A new study released by demographer Lyman Stone and sociologist Brad Wilcox reveals that a significant number of families left Minnesota in 2021 and 2022. The exodus occurred under the tenure of Kamala Harris’s 2024 running mate, Tim Walz, who has served as the state’s governor since 2019. Stone and Wilcox’s research challenges claims by some left-leaning commentators that Walz’s policies have been beneficial for families and children.
The report, published by the Institute for Family Studies, concludes that Minnesota experienced a net loss of families with children during the two years. Stone and Wilcox’s analysis of the American Community Survey data shows that the state ranked among the worst third in the nation for family migration, one of 18 states where more families left than moved in.
According to the research, Minnesota saw a net loss of 4,000 families from 2021 to 2022, a 0.3 percent decline, placing it 13th among states with the highest percentage of family migration losses. Among the top 12 states with the most significant declines, 10 had supported President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
In their report, Stone and Wilcox note that parents are increasingly moving away from states with far-left family, as well as diversity, equity, and inclusion policies. States like New York, California, Massachusetts, and Oregon, all known for their leftist political agendas, saw substantial family outflows. For instance, New York lost 71,000 families, a 1.9 percent decrease, while California saw a net loss of 92,000 families, a 1.2 percent decline.
In contrast, states that voted for former President Donald J. Trump in both 2016 and 2020 saw gains in family migration. The study points out that deeply Republican states, such as Idaho, reported the most significant percentage increase in family population, with a 2.3 percent rise from 2021 to 2022. Texas and Florida also saw considerable gains, with 53,000 and 38,000 families, respectively.
Stone and Wilcox suggest that COVID-19 partly drives this movement as families sought suburban and rural areas offering more space. Additionally, states with quicker school reopenings, new school choice laws, lower taxes, and strong job growth have become more attractive to parents. Cultural factors, such as resistance to far-left gender theory in schools, also contribute to the red state appeal.