Faith in President Donald J. Trump‘s reelection prospects has surged to new highs in the betting markets, with at least one now projecting Trump to have a 60 percent chance of winning the presidential race. Betting website Polymarket projects that Trump has a 59.7 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, at 40.2 percent.
Over $584 million has been placed on a Trump win on the platform, compared to $393 million for Harris. One user alone has bet nearly $10 million on the former president. The betting website had shown a close race between Trump and Harris from August up until this month. Still, Trump has pulled away in the last two weeks—suggesting a public perception that electoral momentum has decisively shifted.
Presidential race polling shows that Trump has gained ground in several key swing states, with polling firm Rasmussen projecting a win for Trump in Pennsylvania. Rasmussen Reports’ head pollster, Mark Mitchell, said other polls had oversampled Democrats, overestimating Harris’s true level of support. He noted similar trends in the 2020 election as polls overestimated support for Joe Biden.
Last week, RealClearPolitics (RCP) released an aggregate of polls showing Trump up in five of seven swing states. The aggregate projected that he could win the Electoral College with at least 296 votes, far above the 270 required.
Trump has made significant gains with traditionally Democrat demographics, including Hispanics and black men. The Hispanic vote could be crucial in states like Arizona and Nevada, where they comprise around 30 percent of the population.
Trump has also received support from the Mayor of Hamtramck, a city in Michigan with a Muslim-majority population, which could greatly benefit his chances of winning the swing state.