❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll from the Manhattan Institute shows Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading both Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical New York gubernatorial matchup.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Elise Stefanik, Kathy Hochul, Anthony Delgado, and the Manhattan Institute.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Poll conducted October 22-26, 2025, surveying New York voters.

💬KEY QUOTE: “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” – Bernadette Breslin, spokesman for Elise Stefanik.

🎯IMPACT: The poll suggests Republicans could make the New York gubernatorial race competitive for the first time in decades, though forecasters still classify the race as Likely Democratic.

Republicans may have a rare opportunity to win the New York gubernatorial office, according to a new poll from the Manhattan Institute. The survey found Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) by one point (43 percent to 42 percent) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) by six points (43 percent to 37 percent). The poll, which surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters from October 22 to October 26, 2025, had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

Stefanik, a northern New York congresswoman and prominent supporter of President Donald J. Trump, has not officially announced her candidacy but is seen as a strong contender for Republicans. Hochul, on the other hand, is seeking reelection after a narrower-than-expected victory in 2022. She is also facing a primary challenge from Delgado, though polling suggests she maintains an advantage among Democratic voters.

Other recent polls have shown varying results. A Siena College poll conducted in early September 2025 showed Hochul with a 25-point lead over Stefanik, while a GrayHouse poll found Hochul leading initially but Stefanik gaining ground after voters were presented with additional information about the candidates. Both polls suggest that the race could tighten as the election approaches.

Bernadette Breslin, a spokesman for Stefanik, highlighted the significance of the Manhattan Institute poll, stating, “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” Breslin also criticized Hochul for her policies, calling her “the Worst Governor in America” and accusing her of putting New Yorkers last.

The increasingly likely election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor of New York City could have a significant impact on the 2026 gubernatorial race. Hochul threw her support behind the far-left Mamdani in September, despite concerns among Democratic leaders over the mayoral candidate’s extreme policy proposals. The National Pulse previously reported that Mamdani has pushed plans for an additional $100 million in taxpayer funds to provide legal defense for illegal immigrants facing deportation, advocated for “the abolition of private property,” proposed socialist city-owned grocery stores, and detailed a controversial plan to “[s]hift the tax burden from overtaxed homeowners in the outer boroughs to more expensive homes in richer and whiter neighborhoods.”

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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