❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll shows a tight race between Jack Ciattarelli (R) and Mikie Sherrill (D) for New Jersey governor.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Jack Ciattarelli, Republican candidate, and Mikie Sherrill, Democratic candidate.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The poll was released in New Jersey, October 2025.
💬KEY QUOTE: “Voters across the board want a change (76%).” – Quantus Insights Poll
🎯IMPACT: The race is now considered a dead heat, with significant gains by Ciattarelli among Independent voters.
Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is now running neck and neck with Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to a new poll. The Quantus Insights Poll shows Sherrill narrowly leading Ciattarelli 48.1 percent to 45.8 percent among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s error range.
This marks a significant shift from earlier surveys, including a Labor Day poll where Sherrill held a 10-point lead. Ciattarelli’s recent surge is attributed to his strong performance among Independent voters, where he leads 51 percent to 38 percent.
For much of the campaign, Sherrill maintained a comfortable lead over Ciattarelli. However, recent polling has indicated a tightening race, now considered a dead heat. She has been hurt in part by a scandal related to cheating at the U.S. Naval Academy, which saw her barred from walking with her classmates at her graduation.
Sherrill’s advantage has decreased to a 4.7 percentage point lead in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate. Notably, this aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by about five points in the 2021 election.
Joe Biden officially won New Jersey by 16 points in 2020, but by only six points in 2024—one of the biggest improvements for President Donald J. Trump nationwide.
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