PULSE POINTS:
❓What Happened: Statistician and election pollster Nate Silver says he believes that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is a strong contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, if she chooses to run. Silver, who founded the FiveThirtyEight opinion poll analysis website, notes that the progressive New York lawmaker and member of the far-left “Squad” coalition in Congress is polling in a strong position in a potential primary against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and enjoys some of the highest net favorability among Democrats.
👥 Who’s Involved: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Kamala Harris, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
📍 Where & When: Silver made the observation in an April 16 post on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack; the prediction pertains to the Democratic primary in 2028.
💬 Key Quote: “Results! I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first, but Galen won at rock-paper-scissors and chose her first instead,” Silver wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) after hosting a mock 2028 Democratic presidential nomination draft with former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke.
⚠️ Impact: An Ocasio-Cortez presidential candidacy would mark a significant shift leftward for the Democratic Party. The New York Congresswoman has a reputation as an unapologetic progressive with ties to the radical Democratic Socialists of America.
IN FULL:
In a Wednesday discussion about potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election, data analyst and political pollster Nate Silver suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) could emerge as a leading primary contender if she decides to seek the party’s presidential nomination in 2028. Silver and former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke considered the implications of an Ocasio-Cortez candidacy while hosting a mock draft of potential Democratic presidential candidates on the “Silver Bulletin” Substack platform.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said after picking Rep. Ocasio-Cortez as his first choice to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2028, noting: “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.”
“I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support,” Druke explained, adding: “I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin.”
“I agree with everything,” Silver replied, quipping: “That was going to be my f***ing first pick!”
While Silver agreed that Ocasio-Cortez would be a formidable candidate and well-positioned to win the party’s presidential nomination, he conceded that the national political environment could change before the 2028 election and cautioned he wasn’t confident she’s “sure to run.” Druke pushed back, noting the far-left progressive Congresswoman’s “Fighting Oligarchy Tour” with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), which is currently hosting rallies around the country.
Adding to the case that Ocasio-Cortez could win the Democratic Party’s presidential primary, Silver pointed to current election polling showing the Congresswoman with significant support in a hypothetical challenge against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Silver argued that Ocasio-Cortez’s strong polling numbers add credence to the idea that she has broader appeal in the Democratic Party than previously thought, noting, “New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc.”