Reform UK is within just two points of the Conservative Party now that Brexit leader Nigel Farage has returned as its leader. This follows polls showing the party under Farage projected to make an electoral breakthrough and win three seats in Parliament.
A YouGov poll for Comcast’s Sky News puts Reform at 17 percent, just two points away from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s governing Conservative Party and well above the Liberal Democrats at 10 percent.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which has languished in opposition for 14 years, remains far out in front at 40 percent but has dropped six points.
Before Farage returned as leader, Reform was not projected to win any seats despite relatively strong poll numbers. This was due to the British first-past-the-post system, which strongly favors legacy parties such as Labour and the unpopular Liberal Democrats, which has roots going back to 1859, over upstart parties.
OUTFLANKING THE CONSERVATIVES.
Voters are often reluctant to switch to parties like Reform for fear of “wasting” their votes. Still, Farage appears to be on the cusp of achieving a historic shift on the British right, tying with or possibly even overtaking the 190-year-old Conservative Party by outflanking them from the right, particularly on immigration.
Farage has campaigned on immigration for years, braving the scorn of the political establishment and corporate media during the Brexit referendum by rolling out his ‘Breaking Point’ poster campaign, highlighting the devastating impact of the migrant crisis on Europe.
The Brexit leader had previously been urged to join the Conservatives and take over from within. However, he now believes he can take them over “from without” by out-competing them at the ballot box and forcing a merger.
Stephen Harper’s Reform Party achieved a similar feat in Canada, melding with the establishment of the Progressive Conservative Party to become the Conservative Party of Canada, with Harper as leader and, ultimately, Prime Minister.
🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll
🔴 LAB: 40%
🔵 CON: 19%
🟣 REF: 17%
🟠 LDEM: 10%
🟢 GRN: 7%2,144 adults online
3 June -4 June— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 5, 2024