❓WHAT HAPPENED: Allies of U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) have spent tens of millions to bail out his reelection campaign, but new polling shows him falling to third place behind challengers Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), Representative Wesley Hunt (R-TX), and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

📍WHEN & WHERE: The GOP primary’s first round of voting is scheduled for early March, with a potential runoff in late May in Texas.

🎯IMPACT: Cornyn could fail to make the runoff; challengers like Paxton and Hunt are gaining momentum among GOP voters.

U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) could lose his reelection bid without even making it to the general election, according to new polling of the Republican primary race in which he will face Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and Representative Wesley Hunt (R-TX). With just weeks to go before the initial March vote—and the race likely going to a runoff in May—Cornyn trails both Paxton and Hunt, meaning he may not advance to the next round of the primary contest.

The J.L. Partners poll, released on Thursday, shows Paxton, an ally of President Donald J. Trump, leading the field with 27 percent of the vote, followed by Hunt at 25.7 percent. Meanwhile, Cornyn has fallen behind Hunt, at 25.5 percent. An additional 21.7 percent of voters say they remain undecided on which candidate they will back.

Notably, the polling in the primary race has narrowed from late last year, with a December survey showing Paxton at 29 percent and Cornyn and Hunt tied at 24 percent. The inability of Cornyn to generate significant movement in his polling numbers, despite allied SuperPACs spending upwards of $50 million in support of his campaign, suggests the 74-year-old Republican could face the toughest reelection bid in his nearly 24 years in the U.S. Senate. Conversely, the Lone Star Liberty PAC—backing Paxton—has spent just one percent of what Cornyn’s allies have.

Throughout the campaign, Sen. Cornyn has sought to portray him as an ally to President Donald J. Trump, while personally attacking Paxton and branding him a “fraud.” However, Paxton’s record as a Trump supporter is solid, while Cornyn previously argued against the America First leader standing for reelection in 2024 and lobbied Congress not to oppose the lawfare campaign against him. The National Pulse reported in May of last year that, in an effort to keep Trump from endorsing in the primary race, a SuperPAC backing Cornyn hired former Trump campaign chief and Republican National Committee (RNC) Chief Operating Officer (COO) Chris LaCivita as a senior advisor.

Despite the overwhelming money advantage and support from key GOP figures and political organizations like the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Cornyn has trailed Paxton in polling for most of the race. With it unlikely that any of the candidates will secure a majority of the vote outright in March, a runoff election will be held in May. If Cornyn cannot move ahead of either Hunt or Paxton, he’ll be eliminated from the race—with the top two candidates advancing. The winner of the runoff will face either Democrat state Rep. James Talarico or Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in November’s general election.

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