PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: A new Economist/YouGov poll reveals stark divisions among Americans on whether Kilmar Abrego Garcia, recently deported to El Salvador, should be allowed back into the U.S., with 90 percent of Kamala Harris voters supporting his return—despite uncertainty about his MS-13 ties.

👥 Who’s Involved: Kilmar Abrego Garcia, alleged MS-13 member; U.S. citizens surveyed by The Economist/YouGov; 2024 voters for Harris and Donald J. Trump.

📍 Where & When: The poll was conducted April 19–22, 2025, surveying 1,625 U.S. adults, following Abrego’s deportation.

⚠️ Impact: The poll underscores deep partisan divides on immigration policy, but widespread uncertainty about Abrego’s alleged MS-13 ties—meaning public opinion could shift if they are clearly proven.

IN FULL:

A recent Economist/YouGov poll conducted April 19–22, 2025, has exposed a sharp partisan divide over the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an alleged MS-13 member recently sent back to El Salvador by the Trump administration. The survey of 1,625 U.S. adult citizens asked whether Abrego should be allowed to return to the U.S., revealing that 90 percent of Kamala Harris voters in 2024 support his return. However, a separate question on whether or not respondents believe he is a member of the notorious MS-13 gang, as the Trump administration says, reveals that a plurality of 43 percent are unsure. If they can be convinced, public sentiment may shift in favor of his deportation.

While 50 percent of Americans overall support Abrego’s return—after pollsters primed them with a description of him as having been removed “despite a court order prohibiting his deportation”—an overwhelming 90 percent of Harris voters want him back. In contrast, 59 percent of Trump voters reject his return.

Along party lines, 87 percent of Democrats favor Abrego’s return, while 54 percent of Republicans oppose it. Ideology mirrors this split, with 87 percent of liberals backing his return, compared to 61 percent of conservatives who are against it.

A second question in the poll reveals widespread uncertainty about Abrego’s alleged MS-13 membership, with 43 percent of respondents overall admitting they’re “not sure” if he’s part of the gang. This doubt is consistent across demographics: 39 percent of white people, 61 percent of black people, and 45 percent of Hispanics are unsure. Politically, 33 percent of Harris voters and 34 percent of Trump voters also express uncertainty.

Overall, only 27 percent affirmatively believe Abrego is an MS-13 member at present, while 30 percent think he is not.

Recent reports indicate Abrego was arrested in 2022 on suspicion of human trafficking, with eight passengers who all have his home address crammed into his SUV. The vehicle belonged to his “boss,” Jose Ramon Hernandez Reyes, a fellow Salvadoran illegal convicted of trafficking offenses in 2020.

Coupled with recent revelations that his wife filed for a protective order against him for alleged domestic violence, this undermines the media image of him as a blameless Maryland father with a clean criminal record. Further revelations about his alleged MS-13 and criminal ties may turn public opinion against him.

And just 27% are convinced he’s MS-13, as the Trump administration keeps saying.

(A plurality are not sure.) pic.twitter.com/Y51PacGBtL

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) April 23, 2025