Rasmussen Reports’ head pollster, Mark Mitchell, says former President Donald J. Trump has taken the edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. According to Mitchell, Trump has opened up a three-point lead in their latest survey of the critical swing state, after being tied with Harris in their September poll.
“When I polled Pennsylvania in September, I had a tie. But that really was—you know—some of these major events they get a lot of press coverage on, they do get a juice for about two or three weeks. I think it is more what pollsters call a response bias than anybody actually changing their mind,” Mitchell said in a recent interview with Benny Johnson.
Mitchell explained that Harris’s September polling boost was likely driven by response bias following the presidential debate, adding that their data shows Trump taking the lead in October. “And when we went into the field, we got Trump plus three in Pennsylvania,” he said.
🚨MASSIVE
Rasmussen Head Pollster Mark Mitchell confirms Kamala’s cataclysmic polling collapse— puts Pennsylvania in Trump’s column:
“It’s done. Trump’s winning Pennsylvania.” pic.twitter.com/unNr3pdW0F
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 14, 2024
DEMOCRAT OVERSAMPLING.
The pollster went on to explain that while some surveys included in polling aggregates, like the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, still show Pennsylvania leaning slightly towards Harris, many of these polls overestimated support for Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Mitchell pointed specifically to the New York Times/Siena poll, noting: “They oversampled Biden 2020 supporters, like I said, by eight points.” He went on to note that when the oversample is taken into account, the poll suggests Pennsylvania is actually “Trump plus four.”
Last week, The National Pulse reported that the RCP—with less than 30 days before the November presidential election—suggests Trump could be headed towards an Electoral College landslide. According to the polling aggregate, Trump currently holds the edge in five of the seven critical battleground states.