Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has established a double-digit polling lead ahead of English local elections and regional elections in Scotland and Wales.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has opened up a ten-point lead over their nearest rivals, the formerly fringe, far-left Green Party, and the notionally “center-right” Conservative Party, which governed from 2010 to mid-2024, ahead of crunch elections across England, Scotland, and Wales in May. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour Party has fallen to fourth place. 📰 DETAIL: YouGov’s latest Westminster (House of Commons) voting intention survey, conducted from April 19 to April 20, puts Reform at 27 percent support, a three-point increase from the previous week. The Greens and the Conservatives are tied at 17 percent, being down by one and two points since last week, respectively. Labour, down one point, trails at 16 percent, with the center-left Liberal Democrats up one point to 14 percent. Restore Britain, founded by Member of Parliament (MP) Rupert Lowe after he was ejected from Reform, is polling at just three percent. 🎯 IMPACT: While the Labour Party is currently unlikely to call fresh national elections before the legal deadline in August 2029, the poll results have implications for local and regional elections in England, Scotland, and Wales next month. A swathe of English local councils are holding municipal elections on May 7, while Scotland and Wales are holding elections for their devolved parliaments—roughly equivalent to state legislatures in the U.S. Heavy losses to Reform could prompt Labour MPs to oust the increasingly unpopular Keir Starmer as party leader and, by extension, Prime Minister, particularly as he is currently embroiled in a scandal over the appointment of the Jeffrey Epstein-linked Peter Mandelson as his ambassador to the U.S. Farage is capitalizing on Starmer’s unpopularity ahead of the May elections, framing them as a de facto referendum on his premiership. 💬 KEY QUOTE: “Vote Reform. Get Starmer Out.” – Nigel Farage |
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 19-20 April 2026
Reform UK: 27% (+3 from 12-13 April)
Greens: 17% (-1)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (=) pic.twitter.com/QDM2M2k87S— YouGov (@YouGov) April 21, 2026
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