A new survey has revealed that France’s Marine Le Pen is leading all potential opponents in the 2027 French presidential race, reflecting a growing rightward shift across Europe.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Rally (RN) party, is on track to win the 2027 French presidential election, according to a new poll. 📺 DETAIL: According to a survey by Toluna-Harris, a market research firm, Le Pen is projected to win the second round of the 2027 presidential election against all likely opponents. French presidential elections used a two-round run-off system. In the first round, all candidates from all parties are permitted to stand. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the two most popular candidates progress to the run-off ballot, from which all other candidates and parties are barred. The winner of the run-off ballot becomes President. According to the survey, Le Pen is favored over the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (68 percent versus 32 percent). Le Pen is also favored over so-called centrists Édouard Philippe (55 percent versus 45 percent) and Gabriel Attal (57 percent versus 43 percent). The same survey revealed that, in the first round, Le Pen is projected to secure 35 percent of the vote. In contrast, Mélenchon is on 16 percent, Philippe is on 14 percent, and Attal is on eight percent. Glucksmann, a center-left candidate who supports surrendering much more national sovereignty to the European Union (EU), secured ten percent, while the center-right Retailleau secured six percent, and the eco-socialist Tondelier secured three percent. 🎯 IMPACT: A Le Pen victory would represent the first presidential victory for National Rally in the party’s history. The support for Le Pen demonstrates the shift towards populism across Europe, reflecting support for Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, among other examples. The findings show that while the far-left Mélenchon is Le Pen’s primary rival in the first round, a centrist candidate has a better chance of beating her in the second round. 📺 FLASHBACK: These results reflect similar findings published earlier this year. Back in July, a survey conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) showed Le Pen beating Attal (54 percent vs 46 percent), Philippe (55 percent vs 45 percent), and Mélenchon (70 percent vs 30 percent) in the second round. The same survey also showed that Le Pen would receive roughly a third of the vote (36 percent). If she faces a centrist candidate in the second round, the survey projected that Le Pen would unite 50 percent of the right-leaning vote. If up against Mélenchon, Le Pen would unite 90 percent of the right-leaning vote. |
France, Toluna-Harris poll:
Presidential run-off election
Le Pen (RN-PfE): 68% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 32% (-1)Le Pen (RN-PfE): 55% (+3)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 45% (-3)Le Pen (RN-PfE): 57% (+3)
Attal (RE-RE): 43% (-3)+/- vs. 25-27 May 2026
Fieldwork: 18-19 August 2026… pic.twitter.com/vvUtpkIyiR
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) August 24, 2026
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