Historic shifts among a broad swath of the Pennsylvania electorate helped deliver victory for President-elect Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential race. The Trump campaign’s populist America First agenda saw broad appeal across demographics, with working-class and young voters especially drawn to the President-elect’s message.
According to exit polls conducted by CNN, Trump saw a 16-point shift among voters aged 18 to 29 compared to his showing in the 2020 presidential election. Voters identifying as political independents moved 15 points toward Trump. Meanwhile, Hispanics shifted 24 points in favor of the America First leader, while black men moved 31 points.
Even among demographics considered staunchly pro-Trump, the President-elect saw improvement—gaining eight points among non-college-educated voters and six points among men overall. Trump saw a four-point shift with voters earning under $50,000 annually—a group traditionally associated with casting ballots for Democrats.
The significant voter shift resulted in Trump capturing all four of the critical bellwether Pennsylvania counties: Bucks, Erie, Monroe, and Northampton. Notably, these areas also saw heavy voter turnout during early voting in the days before November 5. According to the Trump campaign’s chief data consultant, Tim Saler, the high turnout was driven largely by the campaign’s efforts to target and energize low and mid-propensity voters.
Saler, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), reveals: “A newly-registered voter generated from @TeamTrump target lists turned out at a 17 [percent] higher rate than all other new registrants in Pennsylvania, and 16 [percent] higher than all previously-registered voters—despite being 81 [percent] harder to reach.” Additionally, Saler notes low to mid-propensity voters contacted by campaign or otherwise-aligned canvassers “turned out at a 21 [percent] higher rate than an equivalent Harris voter.”