❓WHAT HAPPENED: A poll from Electoral Calculus projects that Britain’s Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, could come within one seat of an outright parliamentary majority if a General Election were held today.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Nigel Farage, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and the Reform Party, alongside the Starmer’s Labour Party and the formerly governing Conservative (Tory) Party.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Poll conducted between May 30 and June 26, 2023, across the United Kingdom.
💬KEY QUOTE: “I try to make it water off a duck’s back as far as possible. Because otherwise I think you lose any ability to focus and you just spend your whole time worrying about it.” – Keir Starmer
🎯IMPACT: Reform’s surge could lead to a minority government or coalition, displacing Labour and the Conservatives from the premiership for the first time since 1922.
A poll of polls conducted by Electoral Calculus suggests that the populist Reform Party, led by Brexit champion and Donald Trump ally Nigel Farage, would win 325 seats in a General Election, just one seat shy of an outright parliamentary majority. The survey, which included 5,400 participants between May 30 and June 26, places Reform at 29.4 percent of the vote, ahead of the governing Labour Party’s 22.9 percent and the formerly governing Conservatives’ 18.2 percent.
The results indicate the possibility of a minority or coalition government, with potential alliances between Reform and the Conservatives, or Northern Ireland’s pro-Brexit and socially conservative Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This could see Farage entering Number 10 as Prime Minister. The poll highlights significant challenges for Labour and the Conservatives, who have held the premiership ever since David Lloyd George left office in 1922.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Labour’s leader, acknowledged the situation but downplayed the impact of polling. Speaking to the press, he stated, “I try to make it water off a duck’s back as far as possible. Because otherwise I think you lose any ability to focus and you just spend your whole time worrying about it.”
Reform is gaining traction among Gen Z voters, particularly young men, driven by Farage’s strong presence on social media. Starmer’s visibility on platforms like China-linked TikTok, with a large youth audience, remains low, with Labour dedicating a significant portion of its overall social media content to attacking Farage and Reform.
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