❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new MRP poll conducted by Electoral Calculus for PLMR has revealed significant shifts in voter preferences in the United Kingdom, with Nigel Farage’s Reform Party leading at 36 percent.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Electoral Calculus, PLMR, and polling participants totaling over 7,400 people.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Fieldwork took place online from September 10-18, 2025, across Great Britain.
💬KEY QUOTE: “This poll shows a remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party, and exposes where voter priorities lie.” – Kevin Craig
🎯IMPACT: Reform is projected to secure 367 seats, potentially forming a majority government, while the governing Labour Party and the formerly governing Conservatives (Tories) face significant losses.
Electoral Calculus, commissioned by PLMR, has released an MRP poll forecasting a significant political shift in the United Kingdom. The poll positions Nigel Farage’s Reform Party at 36 percent, far ahead of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party at 21 percent, with the Conservatives (Tories) lagging at 15 percent. This would translate to 367 seats for Reform in the House of Commons, securing an 84-seat majority, while Labour would gain 117.
The poll indicates risks for prominent government ministers, who sit in the legislature in the British political system, with Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting potentially losing their seats, alongside former Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak.
Voter priorities ahead of the Autumn Budget include the cost of living and economy (59 percent), immigration (51 percent), and the socialized National Health Service (45 percent). Preferences differ sharply by party, with Reform voters heavily focused on immigration (90 percent) and Labour voters emphasizing the economy and NHS.
Kevin Craig, PLMR’s founder, stated, “This poll shows a remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party, and exposes where voter priorities lie. The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost, with concerns around immigration and the NHS still present.”
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus noted that “Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform’s poll lead isn’t as good as it looks”—Labour voters could back the left-leaning Liberal Democrats or even the Tories to keep out Reform in certain constituencies (electoral districts)—”but the fragmentation of the left-of-centre vote could make things easier for Reform UK.”
Conducted online with over 7,400 respondents, the poll used Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) techniques, weighted to reflect the population.
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