With less than 30 days until the 2024 presidential election, one major polling average suggests former President Donald J. Trump is on pace for an Electoral College landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the polling aggregates compiled by RealClearPolitics (RCP), Trump holds the edge in five of the seven critical battleground states.
The data, comprised of an average of publically available presidential race polling in each state, shows Trump leading Harris in Georgia by 1.5 percent, Arizona by 1.4 percent, North Carolina by 0.6 percent, Michigan by 0.5 percent, and Pennsylvania by 0.2 percent. Harris, meanwhile, leads Trump in Nevada and Wisconsin by 1.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
#NEW Electoral college map based on @RCPolitics polling average
🟥 Trump 296 🏆
🟦 Harris 242
——
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +1.5
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +1.4
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +0.6
Michigan – 🔴 Trump+0.5
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +0.2
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris +0.6
Nevada – 🔵 Harris… pic.twitter.com/IBZ3JFhmDu— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
While the RCP average suggests Trump is on pace to win just shy of 300 electoral votes, the razor-thin margins in all seven states indicate the race remains statistically a toss-up between the two candidates. Despite an early surge in support following her entry into the 2024 race after President Biden was pressured out of seeking re-election, Harris’s polling numbers have plateaued in recent weeks.
The Vice President has struggled to consolidate support among both young and working-class voters. According to recent data released by the Teamsters Union, its members are breaking for Trump over Harris by a two-to-one ratio. In Pennsylvania, almost 50 percent of the state’s male population has just a high school diploma or less—often indicative of a working-class background.
Another deciding factor in the 2024 presidential election is likely to be the Hispanic vote. Trump is making significant gains among this critical demographic, especially among Hispanic men. The 2020 census indicates that Hispanics make up about 30 percent of the population in both Arizona and Nevada.