❓WHAT HAPPENED: The United States is projected to experience its first-ever population decline due to a significant drop in immigration numbers.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), President Donald J. Trump, and the U.S. State Department.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Forecasts for 2025, across the United States.
🎯IMPACT: A potential population decrease of 6,000 people, with a 96 percent drop in net immigration at the low end of predictions.
The United States could see its population shrink for the first time in history, as new forecasts predict a dramatic drop in immigration numbers. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) has projected that net international immigration could fall to as low as negative 525,000 in 2025. With a net of 519,000 births reported in last year’s Census, this would result in a population decrease of 6,000 people.
The AEI forecast suggests net immigration could plummet from 2.8 million to between 115,000 and negative 525,000, marking a 96 percent decline at the low end of predictions. Notably, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has reported that 1.6 million illegal immigrants have voluntarily left the U.S. since President Donald J. Trump returned to the White House. Additionally, DHS figures reveal that over 359,000 illegal immigrants have been arrested, and 332,000 deported, within the first 200 days of the new administration.
The U.S. State Department has also implemented a new policy subjecting visa holders to “continuous vetting.” This includes reviewing the records of 55 million foreigners with valid U.S. visas to determine if they have violated any rules. If infractions such as overstaying visas or engaging in criminal activity are discovered, visas may be revoked, potentially leading to deportation. A statement from the department emphasized, “We review all available information as part of our vetting, including law enforcement or immigration records of any other information that comes to light after visa issuance indicating a potential liability.”
The policy shift represents a significant escalation in curbing mass migration and in deportation efforts aimed at removing millions of illegal immigrants who entered the United States under the former Biden government.
President Trump’s administration has also increased restrictions and requirements for visa applicants, including mandatory in-person interviews, in light of new national security and public safety concerns.
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