
❓WHAT HAPPENED: War Secretary Pete Hegseth has extended the deployment of the National Guard in Washington, D.C., through February.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: War Secretary Pete Hegseth, National Guardsmen from multiple states, and federal agencies including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
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📍WHEN & WHERE: The deployment began in August and will now continue through February in Washington, D.C.
💬KEY QUOTE: “They are patrolling communities, deterring crime, and providing vital assistance to the citizens and visitors of the District of Columbia.” – Army official
🎯IMPACT: The deployment aims to address D.C.’s violent crime crisis and provide federal support to local law enforcement efforts.
IN FULL
Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth has moved to extend the deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., through February. The deployment of more than 2,000 National Guardsmen was initially set to expire at the end of November.
An Army official explained that the Guardsmen “are patrolling communities, deterring crime, and providing vital assistance to the citizens and visitors of the District of Columbia.” The Guard has been present in D.C. since August, following President Donald J. Trump’s decision to mobilize about 800 members and place the city’s police department under federal control.
President Trump declared a public emergency over the city’s violent crime crisis and directed Hegseth to deploy the Guard. Federal agencies, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), were also sent to assist in addressing crime and illegal immigration.
Currently, there are 2,389 National Guardsmen stationed in Washington, D.C., with 960 from the District itself and 1,427 from Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia, according to the Joint Task Force—D.C.
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❓WHAT HAPPENED: The United States has deployed the USS Iwo Jima and USS Gravely near Venezuela, intensifying its naval presence in the Caribbean, with potential strikes against the Maduro regime expected to begin in a matter of days.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The U.S. military, including the Pentagon, President Donald J. Trump, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and U.S. Senator Rick Scott (R-FL).
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📍WHEN & WHERE: The deployment follows recent U.S. airstrikes and was observed near Grenada, with vessels now stationed 124 miles from Venezuela’s La Orchila Island.
💬KEY QUOTE: “If I was Maduro, I’d head to Russia or China right now.” — Senator Rick Scott
🎯IMPACT: The deployment signals Washington’s readiness for potential strikes or broader operations, escalating tensions with Venezuela.
IN FULL
The United States continues building up naval assets near Venezuela. Recent satellite images show the USS Iwo Jima—a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship—and the USS Gravely—an Arleigh Burke-class (Flight IIA) Aegis guided missile destroyer—moving into strike range of the South American narco state. The move comes as the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group is expected to soon enter the Caribbean, significantly amplifying U.S. military capabilities in the region.
The U.S. has escalated strikes on cartel-operated drug boats, with observers now anticipating a new phase against the narco organizations and the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. According to new reports, the U.S. military will soon begin strikes against Venezuelan military installations, which serve as operational bases for the Maduro-tied Soles drug cartel. It is believed that strikes could start in a matter of days—likely signaling the arrival of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier, the largest warship ever built.
Images by the ESA’s Sentinel-2 satellites show the USS Iwo Jima and her Arleigh Burke-class destroyer escort heading westward after being spotted off the coast of Grenada over the past few days. The warships are now approximately 124 miles from Venezuela’s La Orchila Island—home to one of the country’s key airbases and radar facilities. Their approach places them within immediate operational range for amphibious or precision strike missions, intensifying pressure on Caracas as regional tensions climb.
Potential airstrikes against the Venezuelan mainland will likely come in several waves, with F-35s launched from both Puerto Rico and the USS Ford‘s flight deck. Additionally, unknown assets out of Curaçao—an island about 40 miles off the coast of Venezuela—will also likely be involved. Several U.S. military flights have been used to deploy an unknown contingent to the island in recent weeks.
At the heart of this deployment, the USS Iwo Jima carries more than 1,600 Marines from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (SOC). Embarked with the amphibious transport docks USS San Antonio and USS Fort Lauderdale, the group brings advanced aircraft including AV-8B Harriers, AH-1Z Vipers, and MV-22 Ospreys. These assets enable amphibious assaults, precision raids, and rapid response operations across the Caribbean theater.
The U.S. military has now deployed more than 10,000 personnel across the Caribbean, with additional assets such as Carrier Air Wing 8 aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford and six Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, including the Gravely, armed with Tomahawk missiles. U.S. Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) said earlier this week, “If I was Maduro, I’d head to Russia or China right now.”
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❓WHAT HAPPENED: SpaceX is set to receive $2 billion for developing satellites for the Golden Dome project.
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👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: SpaceX, President Donald J. Trump, and Elon Musk.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The report surfaced on October 31, 2025, following a bill signed in July 2025.
🎯IMPACT: SpaceX’s involvement in U.S. defense is expected to grow, potentially reviving its relationship with President Trump.
IN FULL
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is reportedly set to receive $2 billion from the U.S. government to develop satellites for the Golden Dome project, aimed at tracking missiles and aircraft. This funding, part of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act signed by President Trump in July, was not initially linked to any specific contractor, with SpaceX only recently believed to have won the contract.
The Golden Dome project, announced by Trump in May 2025, is a proposed missile defense system that combines space-based sensors with ground-based radars and missiles. The project has a budget of $175 billion and could eventually include up to 600 satellites.
SpaceX is also expected to contribute significantly to two other Pentagon satellite projects: Milnet, for military communications, and another network for tracking ground vehicles. Other companies, such as Anduril Industries and traditional defense contractors, have also proposed technologies for the initiative.
The National Pulse reported in April that Musk’s SpaceX was a leading candidate to win the Golden Dome contract, at least in terms of developing the satellite infrastructure. Other contractors likely to be involved include Palantir and Anduril. SpaceX, valued at $400 billion, has already launched over 10,000 satellites for its Starlink service, demonstrating its capability in satellite deployment.
SpaceX’s contract also suggests that Musk and President Trump have likely mended fences after the two had a falling out earlier this year.
💬KEY QUOTE: “It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” – President Trump
🎯IMPACT: Trump’s call renews debate over the filibuster as a method to resolve the ongoing government shutdown.
IN FULL
President Donald J. Trump has urged Senate Republicans to use the so-called “nuclear option” to end the filibuster, circumventing Senate Democrats and funding the government. The House has already passed a temporary funding bill, but the Senate has failed to reach the 60-vote threshold to advance the legislation due to Democrats withholding their votes. The shutdown has now reached its 31st day, nearing a record.
Trump called for Republicans to use the “Nuclear Option” and eliminate the filibuster. “It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW! Just a short while ago, the Democrats, while in power, fought for three years to do this, but were unable to pull it off because of Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He argued that Democrats would end the filibuster if they were in power and that Republicans should act now while they have the chance.
“The one question that kept coming up, however, was how did the Democrats SHUT DOWN the United States of America, and why did the powerful Republicans allow them to do it? The fact is, in flying back, I thought a great deal about that question, WHY?” Trump wrote.
The America First leader continued: “Well, now WE are in power, and if we did what we should be doing, it would IMMEDIATELY end this ridiculous, Country destroying ‘SHUT DOWN.’ If the Democrats ever came back into power, which would be made easier for them if the Republicans are not using the Great Strength and Policies made available to us by ending the Filibuster, the Democrats will exercise their rights, and it will be done in the first day they take office, regardless of whether or not we do it.”
Trump added: “BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE GONE STONE COLD ‘CRAZY,’ THE CHOICE IS CLEAR — INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The National Pulse has previously reported that Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and John Fetterman (D-PA) have backed a push to end the filibuster. However, some longtime Capitol Hill observers warn that Republicans moving to end the filibuster may actually be the outcome Democrats desire most. After it emerged that Senate Democrats remain mostly unified in opposition to reopening the government, Liam Donovan—a former congressional staffer and executive with consulting firm Targeted Victory—argues: “They want Rs to nuke. They’d settle for a price. But that’s what this is meant to signal—nuke it, we’re not budging.”
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❓WHAT HAPPENED: The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) disrupted a potential terrorist attack planned for Halloween weekend in Michigan.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: FBI agents, multiple suspects, and local law enforcement in Michigan.
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📍WHEN & WHERE: Operations took place Friday morning in Dearborn and Inkster, Michigan.
💬KEY QUOTE: “This morning the FBI thwarted a potential terrorist attack and arrested multiple subjects in Michigan who were allegedly plotting a violent attack over Halloween weekend.” – Kash Patel
🎯IMPACT: Authorities assured the public that there is no current threat to safety, and investigations are ongoing.
IN FULL
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) revealed on Friday morning that it had stopped a possible terrorist plot in Michigan set for Halloween weekend. In a social media update, FBI Director Kash Patel announced, “This morning the FBI thwarted a potential terrorist attack and arrested multiple subjects in Michigan who were allegedly plotting a violent attack over Halloween weekend.”
Patel expressed gratitude to FBI personnel and law enforcement, noting, “More details to come. Thanks to the men and women of FBI and law enforcement everywhere standing guard 24/7 and crushing our mission to defend the homeland.”
Details on the precise timing and site of the intended attack are still unknown. Early Friday, FBI agents carried out operations in Dearborn, a major Islamic population hub, and Inkster, as confirmed by a Detroit FBI spokesman, who added that the public faces no ongoing danger.
Dearborn officials reinforced this in a Facebook statement: “We want to assure our residents that there is no threat to the community at this time. The Dearborn Police Department remains committed to the safety and security of all who live, work, and visit our city.”This remains an evolving situation, with additional information anticipated as the probe progresses.
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❓WHAT HAPPENED: Delta Air Lines has urged Congress to pass a clean continuing resolution to end the Senate Democrats’ government shutdown and ensure air traffic controllers are paid.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Delta Air Lines and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
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📍WHEN & WHERE: The government shutdown began on October 1, 2025; discussions and appeals continue as of late October.
💬KEY QUOTE: “Missed paychecks only increases the stress on these essential workers, many of whom are already working mandatory overtime to keep our skies safe and secure,” Delta said in a statement.
🎯IMPACT: The shutdown is contributing to financial uncertainty for air traffic controllers and TSA officers, while posing risks to the National Airspace System.
IN FULL
Delta Air Lines has called on Congress to “immediately pass a clean continuing resolution” to end the ongoing Democrat-initiated government shutdown and ensure air traffic controllers are paid. The airline’s statement comes as the shutdown enters its fourth week, leaving essential workers without paychecks.
“Missed paychecks only increases the stress on these essential workers, many of whom are already working mandatory overtime to keep our skies safe and secure,” Delta said on Thursday. Delta CEO Ed Bastian previously warned that a prolonged shutdown could negatively affect the airline’s operations.
Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, highlighted the risks posed by the shutdown, citing a staffing shortage of 3,800 controllers below the FAA’s target. “Every day the shutdown continues, the National Airspace System becomes less safe than it was the day before,” Daniels wrote earlier this week.
Air traffic controllers and TSA officers, deemed essential employees, are required to work during the shutdown without receiving regular paychecks. However, absences among essential employees often spike during shutdowns.
The National Pulse reported on Monday that approximately 2,800 flights were delayed, and 109 flights were canceled across the United States due to air traffic controller shortages stemming from the shutdown. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that a four-week shutdown could cost the economy $7 billion, with even greater losses projected if the impasse continues.
❓WHAT HAPPENED: President Donald J. Trump set the refugee admissions ceiling at 7,500 for fiscal year 2026, the lowest cap on record.
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👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Trump, Afrikaners in South Africa, and U.S. government officials.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Determination dated September 30, announced in Washington, D.C.
🎯IMPACT: This decision shifts U.S. refugee policy, focusing on Afrikaners and potentially others, while slashing the annual refugee cap.
IN FULL
President Donald J. Trump has set the refugee admissions ceiling for the 2026 fiscal year at 7,500, the lowest limit in U.S. history. The presidential determination, dated September 30, focuses on admitting South African Afrikaners, a white ethnic minority, citing persecution in their home country. The previous cap, set by former President Joe Biden, was 125,000.
When Trump returned to office in January, he immediately paused all refugee admissions, saying the program would resume only if it served “the best interest of the United States.” The administration soon began prioritizing Afrikaners for resettlement, though only 138 South Africans had been admitted by early September, according to official data. The new refugee plan also extends consideration to “other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands.” A leaked internal memo from April suggested that Europeans facing discrimination for opposing mass migration or supporting populist parties could also qualify.
The new refugee limits come amid a broader tightening of immigration enforcement. Southern border crossings have dropped to their lowest level in 55 years, with around 237,000 apprehensions reported this fiscal year, a decline of more than 80 percent. At the U.S.-Canada border, illegal crossings have fallen by roughly 95 percent following a major security crackdown earlier in 2025.
Meanwhile, deportations have accelerated. Federal immigration authorities report that the United States is on track to reach roughly 600,000 removals by the end of the year. Since January 2025, more than half a million illegal immigrants have been deported, and officials say voluntary departures have also risen sharply.
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❓WHAT HAPPENED: Federal charges were filed against 19 people for operating an open-air drug market in Washington Square Park, Manhattan.
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👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The defendants include Maliek Lugg, John Livigni, and Curtis Miller, among others, with involvement from the Bloods gang.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The charges were unsealed on October 30, 2025, and relate to criminality in Manhattan’s Washington Square Park.
💬KEY QUOTE: “The defendants are aware that their drugs cause overdoses, including in and around the Washington Square Park Area.” – Federal indictment
🎯IMPACT: The federal raid brings to an end the illegal drug operation that led to multiple overdoses, including two deaths last year, with the defendants having been collectively arrested over 80 times prior.
IN FULL
Nineteen people have been federally charged for allegedly operating a blatant, open-air drug market in Manhattan‘s Washington Square Park, dealing fentanyl, heroin, and crack cocaine. This operation has been linked to two deaths in the previous year, including an 18-year-old from Aspen, Colorado, and a 43-year-old homeless person living in the park.
Court documents reveal that the defendants were aware of the overdoses caused by their drugs, yet continued their extensive sales in the area. The sophisticated drug network, involving Bloods gang members, has collectively faced over 80 drug-related charges in the past five years.
Despite previous incarcerations, the drug dealers reportedly resumed their activities upon release. The operation was structured with agreements not to sell in each other’s territories, using different colored bags to distinguish their products.
The first death occurred in June last year when a teenager from Colorado, in New York for a summer internship, overdosed after purchasing drugs. His body was found with a purple bag of drugs. Later, a homeless man’s body was discovered with empty bags linked to dealer John Livigni and the Bloods gang.
Those charged face conspiracy to distribute narcotics resulting in death charges. The indictment includes John Livigni, Curtis Miller, and others involved in the network.
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