An analysis of British political polling that puts Nigel Farage’s Reform Party in first place—with 29 percent support to the governing Labour Party’s 25 percent and the formerly governing Conservative Party’s 18 percent—suggests the populist outfit would fall just 17 seats short of the 326 seats required for a governing majority if an election was held today.
‘Stats for Lefties’ converts the polling into 309 seats for Reform, more than double Labour‘s projected 150. The Conservatives, only projected to win 26 seats, collapse to fifth place behind the Liberal Democrats and the left-separatist Scottish National Party (SNP), which does not even contest constituencies (electoral districts) outside Scotland.
Reform is projected to win the majority of seats in Wales and the North, South, and Midlands of England, with only voters in Scotland and hyper-diverse London, where only around a third of residents are classed as White British, denying Farage’s party an outright majority.
It is conceivable that Farage could strike a deal with the eurosceptic, socially conservative Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland and some of the more right-leaning Conservatives to form a coalition or minority government.
Farage described the polling as “truly astonishing” and urged voters who want to oust Labour not to “waste your vote with the Conservatives.”
‼️NEW | Reform projected to win 300+ seats
🟣 REF 29% (+2)
🔴 LAB 25% (+2)
🔵 CON 18% (-3)
🟠 LD 13% (+2)
🟢 GRN 10% (-)Via @FindoutnowUK, 5 Feb (+/- vs 27 Jan) pic.twitter.com/sarxE59WD8
— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️ (@LeftieStats) February 6, 2025
Image courtesy of Stuart Mitchell, IncMonocle.