The Mail on Sunday says Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has “stormed to an eight-point poll lead” over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party. The survey upon which the “Tory lead” headline is based was conducted by Conservative Party donor, former deputy chairman, and peer, Lord Ashcroft.
The Ashcroft poll puts Labour on 31 percent, the Conservatives on 26 and Reform UK on 18. But that splash should not be read as if Ashcroft is measuring the same thing as British Polling Council (BPC) accredited pollsters like YouGov, Opinium, More in Common, or Deltapoll. In fact, Ashcroft polls use a totally different methodology, and it often skews against Reform.
The Method.
Ashcroft polls do not ask people which party they would pick if there were an election tomorrow. They ask people to score, from 0 to 100, how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election. They then count those whose highest score is at least 50. Someone who is 55 Conservative and 45 Reform still counts as Conservative. Someone who would pick Reform in a forced choice, but will not give them 50, may not count as a Reform voter at all.
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