❓WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin bulls made another attempt to break a key resistance level, potentially setting the stage for a rally to $140,000.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Bitcoin traders, crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, and market strategist Marc Chandler.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Early Asian trading hours, with market data expected Tuesday.
🎯IMPACT: A successful hold above the resistance level could push Bitcoin toward $140,000, while failure may lead to a deeper correction.
Bitcoin traders are once again testing a crucial resistance level tied to the 1.618 percent Fibonacci extension, derived from the bear market lows of 2018 and 2022. This is the second time in recent weeks that bulls have attempted to breach this technical barrier. The first attempt failed last month, triggering a drop in Bitcoin’s price below $112,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $122,000, having reached an intraday high of $122,171 during early Asian trading hours.
The Fibonacci extension is a key level used in technical analysis to project potential price targets or profit-taking levels. This level is often associated with the “golden ratio” and is closely watched by market participants for potential trend shifts. In the numerical series, as you progress further into the sequence, the ratio between consecutive numbers approaches 1.618, also known as the golden ratio or phi.
Should Bitcoin successfully maintain levels above this resistance, it may set the stage for a rally toward $140,000. That level is psychologically significant and aligns with a popular strike price on the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, where more than $3 billion in notional open interest is currently concentrated. However, failure to hold above the current resistance could suggest weakening bullish momentum and potentially lead to a deeper correction.
Upcoming U.S. inflation data, expected on Tuesday, could also impact market sentiment. Economists are forecasting a 0.3 percent increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, following a 0.2 percent rise in June. While an upside surprise could stir short-term volatility, analysts believe it’s unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s leaning toward a rate cut in September.
Additionally, the softer-than-expected July jobs report has already shifted expectations toward a potential Fed rate cut, an outcome that could support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Most prediction markets are now projecting high odds of at least a 25-basis-point cut next month.
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