❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll suggests Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would win 311 Members of Parliament (MPs) across Britain in a general election, while Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s far-left Labour Party would drop to 144 seats, losing 267 MPs.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Reform, Labour, and other parties in Britain’s House of Commons.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Based on a sample of 13,000 people over the past three weeks, focusing on the UK, with specific outcomes in London and surrounding areas.
🎯IMPACT: Reform UK would fall short of an overall majority, leading to a hung parliament, with Labour reliant on London for its remaining seats.
A detailed constituency (electoral district)-level survey projects that Nigel Farage‘s Reform Party would secure 311 seats in Britain’s House of Commons in a general election, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party dropping to 144—a reduction of 267 MPs. Support for Starmer’s far-left party remains steadfast only in the hyper-diverse capital of London, where only around a third of the population is classed as ‘White British,’ with more than one-third of Labour’s projected seats based in London.
The survey, which sampled 13,000 people over the past three weeks, points to a strong potential for Nigel Farage to step into the role of Prime Minister—the first in roughly a century from neither Labour or the previously governing Conservative (Tory) Party.
Ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, attempting to build his own far-left, Palestinian issues-focused party, is expected to retain his London constituency as an independent. Numerous longstanding “Red Wall” Labour constituencies—named for the party’s traditional color—in the Midlands and Northern England are predicted to flip to Reform.
Notably, the projections indicate major defeats for prominent Labour members, including Cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, and Lisa Nandy, along with former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner. Even so, at a projected 311 seats, Farage’s party would be the largest in the House of Commons but 15 short of an outright majority, requiring it to form a minority government or strike deals with smaller right-leaning parties in a so-called ‘Hung Parliament.’
Join Pulse+ to comment below, and receive exclusive e-mail analyses.