❓WHAT HAPPENED: The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty, is set to expire on February 5, 2026, leaving no formal limits on nuclear arsenals.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The United States, Russia, and experts such as Dr. Jim Walsh and John Erath have weighed in on the implications of the treaty’s expiration.
📍WHEN & WHERE: The treaty will expire on February 5, 2026, with discussions spanning Washington, Moscow, and international forums.
💬KEY QUOTE: “There’ll be a turn of events a month from now, a year from now, five years from now. Things always happen in international affairs. There’ll be a war, there’ll be a crisis.” – Dr. Jim Walsh
🎯IMPACT: Experts warn that the expiration could lead to a renewed arms race and the erosion of decades of nuclear stability.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed with Russia in 2010, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. New START limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads each, has been a critical mechanism for maintaining nuclear stability between the two nations. Its expiration will mark the first time since the Cold War that no formal limits will exist on their nuclear arsenals.
Nuclear arms control experts caution that while the expiration of New START may not set off an immediate nuclear expansion by either the United States or Russia, it could set off a long-term chain reaction. “There’ll be a turn of events a month from now, a year from now, five years from now,” contends Dr. Jim Walsh, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) Security Studies Program (SSP). “Things always happen in international affairs. There’ll be a war, there’ll be a crisis,” he continued, adding that such incidents could set off a new arms race.
While a number of past arms control agreements had indefinite extension provisions, New START allowed only one extension, which was exercised in 2021 under former President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Donald J. Trump had indicated he would let the treaty expire, stating, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement.”
Russia currently holds the largest confirmed nuclear arsenal, with over 5,500 warheads, followed closely by the United States with approximately 5,044. Together, the two nations account for nearly 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Join Pulse+ to comment below, and receive exclusive e-mail analyses.
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
