❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) leading Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Lone Star State’s Republican Senate runoff, with many former supporters of Representative Wesley Hunt (R-TX) now backing Paxton.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt, and Texas Republican voters.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Poll results were reported on Tuesday; the runoff election is scheduled for May 26 in Texas.
💬KEY QUOTE: The runoff electorate is “largely settled, highly certain to vote, and not especially movable,” according to the Quantus Insights report.
🎯IMPACT: Paxton’s lead, voter certainty, and favorability ratings suggest he enters the runoff with a significant advantage.
New data released on Tuesday shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) leading Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) 48.8 percent to 41.3 percent, with 9.9 percent undecided, ahead of the May 26 primary runoff race. The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights, also revealed that nearly 58 percent of Representative Wesley Hunt’s (R-TX) supporters have shifted to Paxton, indicating there is a consolidation of anti-Cornyn voters.
Additionally, the survey of Texas voters suggests the electorate has largely become entrenched, with 88.1 percent of respondents certain to vote and 78.7 percent describing their choice as definite. Among Paxton’s supporters, 88 percent said their vote is definite, compared to 86 percent of Cornyn’s supporters. Notably, 92 percent of Paxton voters are certain to vote, compared to 86 percent of Cornyn voters.
Quantus Insights describes the runoff electorate as “largely settled, highly certain to vote, and not especially movable.” Paxton was noted to have “the clearer edge in ballot support, favorability, and perceived effectiveness.” Meanwhile, the potential of a presidential endorsement was also analyzed, with 25.3 percent of respondents saying President Donald J. Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to support Paxton, while 63 percent said it would make no difference. For Cornyn, 18.3 percent said Trump’s endorsement would increase their support, while 70 percent said it would not affect their decision.
Last week, The National Pulse reported that a separate voter poll found Paxton leading Cornyn by a wider margin, 53 percent to 37 percent, among likely Republican runoff voters. This survey also found Paxton with a higher favorability rating (64 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable) compared to Cornyn (45 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable).
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