❓WHAT HAPPENED: President Donald J. Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is entering the homestretch toward passage in the United States Senate after narrowly clearing a procedural vote this past weekend. Once adopted by the upper chamber, the legislation will face a final vote in the House before heading to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats, and House Republicans.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The Senate vote-a-rama on amendments began Monday, June 30, at 9:00 AM, and a vote on final passage is expected late tonight. The House is expected to vote on adopting the Senate changes on Wednesday, July 2.
🎯IMPACT: While the budget reconciliation bill is entering the homestretch, several hurdles remain, which could derail the legislation or delay its passage beyond July 4—President Trump’s deadline for the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ to land on his desk.
President Donald J. Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill‘ is entering the homestretch toward passage in the United States Senate after narrowly clearing a procedural vote this past weekend. The budget reconciliation bill, which enacts much of Trump’s domestic policy agenda, sat in limbo for several hours on Saturday as Senate Republican leadership and Vice President J.D. Vance worked to hammer out last-minute compromises to attain the 51 votes on a motion to proceed. Notably, Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Rand Paul (R-KY) both voted with Democrats against the measure. At the same time, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) eventually switched his vote from “No” after protracted talks with Vance and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), giving the bill the support it needed to clear the procedural hurdle.
Typically, after legislation clears the “motion to proceed” hurdle, the Senate swiftly moves to debate and amendments. However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) used a procedural motion to force the entire 900-page-plus bill to be read aloud by the Senate clerk, which—along with the Democrats’ 10 hours of debate time—took up much of Sunday.
As of 9:00 AM on Monday, the Senate had finally moved to the amendment phase before a vote on final passage. Under usual circumstances, the “vote-a-rama” is a highly orchestrated process tightly controlled by Senate leadership. However, the current vote-a-rama is being described as a far more “fluid” process with a number of key compromises and amendments enacting significant changes expected to be brought to the floor. Each amendment receives a 10-minute voting period. Should any of the compromise amendments or other modifications fail, it could erode support for President Trump’s signature legislation—as it only cleared the “motion to proceed” by a single vote.
Sens. Tillis and Paul appear poised to vote with Senate Democrats against the bill once again. However, the Republican duo may be joined by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who has indicated that while she supported the “motion to proceed,” she remains undecided on voting for passage. Concerningly, the combination of Tillis, Paul, and Collins would leave the Senate evenly split on the legislation, meaning Vice President Vance would be required to break the tie. Should the adoption or rejection of an amendment alienate any other Republican vote, Senate Republicans could face the very real possibility of losing majority support for the legislation. Barring any erosion in Republican support, the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ should see a vote on final passage late this evening—possibly as late as midnight.
Once adopted by the Senate, the budget reconciliation legislation will return to the House of Representatives, which will need to vote on it again to adopt the changes made to its text in the Senate. A notice from House Republican leadership, issued late Sunday, recalled lawmakers to Washington, D.C. for an expected vote on Wednesday, with Tuesday being reserved for the bill’s reading. Here again, the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ could face headwinds if members of the House Freedom Caucus or the New York Republican delegation balk at the Senate changes. However, lawmakers will likely be under intense pressure from the Trump White House to drop any opposition and back the bill.
President Trump has repeatedly stated that he expected the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ to clear Congress and be on his desk by July 4 for his signature. Barring any significant conflicts in the Senate today or in the House on Wednesday, the bill should land on Trump’s desk with about 24 hours to spare before the July 4 holiday.
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